Conoco-Phillips COP--Buy, sell or hold? (growth fund, dividend, income, markets)

[cb73]

I bought COP several years ago for around $70. It's now $46 with a price target of $51.

On the sell side:

* Their income seems to be more about selling bits and parts than generating sales of their primary business.
* Their dividend went from $2.94 to $1.00.
* They have a ton of debt
* They've shown a loss for at least the last 4 quarters

On the buy/hold side:

* A bunch of value/growth funds are investing right now--they're seeing future growth?
* Company insiders are investing now

According to their latest quarterly report, they plan to use some of the money from selling a part of the company to buy back shares.

I don't need to sell, and don't need the loss for income tax purposes. But am I on a slow train to nowhere?

Do you own COP? Would you buy? Sell?

[wheelsup]

I don't own commodity companies because it's impossible to predict where the underlying asset is headed. I remember years ago when oil was mid 60's we were all talking like it wouldn't, couldn't go any higher. It hit $150. Then it fell to $30. Then it went up again to $100. Then it feel to $25. Now it's around $50.

Just no way to even speculate on those sorts of gyrations IMO.

I'm not too keen on electric cars but if what the talking heads are saying is true, electrification will turn the industry on its head. The US will produce enough oil for our own needs with zero need to import. India/China are pushing HARD HARD HARD on electric cars to (mostly) cut down on smog but it will have a destabilizing effect on the oil markets too.

[ohio_peasant]

I have a small position in COP, from before the Great Recession. Since then, they've spun off Phillips-66, so the drop in COP share price is somewhat attributable to the spinoff.

COP's future is uncertain, and I make no recommendation - pro or con. My personal impression is that COP has evinced the same tendency as what Exxon had some years ago - namely, do less in the oil/gas business, and more of divestment, turning themselves into what might be termed a holding-company.