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Jobster, about a year ago you swore 2017 would be a disaster unlike anything seen before in financial markets. It was a type of run, run for the hills, the sky is falling yell. That didn't happen (obviously).
Even Mr. BMW was strongly advising people the day after the election to bail out completely and short the market and put money into gold/GLD.
Good thing that people ignore B&W all or nothing type prognostications.
Everyone *knows* there will be a crash some day. That's not a mystery. Why? Because that's just how the markets have always been. Cycles. No one knows when. Not you, not anyone. You don't have to be in the market or at least not to the extent you are. No one is holding a gun to your head. You don't like the game but you're playing the game even though you hate the game, hate everything about it, even hate that it's working for you. Seriously, there's no reason to be so miserable--cash out, go plant your toes in the sand, or do something that you can at least get some pleasure from while you're still inhabiting this earth.
And for those who are convinced they are experts who know exactly what will happen and when it will happen and how it will shake out...that's called guessing and anyone can guess and most people are wrong.
The best advice I've gotten is to check equity allocation once or twice a year to make sure % of equities is aligned to age, timeline, and ability to handle risk. Allocation is correct when you can sleep at night and not panic when uncertain and/or markets tumble.
Well, what I meant by this is that the mechanics are the same in the broader market. The broader market is increasingly susceptible to high volatility, low volume shake outs.
It's because of liquidity injections from central banks via quants funds like Citadel who can essentially control the markets as long as they have enough capital. You see it on smaller scales all the time in crypto.
You're correct that I don't know when the market is going to crash, but I find it to be incredibly disconcerting that the market is not even close to being efficient. An efficient market would not allow outside entities, with essentially, unlimited capital, to move the market up and down. It causes "irrational exuberance."
If the market was completely based on fundamentals would you feel comfortable entering at this point? I think most traders discovered several years ago that fundamentals really didn't matter anymore because the market is not going to stop going up until some black swan event.
It's just saw the walk up in real time and then I noticed different correlations emerging than previously that led me to this conclusion. I could be wrong, but unfortunately because of what I saw, it left a lasting impression on me and I am now concerned that the market might be a bull trap, but also because of what I consider to be outrageous evaluations in consideration of utility.
I just don't like the idea that my retirement is predicated on a scam.
i don't see any such extended plunge in the cards for stocks . profits are very good and interest rates pretty low .
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
sorry but i don't see an oil related crisis at this point in time on the radar . going out farther my crystal ball is broke .
That's twice - in this thread alone - that you've used this "i don't see" line. I've seen you use this in others.
You write this like some big fat "Pontificator" sitting in his leather chair in a dark, smoke-filled room ...
You've clearly written before that you don't time or predict the market ( you pay someone else to do so ) yet you write stuff like this over and over. Do you have any statements like this from 2008? If not, I bet you don't have any saying the opposite. Why now? These quote are both market timing and predictions.
Indeed, a currency is no more and no less than an agreed-upon medium of exchange. Where I fail to see your point, is first, in the appeal of something that's "based on math", and second, in the aversion to something that "manipulated by government".
I believe the appeal is that math is prove-able, universal and can't change.
Not so government monetary policy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant
Even more opaque to me is the idea of government-backing of currencies, being somehow a bad idea. Why is this so?
Governments historically speaking, have a consistent track record of screwing-up money, budgets and commerce.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant
To somehow divorce commerce from backing by governments, seems to me to be fundamentally a dumb idea, and a risky one.
I imagine it was not so long ago that people would say the same thing for separating Religion from Government, separating Education from Government.
Historically speaking, "money" has not been the exclusive purview of a particular central government until fairly recent times.
Bitcoin has the ability to for the first time to have a global money system that is outside the remit and control of any one government.
It is governments that have turned the screws on our monetary system to use it has a method of control, rather than to simply allow it to be used for commerce.
It is that coercive tendency of governments that will draw people toward alternatives.
I'd like to see a Poll regarding if people support the idea of eliminating Cash.
It would be revealing i think towards people's desire for privacy.
Just looking at this post for first time. I've been looking at crypto charts and they've been insane the last month or so.
I'm just starting more recently getting the hang out exchanges, etc.
10x 1000% in crypto in less than a month doesn't even seem a big deal anymore which is nuts.
Makes you wonder how long it's sustainable. Being cautiously optimistic I guess.
I heard an interview with one big crypto guy worth millions. He said he'd be fine if crypto dropped 90%...but of course he put some for pennies that are now worth dollars.
He was pretty early on ETH and some others.
Many people will only want to jump in at all time highs. Whether it's stocks or real estate. When the media and 'experts' tell them it's a 'good time'.
10x 1000% in crypto in less than a month doesn't even seem a big deal anymore which is nuts.
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Yep long term is considered 3 months or so. HODLING is when you dont have any intention of selling until you can afford a lambo. I was reading somewhere that crypto trading has cured p*rn and gaming addiction for some ppl...
And you are right when CNBC or Tai Lopez start mentioning Ripple, its time to position yourself for the sell off.
Yep long term is considered 3 months or so. HODLING is when you dont have any intention of selling until you can afford a lambo. I was reading somewhere that crypto trading has cured p*rn and gaming addiction for some ppl...
