Yellen sucks! (bond, hedge fund, trading, dividends)

[mathjak107]

i can't believe here you are with all the answers and they aren't paying you billions to solve the problems of the world .

you gotta love monday morning quarterbacking .

[bUU]

• If you only see things from one perspective then other perspectives will never look reasonable to you.
• There may be no approach that avoids both of two pitfalls at the end of a path, in which case it may make the most sense to mitigate the impact of the path and its end for the most vulnerable.

[NewbieHere]

Yellen and her people should be fired. Building to bigger bubble.

[mathjak107]

we really do not know that . we all like to make our arm chair predictions and we all rationalize as to why it has to be but reality says there are always things not on the radar yet or things we do not know or consider that make what we thought wrong .

that is why these definitive kinds of statements and views on these kinds of discussions usually end up wrong and are usually made by people who run on only what others who share their views spew . they have little deep knowledge of the other side of things nor have a well rounded perspective . .

[NewbieHere]

I don't know but the 2 Feds before her build the biggest bubbles and they all bursted terribly. The market seems like it's going for another one. It sounds like we maybe heading toward negative interest rate.

[mathjak107]

bubbles , downturns and crashes have been part of the business cycle for more then 100 years . there may be different things that kick things off each time but the results are always the same .

i have been hearing about the collapse of things being right around the corner since i started investing more then 30 years ago and i bet you 30 years from now we will still be hearing about it .

in the mean time many of us did very well , we have kids that are doing very well , and life goes on .
i still believe if you concentrate on your own path , play the cards you are dealt and if you are motivated you will find a way to do just fine regardless , without blaming everyone else for your own lack of success .
i see it with many of the youngin's today . you have those that lag and float to where life pulls them and others take control to get where they want to be in life and make things happen for themselves ..

considering we had two back to back major recessions in one decade with one being an almost total collapse of the financial system i certainly think we are doing a whole lot less bad then we were and were on a path that could have been far worse .

all those complaining could have been trying to sell fruit from a table in the street at this stage if things went badly back in 2008 .

like taking medicine when you are sick , you never know if you got better on your own or it was the medicine .

there are no double blind tests with fed policy .

but who cares , the fact is we are far better then we were in 2008 and that is all that counts .

[NewbieHere]

I don't expect Amargadon but certainly 20-30% drop.

[mathjak107]

so do i at some point , we always do when we enter that part of the business cycle , nothing out of the ordinary .

in fact even in a normal year the range of a typical stock ranges about 50% from high to low .
which is why as a retiree i keep a fairly conservative portfolio that maintains a comfort range that lets me sleep if stocks fall 20 to 30% while still meeting my income goals .

[oneslip]

C2BP has made a very realistic post of exactly what has/ is occurring. Thank you for so eloquently writing it out in detail.


mathjak107 is correct that there is always talk of a crash, no matter what one can make an argument for what equities should fall. One thing to think about mathjak is what caused the two recessions you mentioned, deregulation and over accommodative policies. Greenspan was slammed for keeping rates too for too long after the 90's recession/collapse & removing regulations that were created after the Great Depression removing banks, brokers and insurance companies removed played a significant role in the '08 recession.


The Fed has a way out...keep slowly & gradually raising interest rates, ignore wall street's temper tantrum & remain independent based solely on the data.


Arm chair quarterbacking or not- I think everyone can see that assets are being artificially inflated. I realize everyone is truly only concerned about themselves and as long as my net worth is increasing who cares if policies are causing harm in the long run. Hopefully it will not be my problem when it finally does crash. Just sayin.......


I view this is tough love that one has to take with a child, of course the child would like to eat ice cream for dinner every night and of course the child will throw a temper tantrum but in the long run it is healthier for the child, just like bed time.

[mathjak107]

of course the question is would that child be healthier eating the ice cream every night with all of its good quality's and protein then junk food and garbage because that may be the alternative choice when things are forced to go south and we loose jobs and money to live on .

i don't think anyone here would want to be out a job or as a retiree have to go find work just so the outcome for most folks that they will see from higher rates will be higher prices for everything as the cost of money comes back in to the equation .

the risk of shock to an already struggling economy can reach the tipping point if we are not careful . higher rates act as a tax and give most americans less to live on . .. the meger savings they have to get interest on is like peeing in the ocean compared to what they would spend in higher rents , auto loans ,school loans , mortgages , refi's ,etc .

i can tell you i see no benefit for most of us to higer rates as higher rates and higher inflation go hand in hand . all we will do is spend more to live .