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I'd like to thank the good folks at Activision Blizzard for appealing to a general audience. Additional shout out to Jeff Bezos for becoming Buy N' Large from the movie Wall-E, and last but not least, thanks to GE for keeping me honest. Couldn't do it without you folks!
Just kidding guys, I got lucky in the bull market of 2017
even tossing out the top/bottom three as outliers, the portfolio average doesn't do much/if any better than the s&p/index funds... going by the small sample size, at least we know stock pickers aren't that good at stock picking if doing it from home
even tossing out the top/bottom three as outliers, the portfolio average doesn't do much/if any better than the s&p/index funds... going by the small sample size, at least we know stock pickers aren't that good at stock picking if doing it from home
Huh? I am not sure what the portfolio average has to do with anything. 11 of 19 beat "the average" anyway. Only four people even lost money. I think people did pretty well for what would amount to pressing a buy button on their home computer.
even tossing out the top/bottom three as outliers, the portfolio average doesn't do much/if any better than the s&p/index funds... going by the small sample size, at least we know stock pickers aren't that good at stock picking if doing it from home
Apples and Oranges. In real life you would trade the portfolio and adjust your portfolio based on new information. You also wouldn't necessarily peg your purchase on the calendar start date. Finally, this is a game, so there's no real detriment for taking something totally risky that is going to crush it if they turn around.
Personally, I play it as a proxy for what I believe will happen in the upcoming year. For 2017, I had 4 predictions. Profitable tech issues would crush it (GIMO), The US overall would crush it (BRK-B), Aeronautical and Space issues would rise rapidly (LMT) and copper prices would spike up (FCX).
I held all of my positions at some point in the year. GIMO (first, last and only time) got dumped after the CEO's comments about order timing in Q4 16's discussion didn't materialize in Q1. That was my sole material losing trade this year in real life. However, I was able to make that up in several other profitable tech trades during the year in real life, but in the game, I'm tied to that issue.
Obviously, large US issues did very well this year, and for a bit, BRK-B was lagging but doing well too. However, that got sold as the hurricanes came rolling through as I feared the exposure in Geico. But that money was able to be shifted into other stocks...notably BECN...that popped quite nicely.
LMT and defense/aeronautical issues (excepting GE of course) had a great year. I've lightened my position as we get higher, but still have it.
And FCX. Once the talk became of not being able to export, that was a quick sell. Copper prices did skyrocket during the year....albeit later backing off...so my prediction was not that great. While I made some money there, I made more money on Zinc with that materials money later in the year....notably in TECK which is listed as a coal producer.
Of course, you can then step back and say....see many times your prediction was ok, but your specific issue risk cost you. And for the game, you'd be right. But in real life, small stock pickers can maneuver rapidly without risk of upsetting the markets. I'll utilize funds to invest in market segments I like, but don't know enough or don't have access to make specific decisions, but I'll still want to rectify that.
Finally, I like to think I pick better than I did 10 years ago, and better then than the 10 years previously. When I retire, I'd like to think I'll have built up enough confidence to still trade. At the same time, I like to think that I won't get overconfident from a year like 2017 where everything wins.
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