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I dont want to brag or get cocky from one pick that did well. I'll say be careful about chasing the stock here. Long term it might be cheap but short term its a coin flip as to whether the gap is filled as they say. Current prices to sales ratio is around 5, though based on what I expect their revenue growth to be, closer to 3. I have no reason to believe their growth will slow... If anything word of mouth will make agent growth accellerate with revenue growth exceeding my expectations on what I've read. Still I dont like to recommend chasing stocks. Do your own DD.
The danger with using a stock screener to find fast growers that are small is that the growth often stalls and when that happens the stock is punished severely. Under armor (UA) was a past recent example. I see no sign that will happen here however.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jlvs2run
Stockwiz, over $200,000 by the 18th day, an astounding rate of 20x for the year! Woohoo! In 2017 you had ZG, up 11.5 percent for the year, not bad, and overall your strategy works out great. I'm curious if you do such all in single stock investments or similar in your regular portfolio? What strategy do you use, if you don't mind sharing.
I do what a previous poster suggested. Use a stock screener to find growth companies and try to ascertain whether or not they will keep growing and whether they could end up big down the road, along with looking at their balance sheets. Sometimes I'll look at the companies video conferences and try to get a feel for the management. Honestly this is my first stock that has doubled so fast though, and this one I didn't get from a screener, I got it from yahoos Zillow message board. Another thing I like to do is invest in XIV. Its the one ETF that seems to make huge predictable gains over time. Wait for a huge selloff that causes it to tank and invest. If the market stays nice and stable with a low VIX you'll be nicely rewarded. Its one of the few leveraged etfs that never seems to decay because in the long haul the market is usually stable and the VIX only spikes during big selloffs. Rotating into unpopular sectors works well.. Sectors like solar and the like usually go through cycles.
Some of the stuff I've invested in...BOFI at 18... BANC at 12... FSLR at around 35.. AL at 40. I did have a loser.. I bought FIT around 15 or so. Haha. I also like natural gas and oil trusts to park safe money... SJT and PBT. Honestly though just staying invested is the best thing anyone could have done the last 10 years. Its unfortunate so many of the middle class dont put in the effort to invest. That old sayjng it takes money to make money is partially true. Rather than wage inflation weve been seeing asset inflation the last 20 years (actually more like the last 35 years) which is why the rich get richer. My largest holding is where I work.. Putting 10% of my paycheck into company stock since 2011 and haven't sold any (MMM)..
Personally I do think we are in a rather sizable bubble even with the tax cut. I see nobody talking selloff anymore and people instead saying we are going to see a melt up. That's a warning sign to watch for... Still corporate profits of many companies are going to see a big boost raising earnings per share and lowering valuations. However, the next democrat president (I do assume it will be a democrat) will likely undo these changes. I question actually how healthy it is to generate more government debt at this stage of an economic cycle when you should be generating surplusses... Just being honest here. Seems to be fiscally irresponsible. I guess well see what happens.
I used a bunch of screeners to check out expi and found very little info. What I did find showed the following numbers. This is from my etrade screener:
Return on Assets -107.13%
Return on Equity -279.68%
Return on Inves. Capital -279.95%
Price/Sales 6.23x
Price/Book 174.50x
Gross Margin 11.13%
Operating Margin -7.29
EBITDA Margin -7.11
Net Profit Margin -7.34%
This $16.04 stock flatlined below $4 per share from late 2013 until last Oct it has since shot up to $16. The last insider activity was a sale in late april of 2017.
What research did you do? How long have you had this in your crosshairs? Are you at all bothered by the fundamentals of this psycho stock?
I used a bunch of screeners to check out expi and found very little info. What I did find showed the following numbers. This is from my etrade screener:
Return on Assets -107.13%
Return on Equity -279.68%
Return on Inves. Capital -279.95%
Price/Sales 6.23x
Price/Book 174.50x
Gross Margin 11.13%
Op.Margin -7.29
EBITDA Margin -7.11
Net Profit Margin -7.34%
This $16.04 stock mainly flatlined below $4 per share from late 2013 until last Oct it has since shot up to $16. The last insider activity was a sale in late april of 2017.
