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There is ALWAYS something to worry about. Accordingly never invest ever! Sit on the sidelines in cash until there is nothing to worry about. That is the key to attaining great wealth. http://www.ci.com/orderform/pdf/gene...t_poster_e.pdf
There is ALWAYS something to worry about. Accordingly never invest ever! Sit on the sidelines in cash until there is nothing to worry about. That is the key to attaining great wealth. http://www.ci.com/orderform/pdf/gene...t_poster_e.pdf
Just wondering peoples opinions, I am riding it out but wonder how far down people think it will go since there is a lot of uncertainty involved in how brexit will work?
What down market? The US indices have neared all-time highs in recent months and weeks, Friday's 3% off-day is mere profit-taking, with Brexit a convenient excuse.
I'd be more concerned about corporate earnings, on the one hand, and more than a decade of cockamamie monetary policy on the other.
The S&P 500 looks like it has been forming a top for the last two months. It hasn't quite fallen out of that range yet. It usually takes about 4 to 6 weeks to go from top to bottom. The current pattern is about 6 to 8 weeks from the trough to markup prices to the initial peak, approximately another 8 weeks in a 3-5 percent sideways range about the peak while shares are distributed to the public, and then 3-6 weeks to mark down prices to another intermediate-term 6-month low.
none of us see much upside , which is why the odds are we will all once again be wrong . it is always that which is not even on the radar yet that always changes what we all see .
bear markets rarely happen when everyone is so pessimistic and so much money is out of equity's .
none of us see much upside , which is why the odds are we will all once again be wrong . it is always that which is not even on the radar yet that always changes what we all see .
bear markets rarely happen when everyone is so pessimistic and so much money is out of equity's .
I don't think people are pessimistic.
But we have to be realists, there's never gonna be another bull market run like this one.
before the 1980's bull market started stocks were declared dead as an asset class . they were dead in the water for years with no hope at all .
with business week magazine declaring the death of equity's , complete with tombstone on the cover ,stocks were no longer believed to be a viable useful asset class .
anyone who thought they could see the future was dead wrong and out of the ashes the greatest bull market in history happened .
the answer is you don't know how things will eventually play out long term
But we have to be realists, there's never gonna be another bull market run like this one.
S&P 500 moved from 600 to 2000!!
I don't think it's gonna be 6000 a decade later.
Have another look at the mid-late 1990s; 20+% gains, year after year after year. After such a period, the sentiment becomes giggly and intoxicated. People come to believe that the rally will never subside, and that there will never be another bear-market, or even another period of stagnation. Today the phrase "New Economy" triggers vitriol and contempt, a rolling of the eyes, skepticism and regret. 20 years ago "New Economy" meant that we finally slayed stagflation, that stocks have become the best investment-vehicle for the masses, that progress and prosperity are inevitable. Remember Francis Fukuyama, and "The End of History"? Everyone was supposed to recognize that capitalist democracy was the only tenable means of organizing society. Barriers were supposed to fall, goods and services to flow, and everyone was going to be wealthy and happy.
The bull market of 2009-2014 was merely a recovery from the crushing losses of 2007-2008, and 2000-2003. Look at the bigger picture. In the spring of 2000, the S&P 500 was at 1500+. More than 16 years later, it stands at just over 2000. How has this cumulatively been a bull market? If this is a "bull market run", then what does a bear market look like?
There is ALWAYS something to worry about. Accordingly never invest ever! Sit on the sidelines in cash until there is nothing to worry about. That is the key to attaining great wealth. http://www.ci.com/orderform/pdf/gene...t_poster_e.pdf
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