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We don't trade but are very suspicious of all the positive up talking
We pulled out of the market just before election and stayed out for while--not trusting the Trump bounce=
Are back in and balanced more bonds than equities
Zack's email today was lot of positives pointing to strong economy
I just want to know if I am looking at an opportunity coming up with a significant drop
Like 5-10% or more but perhaps Elliot Wave can't level of drop...
Am getting ready to put money into our grandson's college account so would optimally prefer to wait if there is break coming...
Have cash on sidelines and max CD coming due soon that can be pulled early w/o penalty if there is buying opportunity
I'm new to trading. I want to learn technical analysis so that I can do it on my own. Can anyone help me to suggest good resources?
Thank you
Speaking for the folks who think Technical analysis is just nonsense, I will urge you to learn Fundamental Analysis instead.
Fundamental analysis led me to buy BEAT at 20 three years ago (it has tripled), and NVTA at 5.85 only months ago (up 126%). I don't believe charts can predict very much, and in my experience - I used to be a 'chartist' - keeping careful records and understanding a company's business model will take you farther that trading stocks often the way technicians do.
But I have to warn you: Results will not be instantaneous!
Learning fundamental analysis takes a little time, but if you are persistent you will succeed. I only hold 2 stocks, and plan to hold them for years. I trade options as a method of taking advantage of short term variations.
I've used technical analysis for over 40 years, quite profitably. However, I never rely on it alone, as fundamentals do matter, the economy matters, and sentiment of various kinds also matter. Over time, if you focus on one or two things, and stay aware of the others, you develop a sense of what works for you, and what doesn't. It becomes a matter of intuition, that you have a strong sense of what is likely to happen when you see certain things occur - whether it's a chart pattern, indicator, economic report, or political scandal.
Nothing is truly predictive. However, combining approaches greatly improves your probability of making successful decisions, once you have enough experience with them.
I'm new to trading. I want to learn technical analysis so that I can do it on my own. Can anyone help me to suggest good resources?
Thank you
Best resources you can use are your own self discipline. Create a trade and/or investment plan. Stick to it. Use risk management to cover your exposure, and have your entry/exit points pre-planned.
Current dimensions are 7825 to 8000 and gradually rising. Elliott Wave chart pattern says it's bearish. Traditional chart pattern analysis says the break in either direction will be rapid (neutral).
The SPX is at the upper line of a up-sloping channel.
Some people try to impose a wedge on every channel to support their case for an extreme move, whether it's bullish or bearish. The trendlines for the SPX are essentially parallel as opposed to converging as in a wedge or a triangle pattern. The lower trendline is about to rise above 2800. A decline within the bounds of the channel is contained to about 3 percent.
There is often slippage in patterns and the lines can be re-drawn to maintain the general shape so that the analysis is still intact.
This is a very difficult market to bet against since 5-10 stocks are all that are needed to support market cap-weighted averages and because of the stimulus though being gradually reduced is still sufficient to absorb the supply.
Price analysis, or technical analysis, is usually divided into two camps. The first uses the tools to identify trends and determine where the current price likely fits within the trend. This is called trend-following. The second uses the tools to identify local extremes and looks for the price to mean revert.
The recent continuation of this thread is serendipitous, for we have apt occasion to revisit predictions made 5 months ago, in a then seemingly-perilous time, now in a time of apparent felicity and reward for the longsuffering. It may not always be so; reversal and loss can perhaps be soon forthcoming, and in any case, they can't be staved off indefinitely. But regardless, I ask: what did the charts from March tell us about the ensuing several months? How accurate were these charts? Did they offer any guidance for investors in real-time, or are they merely curiosities, which look good as general explanations and followers of trades, but nothing more?
You have to update the analysis regularly since the price changes affect the indicators and patterns. You also have to recognize that the analysis at that time doesn't give you absolute price predictions, only possibilities such as a retest of the January highs or a correction of 50, 63, or 75 percent of the decline.
The weakest index today is the only index that hasn't breached its channel since the March low. The Nasdaq and SPX are still slightly above the top line so the patterns haven't been completely negated. The initial break of the pattern would be called a false break or a throwover.
By the way, the SPX is repeatedly testing the top trend line of its channel at 2893, and should rally from here unless the Nasdaq joins in on the decline. There is no triangle or wedge pattern on the FAANG stocks ( I keep a composite index). They had a breakout above a triple top pattern, but remain overextended on all time frames from intraday to monthly per the BB's.
All four major indices have retreated back within their respective channels that was pointed out last week. The distance to the bottom of the channel is only about 3%. SPX and Nasdaq had breakouts on low volume that failed. The Dow and the Nasdaq-100 never broke out but reached the top of their channels.
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