What research did you do? How long have you had this in your crosshairs? Are you at all bothered by the fundamentals of this psycho stock?
Indeed. While Stockwiz's success isn't to be gainsaid (but perhaps envied... just a little bit...), the question is begged: how, based on the available data on this company, do we ascertain that's a solid and promising business?
Indeed. While Stockwiz's success isn't to be gainsaid (but perhaps envied... just a little bit...), the question is begged: how, based on the available data on this company, do we ascertain that's a solid and promising business?
Indeed there's no guarantee that they'll be able to turn revenue growth into profits. It's part of the risk in investing in small and growing companies.. you're taking the risk that the growth in agents and increasing revenue is going to translate into growing profits and that the management will do a good job.
I started following it last spring when I saw the revenue and agent growth. I researched to make sure these agents were legit and everything was on the up and up. I visited their EXP World. Like I mentioned I did not find this one on a stock screener. Actually I've found many of the companies found on stock screeners can be rather hit or miss and that they go through a growth spurt and then flatline and the stock screener tends to catch them a little late. I try to focus on new ideas and what I think might be a good idea. Cloud based ideas are among that.. a realtor that doesn't maintain local branches seemed to be to be a natural evolution of real estate with more people looking online on sites like Zillow.
I try not to focus on balance sheet as time and time again I see the best performing companies focus on revenue growth first and profits later. Amazon is a great example of this as are many tech stocks. I look at revenue growth and how likely is that revenue growth to continue? How much cash are they burning through is important but if their company has a large market cap and they have a relatively modest loss, the cost cutting can come in later.
I don't want people to think of me as some stock guru because I'm not. I hit some and miss some like anyone. The fact I entered EXPI in the contest and it want parabolic a few days later is more a matter of dumb luck. It was flatlined at 3 bucks all year because nobody heard of them. They obviously gained some attention from somewhere lately. I can't imagine this forum post would cause the stock rise.. someone probably told their stock broker who told someone else and it gained the interest of some brokerage house or bank thus the recent rise on volume that came with the higher price... I could argue based on revenue growth and a price to sales ratio of 4 that it's fairly valued around this level based on speculation people give to growth companies and it was undervalued in December which is why I made it my pick for 2018.
could argue based on revenue growth and a price to sales ratio of 4 that it's fairly valued around this level based on speculation people give to growth companies and it was undervalued in December which is why I made it my pick for 2018.
If the game allowed trading, at what price would you sell/have sold this stock?
If the game allowed trading, at what price would you sell/have sold this stock?
If I was a day trader I'd probably have sold already since day traders and swing traders tend to go for small gains and don't go around holding for multiple days. I still don't think the stock is particularly overvalued even at 16. Normally a stock would sell off to fill the gap but the thing is that nobody really owned this stock back when it was 3 bucks so there's not many people who can actually sell to fill in that gap except employees and I suspect they aren't going to sell because they know the potential here. If this was just a revenueless stock getting pumped because it's in a hot sector I might say that it will sell off hard but it has the revenue growth to support it's price. The past 2 times it went up it never really went down, it just flatlined there for awhile... I'd say it could drop back to $12 short term to fill the gap.. why not? I don't usually try to "time" short term moves in stocks. However that kind of drop seems increasingly unlikely barring horrible next quarter results which don't come out until late February.
