Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Would you believe it'd remain flat in 2015 and possibly this year and in 2017 as well
no surprise with valuations high . the rally which started in 2008 has to level out at some point as the averages float back down to more normal levels . when stocks saw 14% average returns for 17 years from 1987 to 2003 the years from 2000 on unwound them and brought them back to just normal returns today .like water long periods of time tend to move back towards the average
The great disadvantage of Japan is that they peaked demographically some 25 years before the rest of the industrialized world. Their baby boom was in the 1920s and 1930s. So yes, of course demographics matter. Japan was at demographic disadvantage. But America is at demographic advantage.
How many of you guys regularly travel to Europe? Ever walked down a typical European street? See anyone pushing baby-strollers? Whenever I go to an American restaurant, save for the priciest ones, there's invariably hordes of families with kids... little, annoying, noisy kids. Not so in Europe. Not so in Australia. Not so in Singapore. OK, maybe in Israel. But everywhere else, it's as if people gave up reproducing. America's demographic advantage is staggering, and will remain that way, unless we ruin it with xenophobia and kneejerk nihilism.
It me, it is inconceivably that the Dow would still be 18,000 in 2036, adjusted for inflation. But I'm not a redoubtable optimist. So many of our pension-funds, retirement-plans, university endowments, insurance company portfolios, sovereign wealth funds and so forth, assume something like an 8% annual rate of return. What's 8% over 20 years? It's a factor of 4.66. The Dow would have to hit about 84,000 by 2036! And that, admittedly, is pretty optimistic.
The problem isn't that we're going to lose money over 20 years, Japan-style. The problem is that our gains won't be enough to comport with the assumptions that are necessary to support our lifestyle.
The problem isn't that we're going to lose money over 20 years, Japan-style. The problem is that our gains won't be enough to comport with the assumptions that are necessary to support our lifestyle.
exactly my concern and the concern of other retirees or those close to it .
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
