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This could be a precursor of things to come. I have examined our retirement needs and lightened up our equity allocation. Not timing just making a permanent shift. I'm pretty confident we are more close than not to a major market decline. Things are going on in our country right now that could be quite bad for the market. Market risks outweigh potential returns.
This could be a precursor of things to come. I have examined our retirement needs and lightened up our equity allocation. Not timing just making a permanent shift. I'm pretty confident we are more close than not to a major market decline. Things are going on in our country right now that could be quite bad for the market. Market risks outweigh potential returns.
Where are the "THANK YOU MR PRESIDENT FOR THIS GREAT STOCK MARKET" posts?
Those seemed to disappear.
You don't like tariffs? Wall St. sure doesn't.
Well, now you guys who hate him finally have a good reason to blame him for the bad market, before, it was just pure hate driven complaints.
I am in the Philippines with an often bad internet connection, so I mostly read and do not bother to post as much while here, I have enough other issues I am dealing with while here.
As for the market of late, OUCH! but I will survive and I am not pulling my money out, I would be putting more in and probably will but with a 12 hour time difference and a lousy connection, it sort of makes buying a pain.
Relax, this is likely a shadow game. There's going to be a consultation period where people can say why a product shouldn't be subject to tariffs. K Street will take care of the rest.
Reagan started off protectionist actually. Japan was the terror of US jobs then. While his tariffs didn't last, they did help draw in Fujitsu and the automakers to start producing more in the US.
It's going to be hell to trade around with both the gas (infrastructure/tax breaks), and the brakes (tariffs/interest rates/central bank balance sheet) being hit at the same time. No doubt some participants will pee their pants and bow out, but this is a rough and tumble President...and if he CAN start restoring normalcy to the now chronic trade deficit, he's truly going to be a still despicable, but also great leader. Those monotonous jobs aren't coming back, but production could, and it will give Silicon Valley something constructive to automate other than cat videos. It doesn't work if the entire supply chain is elsewhere though.
If tariffs take hold, there's a chance that end of line pure domestic supply chains will do well. The obvious one is defense, but you may want to look at property management companies like RMR. Remember, to skirt around a tarriff, you need to locate in that country, so it may force investment here. Utilities will be hurt by interest rates, but I don't seeing those going to 5 any time in the near future, so those might not be bad plays in areas that are growing....and outside of litigious California. Your domestic trends are the millenials turning 30...so maybe there's a pop in home buying...so the real estate services might be good. Your other giant group, the boomers, are getting older, so don't bow out of healthcare/biotechs entirely.
Some of the blue chip companies the market has been hating lately are worth picking up. Just look at the balance sheets, and see if they look completely leveraged or if they're ok. Flip to the P&L, take their interest expense and add 20-30% on it. Can they still pay their dividend easily? Ok...might be dead money for a bit, but the yield on some of these is still higher than what a bond will give you, and one day the market will stop hating them.
Just remember, the US has outlasted so many empires that have fallen. Great Britain, Spain, Imperial Japan, Soviet Union etc. The game changes, but as long as there's freedom to change with it, there's money to be made. With an economy at full employment and a world economy that's getting close to firing on all cylinders, the President can afford to make some mistakes here. Besides, the world gave China its supply chain, China has just moved sharply to the far left and Xi is centralizing power while rapidly building military capability. It's time to call this the failure it is and to start moving what we can back.
Relax, this is likely a shadow game. There's going to be a consultation period where people can say why a product shouldn't be subject to tariffs. K Street will take care of the rest.
Reagan started off protectionist actually. Japan was the terror of US jobs then. While his tariffs didn't last, they did help draw in Fujitsu and the automakers to start producing more in the US.
It's going to be hell to trade around with both the gas (infrastructure/tax breaks), and the brakes (tariffs/interest rates/central bank balance sheet) being hit at the same time. No doubt some participants will pee their pants and bow out, but this is a rough and tumble President...and if he CAN start restoring normalcy to the now chronic trade deficit, he's truly going to be a still despicable, but also great leader. Those monotonous jobs aren't coming back, but production could, and it will give Silicon Valley something constructive to automate other than cat videos. It doesn't work if the entire supply chain is elsewhere though.
If tariffs take hold, there's a chance that end of line pure domestic supply chains will do well. The obvious one is defense, but you may want to look at property management companies like RMR. Remember, to skirt around a tarriff, you need to locate in that country, so it may force investment here. Utilities will be hurt by interest rates, but I don't seeing those going to 5 any time in the near future, so those might not be bad plays in areas that are growing....and outside of litigious California. Your domestic trends are the millenials turning 30...so maybe there's a pop in home buying...so the real estate services might be good. Your other giant group, the boomers, are getting older, so don't bow out of healthcare/biotechs entirely.
Some of the blue chip companies the market has been hating lately are worth picking up. Just look at the balance sheets, and see if they look completely leveraged or if they're ok. Flip to the P&L, take their interest expense and add 20-30% on it. Can they still pay their dividend easily? Ok...might be dead money for a bit, but the yield on some of these is still higher than what a bond will give you, and one day the market will stop hating them.
Just remember, the US has outlasted so many empires that have fallen. Great Britain, Spain, Imperial Japan, Soviet Union etc. The game changes, but as long as there's freedom to change with it, there's money to be made. With an economy at full employment and a world economy that's getting close to firing on all cylinders, the President can afford to make some mistakes here. Besides, the world gave China its supply chain, China has just moved sharply to the far left and Xi is centralizing power while rapidly building military capability. It's time to call this the failure it is and to start moving what we can back.
Actually if you read Trumps Art of the Deal book this is EXACTLY how he always starts negotiations! He has done this already a few times in his term--“I will build a border wall and make Mexico pay for it” . Same thing with Obamacare " we will replace and repeal". Whatever results in this new trade threat will most likely result in a very watered down version. Even so, if China does "retaliate" their tariffs they apply would be 2-3% of total US exports. It's simply not that big!
This is what volatility looks like and why most people get distracted and buy and sell on emotion. If you're a long term investor this really is meaningless.
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McMaster is definitely out
Too late for that!