I'm a long term investor and I don't plan on selling because I believe the revenue and agent growth will continue to accelerate. I only need to look at my picks typically once every 3 months or so.. earnings season. I don't typically concern myself with week to week movements of the stock. I'm hoping in about 8-12 quarters or so they have revenues north of 200 million per quarter and the stock is trading around $50-65/share which would give it the same prices to sales ratio it has now, around 4 assuming they don't issue more shares. They went from revenues of 15.8 to million to 48.1 million in one year and continue to attract new agents aggressively, many who seem to be jumping ship from other realtors. On December 5 they passed 6000 agents.. on December 31 they had 6500 agents... keep in mind in the real estate game the top 20% of agents bring in 80% of the sales, just like in the dating game and many other areas of life and nature... the 80/20 rule is almost a law of nature.
Anyways I feel like I'm monopolizing this thread and that's not my intention here so I'm going to back off for a bit. I will say finding companies this small growing this fast that are already publicly traded is not that common so I'm going to enjoy it. Sure stuff gets pumped but usually the company has no revenue growth or no prospects of it. This thing could be huge. I'm grateful to the guy who posted it on the yahoo Zillow boards last year. The guys name was "Greg"
Ask jlvs2run some questions he's doing pretty well and also put 40% into EXPI.
If I was a day trader I'd probably have sold already since day traders and swing traders tend to go for small gains and don't go around holding for multiple days. I still don't think the stock is particularly overvalued even at 16. Normally a stock would sell off to fill the gap but the thing is that nobody really owned this stock back when it was 3 bucks so there's not many people who can actually sell to fill in that gap except employees and I suspect they aren't going to sell because they know the potential here. If this was just a revenueless stock getting pumped because it's in a hot sector I might say that it will sell off hard but it has the revenue growth to support it's price. The past 2 times it went up it never really went down, it just flatlined there for awhile... I'd say it could drop back to $12 short term to fill the gap.. why not? I don't usually try to "time" short term moves in stocks. However that kind of drop seems increasingly unlikely barring horrible next quarter results which don't come out until late February.
I'm a long term investor and I don't plan on selling because I believe the revenue and agent growth will continue to accelerate. I only need to look at my picks typically once every 3 months or so.. earnings season. I don't typically concern myself with week to week movements of the stock. I'm hoping in about 8-12 quarters or so they have revenues north of 200 million per quarter and the stock is trading around $50-65/share which would give it the same prices to sales ratio it has now, around 4 assuming they don't issue more shares. They went from revenues of 15.8 to million to 48.1 million in one year and continue to attract new agents aggressively, many who seem to be jumping ship from other realtors. On December 5 they passed 6000 agents.. on December 31 they had 6500 agents... keep in mind in the real estate game the top 20% of agents bring in 80% of the sales, just like in the dating game and many other areas of life and nature... the 80/20 rule is almost a law of nature.
Anyways I feel like I'm monopolizing this thread and that's not my intention here so I'm going to back off for a bit. I will say finding companies this small growing this fast that are already publicly traded is not that common so I'm going to enjoy it. Sure stuff gets pumped but usually the company has no revenue growth or no prospects of it. This thing could be huge. I'm grateful to the guy who posted it on the yahoo Zillow boards last year. The guys name was "Greg"
Ask jlvs2run some questions he's doing pretty well and also put 40% into EXPI.
Don't feel that way at all...some of us "small" stock dabblers enjoy your insight and methods.
Don't feel that way at all...some of us "small" stock dabblers enjoy your insight and methods.
Truly, the market roils different methodologies all the time. The more you learn the more market types you feel confident trading in. The only part I with the board had more of is the why and what is being seen. It may be right, it may be wrong, it may be the wrong market. Beyond EXPI, certainly MMAC has started off the year with another bang that is enviable for any trader...and its what was picked the year before as well. The board is certainly off to a pretty nice start for the year.
Currently revenue growth is king. It's a race to see which model will entirely disrupt and industry and people are willing to bear tremendous losses for revenue growth and a good story/product to match. At some point that will fall out of favor and money will want to resume normal returns...but in the meantime:
Say say two thousand zero zero party over, oops, out of time
So tonight I'm gonna party like it's nineteen ninety-nine
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