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But that is part of the programming for vehicles that operate w/o drivers--isn't it???
They have to have some format for what is coming up
They can't adjust on the fly as every second unfolds
Yet when we match today's market situation with all similar past situations and think that tells us something about where the market may go, we're doing the exact same thing.
In driving having a blindfold prevents the driver from adjusting to scenery feedback. In the stock market we are effectively blindfolded because we cannot see the future.
I'm telling you that superimposing charts tells us nothing, or nothing that can't be discovered better by charting. At least charting has a methodology that can be tested and rated.
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Originally Posted by loves2read
I see your point and agree with you pretty much all the way
But I think algorhythim trading does do what you analyze...
It anticipates a much stronger correlation to future events based on the past events it has had programmed into its formula
Maybe why there has been such difficulty in getting a sustained rally...
Algorithmic trading is like the old saying, "Be careful what you wish for. You might get it." You are handing a stupid robot a bunch of money and a limited list of what to do with it. "If this then that" stuff. And then you close your eyes and go to sleep.
You should look into programming algorithms yourself, going into detail is IMO too far off topic.
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Originally Posted by PamelaIamela
So.. has everyone 'bought the dip' yet?
I have some sour cream and package onion soup mix. So I bought the dip and I have some nice raw veggies too!
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Originally Posted by PamelaIamela
A financial adviser once told me that when the 200 day MA crosses the RE Rent/Own Ratio twice within a month, thus making the dreaded 'death butterfly'..it is already too late!
I enjoyed the facetious story!
I guess that's sort of like when you realize that at your speed your braking distance is longer than your distance from an abutment, and that you don't have time to swerve. Or maybe it's the last thing that crosses a bug's mind as it smacks its insectile guts against a semi's windshield: "Big! Shiny!"
I don't know what the correct sign is but at this point I'm 90% certain that the point of no return has already passed.
We haven't sold--
Still have the money we put into our grandson's 529 college fund waiting in Money Market which makes me happy because our advisor wanted to disperse when it came in...
That was middle of October
Lot has happened since then
Maybe after Christmas--since we have only one other time we can take action we might put some in bond fund and maybe some in equities--and hold rest for next year...
This could last until Trump is out of office...
Navarro said no deal with China because (not in his words but am sure in his thinking) China won't give the US everything it wants re intellectual property...
So another reason to sell, sell, sell...
Anyone know the volume today-
Any difference in AM/PM selling?
Saw that and couple of others with same idea
But don't think that is enough to counteract government shutdown anxiety when Trump promises it "could last a long time"
Or when all the other factors are skewed so negatively
I think the markets are going to be for crap for a good long time. Any relief rally will be short-lived and extremely inadequate. DC uncertainty remains for the next two years, which means problems.
Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read
We haven't sold--
Still have the money we put into our grandson's 529 college fund waiting in Money Market which makes me happy because our advisor wanted to disperse when it came in...
That was middle of October
Lot has happened since then
Maybe after Christmas--since we have only one other time we can take action we might put some in bond fund and maybe some in equities--and hold rest for next year...
This could last until Trump is out of office...
Navarro said no deal with China because (not in his words but am sure in his thinking) China won't give the US everything it wants re intellectual property...
China will never give us what we want. IP theft is ingrained in their DNA. Carter Worth said today January will most likely be even worse than December - 'murder' he called it. Art Cashin said we're in a mess probably for the first six months of 2019. DC continues to keep everyone off balance. I have no confidence in this market until we have a new government - as no one is on the same page.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 12-21-2018 at 05:04 PM..
I think the markets are going to be for crap for a good long time. Any relief rally will be short-lived and extremely inadequate. DC uncertainty remains for the next two years, which means problems.
I feel exactly the same although it is only my opinion of course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22
China will never give us what we want. IP theft is ingrained in their DNA. Carter Worth said today January will most likely be even worse than December - 'murder' he called it. Art Cashin said we're in a mess probably for the first six months of 2019. DC continues to keep everyone off balance. With that uncertainty, your best bet is to buy CD's or something like that with grandbaby's money, although there a few specific equities that might hold up as the downdraft continues. I have no confidence in this market until we have a new government - as no one is on the same page.
I wasn't aware of the Worth prediction or Cashin's opinion, but they too fit my model.
The only give is that Trump is just as stubborn as Xi/China. IMO there is no telling who will blink first.
I also believe America has been getting a raw deal from China, and I'm willing to accept as much pain as it takes to get a fair deal.
We're not winning that war. There will be lip service and tokenism and lies, but nothing substantial or long lasting. Expect smokescreen rhetoric from both sides disguising the reality of any "agreement." So, for "as long as it takes" - figure a long, long, long, long, long time - essentially never. China is on a mission of dominance. Our withdrawal from the TPP has only helped them.
A big part of the problem is that the government is borrowing too much money. It's 1.3 trillion dollars in net issuance of debt if you only look at the deficit for FY19 and 1.7 trillion dollars net issuance with the Fed not replenishing maturing debt. The stock market experienced a similar plunge in 2008 when the government went to the treasury markets for the TARP funding in November. Also, similar sharp drops occurred in 2010 and 2011 when the Fed balance sheet was shrinking while the government still ran 1 trillion dollar deficits to finance anti-recession spending.
China and India aren't party to the TPP which had clauses for IP protection. The pact would've imposed much higher drug costs in those countries. Japan Inc. would've benefited since it allowed for more parts to be manufactured in other Asian countries.
In the end, tech has benefited from the big capex spending by China on technology. That will likely slow dramatically to reduce tensions. That is probably starting to be reflected in tech stocks.
We're not winning that war. There will be lip service and tokenism and lies, but nothing substantial or long lasting. Expect smokescreen rhetoric from both sides disguising the reality of any "agreement." So, for "as long as it takes" - figure a long, long, long, long, long time - essentially never. China is on a mission of dominance. Our withdrawal from the TPP has only helped them.
News story about Chinese resident alien working for Phillips at Bartlesville OK research site
Caught stealing plans/info for likely electric car battery design on something similar
All kinds of compromising info on his computers and thumb drive he had
Also found emails from Chinese company offering him job/good salary if what he offered to provide proved out
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