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If you see form market data that Dow, Nasdaq and S&P all down during the day, chances are most of your equity funds' NAVs would do the same in the evening. The same for, say large cap, foreign, etc. What will indicate bond funds' possible NAV direction? Does the 10-year yield tell something?
If you see form market data that Dow, Nasdaq and S&P all down during the day, chances are most of your equity funds' NAVs would do the same in the evening. The same for, say large cap, foreign, etc. What will indicate bond funds' possible NAV direction? Does the 10-year yield tell something?
That depends on the bond fund. Treasury bond funds will of course be inversely correlated to the Treasury yields but the short, intermediate and long yields don't necessarily correlate to one another. Corporate bond funds are influenced by both Treasury yields and equity prices. It's complex.
the longer you go out the more fear , greed , perception and credit risk play a roll . the shorter you go out the more interest rate responsive to short term moves.
raising short term rates can be bad for short term bonds , while longer term bondscan see it as a positive reigning in inflation and slowing the economy-longer term bonds like that
If you see form market data that Dow, Nasdaq and S&P all down during the day, chances are most of your equity funds' NAVs would do the same in the evening. The same for, say large cap, foreign, etc. What will indicate bond funds' possible NAV direction? Does the 10-year yield tell something?
Are you asking what is a predictor of bond fund NAV, or asking what it correlates to? The two are different. NAV is of course related to yield but the yield is not a predictor for NAV, it is just another way of expressing the value of a bond - you tell me the yield and maturity of a bond and I will tell you what its price (and NAV) is. And vice-versa.
As far as a predictor of NAV - there really is none since doing so would predict yield, and nobody knows which way interest rates are going. Bond NAV tend to go up when equities go down, since money managers tend to put the money gotten from selling stocks into bonds. And vice-versa. But that is a tendency that does not always hold.
Are you asking what is a predictor of bond fund NAV, or asking what it correlates to?
I mean, simply, on a given day, as we watch on, say, msnbc, cnn, yahoo's real time stock market's up and downs, we can have a guess if most equity funds (say domestic small cap, european fund, or a sector fund) in our portfolio will end up up/down at the end of the day. I was asking if there is a place/indicator so we could make a guess about, say, long term bond funds, whether it will be green or red at the day's end. e.g. I'm considering selling my long/intermediate bond fund. If I am to pick one of these days to sell, I want to lose a bit less by avoiding selling on a big down day.
I mean, simply, on a given day, as we watch on, say, msnbc, cnn, yahoo's real time stock market's up and downs, we can have a guess if most equity funds (say domestic small cap, european fund, or a sector fund) in our portfolio will end up up/down at the end of the day. I was asking if there is a place/indicator so we could make a guess about, say, long term bond funds, whether it will be green or red at the day's end. e.g. I'm considering selling my long/intermediate bond fund. If I am to pick one of these days to sell, I want to lose a bit less by avoiding selling on a big down day.
Well, bonds have recovered most of their losses since the election. So if you want to sell, now's the time. But you have to carefully consider the consequences. If deflation comes back, or geopolitical conflicts get worse, you will regret selling those bond funds, especially if those are Treasury bond funds.
I mean, simply, on a given day, as we watch on, say, msnbc, cnn, yahoo's real time stock market's up and downs, we can have a guess if most equity funds (say domestic small cap, european fund, or a sector fund) in our portfolio will end up up/down at the end of the day. I was asking if there is a place/indicator so we could make a guess about, say, long term bond funds, whether it will be green or red at the day's end. e.g. I'm considering selling my long/intermediate bond fund. If I am to pick one of these days to sell, I want to lose a bit less by avoiding selling on a big down day.
About the best you can do is assume bonds will go up when stocks go down. It is not always true, but is often true. But that is a very short term effect, like one day. It does not do much for you long term, i.e., two days later bonds could drop like a rock or go up like crazy.
If it were possible to accurately predict, people would use that and the prediction would be arbitraged away. If you are determined to sell some bond fund, there is no time like the present. Just do it.
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