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i can't say what "they " should do . each situation can be different . but i don't look at it as risky now , i look at it as only volatile when i have a diversified portfolio of funds the cycle can swing .
so the answer for general advice is do nothing different . maybe go 40% instead of 50% equity or 50% instead of 60% , but other than that i would just turn off the noise , focus on your long term needs for income generation and just have an assortment of bond funds laddered for the early years .
We have to agree to disagree on this one. With a short-term time horizon, I think and have thought for a while, we are in a risky time in the market. We have goals; build a retirement home in the mountains, annuitize a chunk of our retirement assets, etc. Since we plan to do this in 4-5 years and have enough already to do this, it would be foolhardy to leave this $ in the market when we are earning 3-4% with no risk.
well do what you want but i think it is being short sighted and will cost you in the end vs just letting the cycle run it's course , be in it and waiting when it flips and off to the races again .
everyone has the vision of missing the down turns and buying in after . instead they miss the early run ups , and never have the balances they should have had . but it is your money , do as you like . .
but that does not mean it is the best way to go about it , you just have to live with that choice same as us who let the cycle run it's course . .
well do what you want but i think it is being short sighted and will cost you in the end vs just letting the cycle run it's course , be in it and waiting when it flips and off to the races again .
everyone has the vision of missing the down turns and buying in after . instead they miss the early run ups , and never have the balances they should have had not thinking they are going to dodge the dip
The point is it doesn't matter if there is a runup in the next 3-4 years. We are willing to sacrifice that possibile return since we already have enough (and are earning 3-4% safely), and the risk doesn't justify the return over this short period of time. In our Roth IRAs, the risk does justify the return. We are invested very aggressively in 100% equity since we won't need the $ for a very long time, if ever.
well do what you want but i think it is being short sighted and will cost you in the end vs just letting the cycle run it's course , be in it and waiting when it flips and off to the races again .
everyone has the vision of missing the down turns and buying in after . instead they miss the early run ups , and never have the balances they should have had . but it is your money , do as you like . .
but that does not mean it is the best way to go about it , you just have to live with that choice same as us who let the cycle run it's course . .
I have no problem with what you suggest. The market goes up, it goes down, thats life. I have stayed with the same basic investment model (similar to yours) for the past 12 years and it has served me well. However, it is not my primary source of income. But I do expect my IRAs and minimum distributions to continue on somewhat consistent in value.
The problem is that I have absolutely no confidence in the current administration. None. I think that it is very possible letting this cycle run its course could go on for months (years?). And thats what worries a lot of people.
The question is if you believe the market is risky, what, if anything, should you do? If you are planning to use the money to buy a car or house in 3-5 years OR are planning to retire in 3-5 years, and planning to annuitize a chunk of your portfolio, it is important to realize that we are (I believe) in a risky period, and you may want to consider moving to more conservative investments
First, thank you Lizap for the interesting discussion points. Appreciate your perspective on all of this.
I've decided to use the inverse glide path as my way of reducing sequence of risk returns, and pushing out higher equity allocations to monies I don't plan to use for at least 6 years or so. That means for the intervening years using a variety of bond funds, income funds, lower equity allocations (but not zero equity allocations), some alternatives, some CDs, high interest savings and whatever else may make sense.
I have no problem with what you suggest. The market goes up, it goes down, thats life. I have stayed with the same basic investment model (similar to yours) for the past 12 years and it has served me well. However, it is not my primary source of income. But I do expect my IRAs and minimum distributions to continue on somewhat consistent in value.
The problem is that I have absolutely no confidence in the current administration. None. I think that it is very possible letting this cycle run its course could go on for months (years?). And thats what worries a lot of people.
OR..the bull run is about to end its cycle...that IS possible you know.
The bull ending, the bear (a long one) starting. The issue.
Right so you cant expect the same returns for your IRA.. returns of 5 percent over the next 5 - 8 years may well be looked back on as quite healthy. I wouldn't doubt by 2020 when interest are up a 5 percent 5 year cd will be out there that will look mighty good compared to a stock market sliding sideways. That said I still think we see another equity bump this year before the recession hits home.
Right so you cant expect the same returns for your IRA.. returns of 5 percent over the next 5 - 8 years may well be looked back on as quite healthy. I wouldn't doubt by 2020 when interest are up a 5 percent 5 year cd will be out there that will look mighty good compared to a stock market sliding sideways. That said I still think we see another equity bump this year before the recession hits home.
This is pure speculation, but I tend to agree. I think there will be another substantial leg up to entice people back in and then the bottom falls out later this year or early 2019.
The problem is that I have absolutely no confidence in the current administration. None. I think that it is very possible letting this cycle run its course could go on for months (years?). And thats what worries a lot of people.
Exactly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03
OR..the bull run is about to end its cycle...that IS possible you know.
None of the angst and unprecedented volatility we've been experiencing would be on the radar for another year or more without the current Village Idiot and thoughtless sabre-rattling of a trade war. Further, the Chinese are a whole hell of a lot smarter than anyone in this Admin.
Not betting on The Moron who went bankrupt numerous times, stole from all and sundry - to this time come out on top - without everyone else paying the price, as is usual in his debacles.
Chinese may be thieves, but they are whole hell of a lot more clever than The Moron. Sadly, when all is said and done, once, again, the citizenry will PAY for this lunacy - sooner rather than later - in unemployment and higher prices.
Some clearly still believe stupidity, vulgarity, bullying, and ignorance is an asset. Too bad for us the rest of the much more intelligent world knows better. Trump is as transparent as glass to the Chinese. He will be played like a fiddle.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 04-06-2018 at 07:32 PM..
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