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Old 02-05-2018, 05:34 PM
 
Location: Capital Region, NY
2,478 posts, read 1,545,581 times
Reputation: 3555

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Chiming in, folks. First of all, ouch. That being said I think most of us were scratching our collective heads and wondering when the craziness would snap back into reality. I will make no attempt to time the market. I consider this an opportunity to buy at a discount. I find myself, suddenly, more satisfied than I had been in recent months that I am not all in to equities. Still like my plain, vanilla target fund and plan to stick with it.

Kudos to those who are smart enough/ educated enough/ have nerve enough to manipulate around these events.

Best of luck to all.
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Old 02-05-2018, 05:35 PM
 
6,627 posts, read 4,289,861 times
Reputation: 7076
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22 View Post
Wow - well, that's fine if you think you don't need to learn anything new. As for myself, I do consider the words of multi-millionaire traders. I've made some very profitable decisions because of them. Their words aren't gospel, but they're not nothing either. When I hear several guys who've been in the position a very long time say they're heavy in cash, clearly, there is a reason. They knew this was coming - as did we all - but they prepared for it.
I do not believe very many can accurately predict what the markets are going to do over the short-term, and if you think you can, better luck to you. I know I said earlier I don't listen; actually sometimes I do listen (but never act) because I need a good laugh..

Last edited by Lizap; 02-05-2018 at 05:56 PM..
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Old 02-05-2018, 05:36 PM
 
5,725 posts, read 2,190,327 times
Reputation: 3871
Quote:
Originally Posted by stockwiz View Post
Record high margin debt combined with computerized sell programs that trigger when stocks hit certain prices combined with a massive and arguably unwarranted runup in stock prices during the last couple of months. Heck the nasdaq is still only at December levels and the DOW at November levels. The trick is knowing when these selloffs will exactly occur and when they will stop. I'm getting better at predicting when they will occur but still not perfect.

The bullishness index I use dropped down to 63 percent today, so using my own rules I could get back in any time or I can gamble to see if it goes lower. My rule is to sell when it hits 90% and get back in at anything under 65%. Beware the following link has a few obnoxious ads:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$BPindu,uu[w,a]dacanyay[df][p][vc60][i]&pref=G
Please keep us updated as it goes down. My portfolio is 15% cash and trying to find when to jump in without catching the falling knife. I think I'll just jump in when the p/e ration and dividend yield hits my targets
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Old 02-05-2018, 05:41 PM
 
3,271 posts, read 2,187,634 times
Reputation: 2458
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhyRUMad View Post
The VIX is up 115% after hours. Going from 17 to 37. For those that don’t know, the vix is a volatility index that shows the expected volatility over the next 30 days. This is the largest one day change in the vix since it’s inception.


Cowards. They do it after-hours of course.
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Old 02-05-2018, 05:51 PM
 
Location: Sector 001
15,945 posts, read 12,276,554 times
Reputation: 16109
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jobster View Post


Cowards. They do it after-hours of course.
The VIX was up to that level during the day. It hit the high of the day the last 30 minutes of trading, around 2:45 CST or so. It was not an after hours jump.

CBOE Volatility Index, VIX Quick Chart - (MDE) VIX, CBOE Volatility Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
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Old 02-05-2018, 05:59 PM
 
3,271 posts, read 2,187,634 times
Reputation: 2458
Quote:
Originally Posted by stockwiz View Post
The VIX was up to that level during the day. It hit the high of the day the last 30 minutes of trading, around 2:45 CST or so. It was not an after hours jump.

CBOE Volatility Index, VIX Quick Chart - (MDE) VIX, CBOE Volatility Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
I expect high volatility tomorrow.
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:01 PM
 
Location: New York, NY
3,672 posts, read 2,748,808 times
Reputation: 4639
Quote:
Originally Posted by stockwiz View Post
The VIX was up to that level during the day. It hit the high of the day the last 30 minutes of trading, around 2:45 CST or so. It was not an after hours jump.

CBOE Volatility Index, VIX Quick Chart - (MDE) VIX, CBOE Volatility Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
This is correct. I read a headline from CNBC that was quickly updated. The swing happened during trading hours. Still noteworthy.
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:02 PM
 
Location: Wisconsin
25,578 posts, read 56,455,902 times
Reputation: 23370
Quote:
Originally Posted by ColoradoOnMyMind View Post
My portfolio is 15% cash and trying to find when to jump in without catching the falling knife. I think I'll just jump in when the p/e ration and dividend yield hits my targets
Dan Niles, Alpha Capital Investors, today said his firm had been 30% in cash because they were expecting today. Today they deployed about 5% of that cash - covered an Apple short and in addition 'nibbled' at Intel, JPMorgan.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/02/0...no-reason.html

Still holding 25% cash and watching.
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:03 PM
 
Location: Raleigh
8,168 posts, read 8,519,039 times
Reputation: 10147
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhyRUMad View Post
<>
Did you Hedge for this? About a month ago I sold 50% of my stock portfolio and placed about half of that in an inverse ETF, the rest is earning some interest while waiting on the sideline to buy back in. I didn’t touch my other investments.
<>
You must be happy today?
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Old 02-05-2018, 06:08 PM
 
3,271 posts, read 2,187,634 times
Reputation: 2458
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhyRUMad View Post
This is correct. I read a headline from CNBC that was quickly updated. The swing happened during trading hours. Still noteworthy.
Some after-hours trading did occur in a volatility related asset and a huge blow up will occur tomorrow.
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