And you are right when CNBC or Tai Lopez start mentioning Ripple, its time to position yourself for the sell off.
Ha yeah it's crazy that's considered long term now .
Are people really cashing out to buy lambos in cash ? Leasing or even buying with a loan seems smarter.
I know Tai Lopez has a cryptocurrency podcast now .
Ha yeah it's crazy that's considered long term now .
Are people really cashing out to buy lambos in cash ? Leasing or even buying with a loan seems smarter.
I know Tai Lopez has a cryptocurrency podcast now .
CNBC I'm pretty sure has mentioned Ripple.
Well, I am part of few private investment groups and every once in a while we see a group user posting their group id with a pic of Lambo or Ferrari and a message saying thanks to the group admins.. I am sure they started with high initial investment but yes Lambo is the benchmark
Tai Lopez is useless. He does have knowledgeable guests in his show but it is all about him channeling his products disguised under the crypto banner which he doesnt know anything about. Anytime you see someone asking you to pay them and in return they give you some product / book etc which will make you rich and successful, thats more likely a scam. You are better off paying for a TA course to understand concepts such as doji candles, elliot waves, RSI, MacD or ichimoku stuff, that is worth paying for...
Well, I am part of few private investment groups and every once in a while we see a group user posting their group id with a pic of Lambo or Ferrari and a message saying thanks to the group admins.. I am sure they started with high initial investment but yes Lambo is the benchmark
Tai Lopez is useless. He does have knowledgeable guests in his show but it is all about him channeling his products disguised under the crypto banner which he doesnt know anything about. Anytime you see someone asking you to pay them and in return they give you some product / book etc which will make you rich and successful, thats more likely a scam. You are better off paying for a TA course to understand concepts such as doji candles, elliot waves, RSI, MacD or ichimoku stuff, that is worth paying for...
Yeah that's cool if someone is able to buy a car like that with their earnings.
It's funny because I know a lot of people say exotic cars like that are a depreciating asset ..but I was looking at the prices of some older Lamborghini and some of them are more than the new ones. Like those old Countachs. Of course there is the maintenance and insurance to pay for all those years, but it's kind of funny most people probably just think they are 'old'.
Some examples here: 14 Lamborghini Countach For Sale - duPont REGISTRY
Yeah I've listened to some of the Tai Lopez crypto podcast which is free. Supposedly he's paying crypto 'experts' to coach him. But then he's pitching his course of course...which I'm guessing is taught by the experts.
Definately seems like he jumps on whatever is 'hot' at the moment. I know a little while ago he was talking about investing in real estate and had some course.
No doubt he has great marketing skills and is probably the most successful 'lifestyle entrepreneur' out there. Gotta admire that at least I guess.
I doubt there is much worth paying for right now as there is a ton of free info online. Perhaps a course in TA but not sure if that's necessary in the current crypto market.
Yeah that's cool if someone is able to buy a car like that with their earnings.
It's funny because I know a lot of people say exotic cars like that are a depreciating asset ..but I was looking at the prices of some older Lamborghini and some of them are more than the new ones. Like those old Countachs. Of course there is the maintenance and insurance to pay for all those years, but it's kind of funny most people probably just think they are 'old'.
Some examples here: 14 Lamborghini Countach For Sale - duPont REGISTRY
Yeah I've listened to some of the Tai Lopez crypto podcast which is free. Supposedly he's paying crypto 'experts' to coach him. But then he's pitching his course of course...which I'm guessing is taught by the experts.
Definately seems like he jumps on whatever is 'hot' at the moment. I know a little while ago he was talking about investing in real estate and had some course.
No doubt he has great marketing skills and is probably the most successful 'lifestyle entrepreneur' out there. Gotta admire that at least I guess.
I doubt there is much worth paying for right now as there is a ton of free info online. Perhaps a course in TA but not sure if that's necessary in the current crypto market.
Well those are collectible cars and not every day drivers. One can get those early 2000 gallardos for less than 150k used so not all of them are expensive.
There are some pump and dump groups which operate 24/7 and ppl are making lot of $$ following their signals. Right now signal gp memberships run from $50- $10000 a month. Offcourse some are better than others but i personally dont have time to follow all those signals 24/7
Tai lopez has millions of followers on youtube. He probably makes lots of $$ from his youtube viewership aswell. An interesting fact about his promo intro video where he walks inside his garage full of super cars is that that house is a rental and those super cars are not his but promotional use only.. these youtube influencers make lot of money through their channels. Once u have million plus viewers on youtube channel you get approached by all these brands who pay u to market their stuff or just regular ad revenue.
There are lot of scams in the market asking you to pay $200 for crypto training course. One should not fall for that B.S. Its not as if they will train the turtle. All the stuff is readily available and its for free.
Nobody will use a Fed coin, the fed wants to take some elements of crypto and blockchain, however they want to remove all the freedom from it. They probably want to control the quantity available, want to be able to track it, want the ability to blacklist certain people's fed coins. Nobody is going to use a Fed coin
Fedcoin would be a total tragedy. The Fed has already invested 7 billion into creating their own fork already last summer which would give them total control of all transactions. Is that what Ripple is? Hopefully few people would use it, but many probably would, and the government would for sure make it mandatory.
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