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Old 07-27-2018, 07:01 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post

the difference is you give up some potential bull gains for making a lot more gains when things turn downward with equities .
IF, and it's a big IF, you are able to time that right!
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Old 07-27-2018, 07:02 AM
 
1,987 posts, read 1,193,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
we will likely just get in to a currency weakening war if push comes to shove . lowering your countries currency offsets the tariff increases . china is already doing it and trump wants to do it .he said that the other day when he lashed out at the fed for raising rates. my gold holdings would love that move .
In summary , it's mostly noise and shouldn't dictate ones asset allocation or investment strategy, unless you're a trader of course
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Old 07-27-2018, 07:05 AM
 
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nope , no need to time a thing . the assets will be in place and ready to rock . eventually what you give up on the upside you make on the downside .

historically since 1970 the butterfly which is 40% equities has beaten 60/40 in return , had much lower swings and less losing years .

the cycle is ALWAYS two parts eventually , the bull and at some point the recession . our returns 80% of the time are somewhere between the last high and last low .

it only makes sense that there are asset combo's that instead of having higher peaks and deeper valleys go far straighter to the same point hich is in between .

i kind of like that model for some of my dough when i am not comfortable with things . it still can do as well as my typical portfolio which is 50/50 but it holds up far better if we slide . at 66 and dependent on our portfolio for survival i am not interested in riding anything in to valleys if i can work around it without giving up much upside . the nice thing is there is little penalty for guessing wrong with these models since over the long term they have done as well or better than typical 50/50 or 60/40 mixes when used all the time . .
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Old 07-27-2018, 07:13 AM
 
1,987 posts, read 1,193,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
nope , no need to time a thing . the assets will be in place and ready to rock . eventually what you give up on the upside you make on the downside .

historically since 1970 the butterfly which is 40% equities has beaten 60/40 in return , had much lower swings and less losing years .

the cycle is ALWAYS two parts eventually , the bull and at some point the recession . our returns 80% of the time are somewhere between the last high and last low .

it only makes sense that there are asset combo's that instead of having higher peaks and deeper valleys go far straighter to the same point.

i kind of like that model for some of my dough when i am not comfortable with things . it still can do as well as my typical portfolio which is 50/50 but it holds up far better if we slide . at 66 and dependent on our portfolio for survival i am not interested in riding anything in to valleys if i can work around it without giving up much upside . the nice thing is there is little penalty for guessing wrong with these models since over the long term they have done as well or better than typical 50/50 or 60/40 mixes .
You make it sound oh so simple and if it's a science....

you said:
the difference is you give up some potential bull gains for making a lot more gains when things turn downward with equities .

I like simplicity....you like maneuvering around a lot...bottom line is that equities are up almost 70% of the time...a portfolio that "does better when equities goes down" net net will not yield a better result overall....sounds like fuzzy math
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Old 07-27-2018, 07:26 AM
 
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you are correct , the bulls are more common than the bears .

but more than 10 years in to the bull odds are you are closer to the end then the beginning .

but even so the numbers show it really didn't matter .those portfolio's i mentioned still beat a 60/40 for almost 40 years . simply because as little as those recessions happen compared to the bull years , when they do the steeper climb back makes a big difference .
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Old 07-27-2018, 07:33 AM
 
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you can see here how for 40 years now the 40% equity butterfly did better than a 60/40 mix even though the butterfly holds 20% gold ,20% cash ,20% long term treasuries and 40% equities .

it had higher average real returns , less losing years and smaller swings .

as investors we always think in terms of more gains but the fact is our returns consist of the gains and the losses when it comes to our years we are investing and not losing can end up winning at times by a wide margin . so it is not just about what happens when things go up , but what do we need to over come to get back when they go down . all returns are real returns ( after inflation )




Last edited by mathjak107; 07-27-2018 at 07:43 AM..
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Old 07-27-2018, 07:36 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,423 posts, read 28,498,647 times
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U.S. economic growth has been steady but mostly moderate since 2009. It never really got “hot.”

I think that’s part of the reason we’ve gone this long without seeing a recession.
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Old 07-27-2018, 07:41 AM
 
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from what i read from the sources i trust , 2008 was such a horrible shock to the system that it took indicators almost 7 years to get to the point that they show what we typically show in the early stages of a recovery . it took many more years for things to work there way through .

so the recovery really got off to a late start
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Old 07-27-2018, 08:38 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FREE866 View Post
I like some of what you said, in that 2008 was atypical...i'll also add a bad accounting rule affecting 5 trillion dollars in lending had a lot to do with it

However, there is and never was a "trade war"..that was a media narrative that got traction and people just poured gasoline on that fire....we have an 87 trillion dollar global economy....any proposed tariffs, even IF they all went through and they won't/wouldn't would be a few hundred billion which is a rounding error! Pure false fear....dont buy into it!
The facts often have little to do with perceptions. Trump has managed to anger Canadian, European and virtually every other leader except for Kim and Putin. He talks a tough line on trade and tariffs. People listen and react. It is sort of like the Greek issue of years ago. No big deal but the markets drops substantially with every news item or rumor. Trumps behaviors and threats of widening trade wars cause reactions. Canadians, Europeans, and Chinese are starting to boycott American products with or without tariffs. These sorts of things are not going to end even if Trump decides to tell his supporters that he has won. With the uncertainties, businesses are holding back on some investments and projects that would have been in play. These sorts of collateral damages are worse than our tariffs and tariffs being imposed by other countries.
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Old 07-27-2018, 08:42 AM
 
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i agree , ceo's say they are waiting to make not only capital expenditures , but to see if they will be closing production lines going overseas . they are prepared to close factories here and open them over seas .

that should make america great again ha ha ha
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