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We've never before had a Tweeter in Chief™, who daily and very publicly exposed his immaturity and pettiness for the world to witness. We've never before had a president who thinks he's the expert on every single thing ever and espouses chaos for his own amusement. We've never before had a TV Reality Show Shill as a president.
These are all new things this country has allowed, and the impact of this uncouth, impetuous, uninformed oval dweller is felt world-wide as well as on the financial markets. This is unchartered territory and the market is reflecting the uncertainty given an unpredictable and oppositional person at the helm.
Bear markets are born on euphoria, grow on grinding economics, mature on recession and die on panic.
You actually think we are in a state of euphoria?
We passed euphoria in January. Now, the hope is with another earnings season upon us the grinding economy will not be evident near term - but it's coming. Rising deficits, fewer than anticipated tax revenues, higher interest rates and threat of tariffs impeding corporate borrowing and expansion. GOP has been complaining and complaining about low growth. Well, no reputable economist expects growth any higher than what we've had up to this point 2.5-2.7% - the one aberrational quarter notwithstanding. 3% and higher on a sustained basis is a pipe dream, as will soon be evident. Kudlow, the fool, has been certain with the tax cuts we'll eventually be seeing a consistent 4%.
We passed euphoria in January. Now, the hope is with another earnings season upon us the grinding economy will not be evident near term - but it's coming. Risking deficits, fewer than anticipated tax revenues, higher interest rates and threat of tariffs impeding corporate borrowing and expansion. GOP has been complaining and complaining about low growth. Well, no reputable economist expects growth any higher than what we've had up to this point 2.5-2.7% - the one aberrational quarter notwithstanding. 3% and higher on a sustaned basis is a pipe dream, as will soon be evident.
You actually think we are in a period of euphoric sentiment?
How old are you? do you remember 2000? or 1987? Thats what euphoria looks like.
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria
I'd say we are in the cautiously optimistic phase at this point.
No, I said we had already passed euphoria. Euphoria ended in January.
As long as this bull market has run, how can anyone be "cautiously optimistic" for longer than another year or so? I had been hoping, after 2017, for one or - at best - two more good years - at least one of which might actually have been possible in 2018. But oval office idiocy has done quite a number on that. 76 y/o, btw.
No, I said we had already passed euphoria. Euphoria ended in January.
As long as this bull market has run, how can anyone be "cautiously optimistic" for longer than another year or so? I had been hoping, after 2017, for one or - at best - two more good years - at least one of which might actually have been possible in 2018. But oval office idiocy has done quite a number on that. 76 y/o, btw.
I don't like him either, but quantify for me what he has done or will do to have a meaningful effect on what moves stocks. And don't just bark out CNBC headlines of the day or some blabber about deficits, or interest rates. Thx
I don't like him either, but quantify for me what he has done or will do to have a meaningful effect on what moves stocks. And don't just bark out CNBC headlines of the day or some blabber about deficits, or interest rates. Thx
Sorry, if you don't think deficits and interest rates are worth putting in the mix. Most 'real' economists do.
First thing 'he' has done - actually Congress did it - was enact an irresponsible, deficit ballooning tax bill.
Second thing he has "done" is announce tariffs, creating a potential trade war, which creates a ton of uncertainty, and is oppositional to the benefits expected from the tax cuts - not to mention the inappropriate bullying tweet attacks on business (today it's Amazon, tomorrow it will be another target) is what he has "done." The tariffs, in particular, will cause some companies to reconsider expansion, repatriation. His attacks on Amazon are completely inappropriate engendering a real lack of confidence in his leadership. None of that bodes well for "expansion." And, this is only the beginning of his second year - his first 'real' year of doing it "his way." We've got a lot to look forward too - most of it bad - if precedent is any indicator.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 04-04-2018 at 09:02 PM..
Sorry, if you don't think deficits and interest rates are worth putting in the mix. Most 'real' economists do.
First thing 'he' has done - actually Congress did it - was enact an irresponsible, deficit ballooning tax bill.
Second thing he has "done" is announce tariffs, creating a potential trade war, which creates a ton of uncertainty - not to mention the inappropriate bullying tweet attacks on business (today it's Amazon, tomorrow it will be another target) is what he has "done." The tariffs, in particular, will cause some companies to reconsider expansion, repatriation. His attacks on Amazon are completely inappropriate engendering a real lack of confidence in his leadership. None of that bodes well for "expansion."
Are these really your concerns? or is just what the talking heads on CNBC have been barking at you the last couple of days?
And when are "real" economists ever uniformly correct in their predictions?
Interest rates
The slope of the yield curve is very healthy at this point. If we see an inversion ( where short rates go higher than long rates) it's a great sign a recession is near, but even then historically the market can go higher for a bit after inversion. The fact that the Fed is raising rates is fine, but , yes an inversion could cause sign of trouble.
Deficits
are you talking trade? I'm assuming you are. Trade deficits are a sign of a robust economy as it says we are importing and consuming a lot. Even so , if you look at history deficits are very poor predictors of where the market is headed.
Tariffs:
The US exported $2.344 trillion worth of goods and services in 2017. A tariff on 50 billion might sound scary, but you have to look at the number in context. It's meaningless in the big picture.
Amazon and tweeting:
Boeing is up 22% since Trumps tweets attacking them...my point is that Trump attacking AMZN via tweets isn't something to be concerned about long term
These are headline grabbing pieces of news that are insignificant IF you're a long term investor.
Don't let the noise of the day detract you from your long term goals.
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