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Old 08-18-2017, 07:54 AM
 
3,271 posts, read 2,189,152 times
Reputation: 2458

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Quote:
Originally Posted by FREE866 View Post
I'm laughing because I thought your post was drivel

1-the market is very efficient

2-fundamental analysis is still in tact and always will be

3-and the market provides an excellent way to provide long term returns to help with funding aretirement

You're right I shouldn't have just lol'd you...sorry

i just disagree with everything you say and usually your post is a reflection of someone who has totally missed this bull market hence my question about % exposure
1 - How can the market be efficient when there are liquidity injections by central banks into equities and the majority of trading (> 80%) is algorithmic, which are behavioral in nature, striving to take advantage of market inefficiencies.

2 - I agree that fundamentals win in the long term, and the result will be catastrophic, particularly when liquidity injections that artificially inflate the market discontinue.

3 - The median estimate for technological singularity is 2040. It will not take that long for the majority of human labor capital to be replaced by technology. It will occur much sooner than you think, which will result in billions of not just unemployed people, but unemployable people. How do you propose that people can retire when there are no customers? At some point, governments or more likely, the government, will have to propose some sort of basic living income or deal with the "human problem" by other means.

Are you one of those people that feel as if you're a genius because you managed to invest in an artificially inflated market with historically low interest rates?

Any dummy could have made money in this market. That is not my concern. My concern is with what happens next. You are ultimately not protected based on what will likely occur in the future.

Plus, given the algorithmic nature of the market, and previous "flash crashes," the market could hit its circuit breaker so rapidly that people won't even realized it happened until it's too late.

I don't understand your arrogance.
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Old 08-18-2017, 08:04 AM
 
2,009 posts, read 1,211,642 times
Reputation: 3752
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster View Post
1 - How can the market be efficient when there are liquidity injections by central banks into equities and the majority of trading (> 80%) is algorithmic, which are behavioral in nature, striving to take advantage of market inefficiencies.

2 - I agree that fundamentals win in the long term, and the result will be catastrophic, particularly when liquidity injections that artificially inflate the market discontinue.

3 - The median estimate for technological singularity is 2040. It will not take that long for the majority of human labor capital to be replaced by technology. It will occur much sooner than you think, which will result in billions of not just unemployed people, but unemployable people. How do you propose that people can retire when there are no customers? At some point, governments or more likely, the government, will have to propose some sort of basic living income or deal with the "human problem" by other means.

Are you one of those people that feel as if you're a genius because you managed to invest in an artificially inflated market with historically low interest rates?

Any dummy could have made money in this market. That is not my concern. My concern is with what happens next. You are ultimately not protected based on what will likely occur in the future.

Youre using the same ole tired "the fed created the bull market" line thats been said now for years

And then you throw out these gems...

"the result will be catastrophic"

"artificially inflated market"

"billions of unemployable people"
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Old 08-18-2017, 08:07 AM
 
106,668 posts, read 108,810,853 times
Reputation: 80159
in the mean time many of us who have been invested since the predictions can lose 40% and still be a head of where we would be if we hid in cash waiting for the big fall .
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Old 08-18-2017, 08:27 AM
 
3,271 posts, read 2,189,152 times
Reputation: 2458
Quote:
Originally Posted by FREE866 View Post
Youre using the same ole tired "the fed created the bull market" line thats been said now for years

And then you throw out these gems...

"the result will be catastrophic"

"artificially inflated market"

"billions of unemployable people"
What evidence do you have towards the contrary? Based on your response, it appears you are completely unaware of potential catalysts, nor do you understand the existential threat that AI poses to society.

Complacency is a choice.
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Old 08-18-2017, 08:28 AM
 
3,271 posts, read 2,189,152 times
Reputation: 2458
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
in the mean time many of us who have been invested since the predictions can lose 40% and still be a head of where we would be if we hid in cash waiting for the big fall .
That's because you don't know where to "hide" your cash. However, I won't go into my own investment strategies because I don't feel like it has any impact on the points that I've made.

Besides, I don't base my intelligence on my ROI. I think that's pretentious and foolhardy, given all the factors that are outside of my control.

Come to whatever conclusion about me you'd like. Misplaced ad hominem attacks on me may make you feel better, but they have no impact on reality.
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Old 08-18-2017, 08:53 AM
 
106,668 posts, read 108,810,853 times
Reputation: 80159
i don't see any attack on you . i do see facts about staying the course stated though .
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Old 08-18-2017, 08:59 AM
 
3,271 posts, read 2,189,152 times
Reputation: 2458
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
i don't see any attack on you . i do see facts about staying the course stated though .
Like lambs to a slaughter, but for the record, the alternatives are much more volatile and probably just as likely to arrive at the same conclusion.

I am not so arrogant to presume that I can escape this fate.

I know that you got yours, so you probably don't care, but future generations are going to suffer due to decisions made in our lifetimes.

You also may not be able to escape that reality either, as I cannot predict the when the future will occur, just as I do not know what will occur tomorrow. That's what people don't seem to grasp. You have to look at things from many different angles. You can't approach it one way.

It's very unfortunate, but it's simply a product of human nature.
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Old 08-18-2017, 10:41 AM
 
Location: SoCal
20,160 posts, read 12,758,356 times
Reputation: 16993
All I can say is WTF.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:09 AM
 
Location: SoCal
20,160 posts, read 12,758,356 times
Reputation: 16993
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
I bought some today. I'm screwed now.
I sold all the ones I bought a few days ago. I had to sell today to keep my AA in tack. Buy on the dip did work out for me.
Time for doom and gloom again so I can buy. Haha
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Old 08-22-2017, 10:14 AM
 
26,191 posts, read 21,583,182 times
Reputation: 22772
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
I sold all the ones I bought a few days ago. I had to sell today to keep my AA in tack. Buy on the dip did work out for me.
Time for doom and gloom again so I can buy. Haha
You have to sell a week after your buys to keep your asset allocation in tact? Is that really the reason you sold?
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