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The "oh well I was wrong in 2013" is how it is described if they were wrong, but if right it morphs into "see I knew" and is attributed as wisdom.
You guys are a rough crowd.
I said that I 'knew' the markets were acting very strangely in 2008 and had the foresight to get out of all risky assets. That's a fair statement to make.
I also said that I felt MA was a very good bet when was at $87, to climb to $95. That seems like a fair statement, I didn't claim any special knowledge, just that I felt it was a good time to buy.
Again.....isn't that what we should all be doing on these boards?
How did you derive the 87/95 price point for Mastercard
MA is one of those Warren Buffett 'wonderful' companies..... it's a rock.... and it was on sale back in February - trading in the mid 80's. High for the year was a bit over $100, I figured a rebound to the mid 90's was very probable.
I feel like there is a correction to at least Dow 15,000 due at some point in the near to medium term. Maybe 13,000 but I find that less likely.
I don't see anything that would cause a 60% drop like in 2008-09. The banks seem to be relatively healthy. Our big national economic problem is income/wealth inequality that causes slow growth, but that is like a festering sore, not an unexpected shock. The markets can do fine even when a lot of main street is just muddling along.
The real problem in 2007-08 was not that no one realized the market was inflated, is was that no one was quite congnizant of how far the rabbit hole went with CDOs, default swaps, etc... Smart people knew that sub-prime mortgages were bad. But what should have been a 20% correction turned out to be much worse because of the corrupt dealing going on that almost destroyed the banks.
The exacerbate of income inequality is the FED has been doing all the lifting. So people with money get richer. The current president has done nothing. Check the FED minutes, they said they can only do so much. It's not the cause, it's the reverse.
The "oh well I was wrong in 2013" is how it is described if they were wrong, but if right it morphs into "see I knew" and is attributed as wisdom.
I did mention I was wrong in 2000, and lost boat load. I was too focus on my career, I was at a start up.
I don't want to lose anymore. Hence my cautious. I might lose in inflation but it's much gradual.
I can't understand people who think you should keep your head in the sand and not pay attention to obvious trends. "You can't time the market" is a comment on day trading, not on long term investing.
No, it's a comment on decades (centuries?) of investment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
It was obvious in 2006 that there was going to be a recession fairly soon. You would have to have been willfully blind to miss the signs.
If this was obvious to you, then in all sincerity, I commend you for your insight. To me it was the antithesis of obvious. To me it felt "obvious" in 2006 that Europe (yes, Europe) was going to finally lead the world out of the morass and malaise of the post-dot-com hangover.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
There were plenty of stories about people who lost their homes, or who had to cash in their retirement investments at the bottom of the market because they were upside down on their homes.
I am not qualified to offer financial advice, but as an amateur buy-and-hold acolyte, I would recommend substantial investment in equities ONLY for people who already have a secure income-stream from other means, and no significant debts or upcoming expenses.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell
stocks are not going to be a good investment in the foreseeable future.
Perhaps. But what other passive investments would do better? I'm not sufficiently energetic or erudite to become a landlord or to start my own business. So it's either stocks, bonds, cash, or maybe REITs or whatnot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40
It's easier and more profitable to simply tell everyone to 'stay the course' and 'invest for the long term' than it is to put in some sell recommendations and tell people to go to cash or (gasp) buy some inversely moving products.
On the contrary, investment-professionals make money from (1) commissions/fees, (2) paid advice and (3) brokering transactions. Buy-and-hold in index-funds means no management-fees, no need for advice and few transactions. It's decidedly unprofitable. Profit comes from scaring people and telling them that only a seasoned pro can navigate the travails of modern investment, and that frequent portfolio-realignments are necessary to stay abreast of rapidly-evolving trends.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerGeek40
Even Warren Buffett guesses. ... It's all a gamble - the only question is how well you are able to do the guesswork.
Lacking clairvoyance, yes, of course we all guess. I'm guessing that I won't be killed in this evening's commute back home, or that I won't die in my sleep... so I'm guessing that tomorrow I'll need to buy food somewhere, and maybe even take a shower and brush my teeth.
All of life is ultimately a gamble. That statement is just an admission of our finitude and paucity of knowledge. In that sense, yes, I gamble.
But stock market investment is only a "gamble", in the sense of a big bet, in that modern industrial capitalism won't collapse, or aliens don't enslave planet earth, or we don't witness a Second Coming during our lifetime. People who think that the stock market is a "gamble", like horse-racing or slot-machines, assuredly will embrace frequent trading and hedging. That explains a lot!
I can't understand people who think you should keep your head in the sand and not pay attention to obvious trends. "You can't time the market" is a comment on day trading, not on long term investing.
It's not about "should," it's about reality. I've said a few times that I wasn't focused on watching the market at.all because...I simply was focusing my attention completely elsewhere. So in 2008 with the crash, I didn't react or look at my accounts. I already had a chunk in cash. I also know better than to panic and sell as I was just starting to invest when 1987 happened and I knew I would have to ignore the monies I just invested (which weren't that much) and not sell. I wasn't going to stop contributing to my 401K at work in 2008 and onward. Business as usual.
There's a whole investing philosophy based on passive investing as well as "couch potato investing." I'm sure you've heard of it. It's not for everyone, but it serves a purpose for those who don't want to do much thinking about it. You can't get equity gains without being in the market. If you panic (as many do), that can leave you with losses you never regain. If you look at various 10 year time horizons and see funds that are generating over 8% on average, that's not too bad, especially if you have 10+ years to invest.
Life is a risk, you just have to decide how much risk to take when it comes to investing, and decide how active you want to be in following the market. If you're willing to accept moderate risk to slightly aggressive risk and diversify, you'll be fine over the long haul.
MA is one of those Warren Buffett 'wonderful' companies..... it's a rock.... and it was on sale back in February - trading in the mid 80's. High for the year was a bit over $100, I figured a rebound to the mid 90's was very probable.
Everything was on sale in February, a monkey throwing a dart could've made money.
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