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the exact results will not duplicate but i would bet anything the portfolio behavior stays the same , volatility and likelihood of losing years vs other models .
What do you mean, stays the same? There is very little consistently in the past from year to year or even between similar portfolios.
yes there is . a 60/40 is more volatile than many of the others all the time and it does not produce better results on a risk adjusted basis most of the time if you look at the heat maps .
100% equity will always have more volatility than 60/40 and likely higher gains as well as hedged portfolio's will pretty much have lass volatility and less losing years than 60/40 .
You need HIGH inflation with sluggish growth for gold to take off.
Gold is not an inflation hedge. Gold took off in early 2016. There was no particular reason.
Gold took off in 2001 and made a great run till 2011 - also - for no particular reason.
Gold is not an inflation hedge. It never was. Not ever.
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Originally Posted by jrkliny
First gold has minimal industrial value. Some of it is used for electrical connections and on circuit boards.
It depends on your definition of "minimal." $4 billion or so is not minimal to me.
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Originally Posted by jrkliny
Those uses are very minimal compared with the interest in gold for ornamentation or for hoarding as a means of preserving wealth.
This is true.
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Originally Posted by jrkliny
Gold production way outstrips the amount of gold used industrially.
This also true and irrelevant. Gold "PRODUCTION" has essentially nothing to do with the supply. Production could double or go to zero with little effect.
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Originally Posted by jrkliny
The inhabitants of India and a small number of countries largely determine the demand and value of gold.
Yeah a small number like the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Germany. Those countries don't really register .... The Middle Kingdom ... nah ...
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Originally Posted by jrkliny
The lower and middle classes of those countries have the biggest effect since many of them keep their wealth in the form of gold.
The "upper classes" also keep wealth in gold for varying degrees of minimal.
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Originally Posted by jrkliny
Long term gold has not come close to keeping up with other investments such as equities.
YES! This is the correct answer. Even short term, you can find equities that did better. .... I mean, as long as you are throwing darts ( not you, jrliny or a_g, but the investor//speculator in general )
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Originally Posted by jrkliny
Gold prices can fluctuate substantially within a few years. For example prices were over $1900/oz a few years ago and are now under $1300/oz.
That's true. It was also just $260 15 or so years ago. It was a different price at other times. Who cares?
Later on, it will be over $10,000 an ounce and it still won't matter. Your comment about "keeping up with other investments such as equities" is all that matters.
I buy and sell gold all the time. It's fun and I'm good at it ( short & long ). I'm a huge gold bug.
I would never recommend buying a $15k stack of coins all at once - especially if one "basically know(s) nothing about gold." That would just be nutty.
At MOST, I would recommend buying an old US $2-1/2 gold coin ( size of a dime ) for $160-200 and to sit on it for a few months.
I have $15,000 to my disposal (aside from my own emergency savings) that I am considering buying gold with; not as an investment, but as a hedge against inflation in this volatile world we live in. I have a good job and contract work for the next 2 years, and family that can help me in a worst case scenario.
I plan on keeping this money in gold form for at least a year and a half, if not more (which I know is next to nothing) but I don't mind paying a "fee" for transactions costs, as long as it's not $300 big.
But, I basically know nothing about gold other than: there are coins, bullion, certificates, and ETFs, and I'm sure that in a worst case scenario (economic collapse) some of those options would not be ideal....
I'll be checking this post through the night as I may have follow up questions, but thank you in advance for taking time to give me advice. Have a safe weekend!
If we have an economic collapse, your gold is going to be worthless.
In that scenario you would want a gun, ammo, skills, a car or truck, and food/medicine. Anytime you see people in a movie running from a disaster with money or something expensive—you can rest assured that they died shortly thereafter.
actually gold has performed okay as an inflation hedge however it has done it over very long periods of time like 60 years or more.
That makes it a store of value.
I defy you to find someone who would buy it as an inflation hedge so that their purchasing power would be good after half a century.
EVERYONE posting here under the impression that gold offers protection from inflation write that they are looking to be in it for just a portion of a year or so.
Yup. Just buy some PMs and sit tight while inflation rages for a few years and you'll come out OK on the other side. THAT's an inflation hedge.
A half century - get real.
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Originally Posted by Xelfer
If we have an economic collapse, your gold is going to be worthless.
In that scenario you would want a gun, ammo, skills, a car or truck, and food/medicine. Anytime you see people in a movie running from a disaster with money or something expensive—you can rest assured that they died shortly thereafter.
Getting your "economic collapse" info from Hollywood is a poor way to plan your investments.
Visualizing how YOU personally will function with your guns & ammo from Sylvester or Bruce or Jason or Liam ..... et al ... is also a poor way to predict how you will fare in an "economic collapse." Your gun is also worthless. There's always someone better than you to kill you and take your gun.
Hollywood also likes to show large fleets of vehicles driving around after all the refineries have shut down. Your car or truck will be a worthless slug - easily stolen for any fuel you still have.
Gold only works in a functioning economy. It's never been any different ( outside of Hollywood. ). The gold bugs buying it to protect them from "economic collapse" are just as whacked as gun nuts that think their weapons/ammo offer any protection.
In an "economic collapse" we're all screwed. Thinking you'll be OK is WHACKED.
gold offers protection from high inflation if it effects the dollar and weakens it , which is generally what high to hyper inflation does . but at 3-4% inflation , it does little in that respect.
i never said someone should wait 50 years for gold to match inflation . it is just a fact it can take at least 50 years unless a weak dollar is involved .
gold offers protection from high inflation if it effects the dollar and weakens it , which is generally what high to hyper inflation does . but at 3-4% inflation , it does little in that respect........
There were periods of hyperinflation in the mid 70s to about 1980. Gold certainly increased in value greatly during that time period. Because the two were correlated once does not mean that will happen again. The price of oil and gas shot upwards at the same time. That does not mean that hyperinflation, gold and oil prices are all some how dependent on one another or that you can use one of the variables to predict the others.
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