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Bull markets are born on pessimism , grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.
Certainly doesn't feel like euphoria to me!
If we had any euphoria, it was in January of this year. What seems to be happening now, is good old-fashioned fear. Any explanation could be trotted out by commentators, trying to make sense of daily events. But most such explanations could be summarized by this non-explanation: the market is looking for any excuse to sell-off. It need not be a compelling excuse. And even good news could be spun to look like bad news. Why is this so? I have no idea. It just "is".
Anyone who went through 2008, had monies in the market, and *SURVIVED* and thrived should realize if they survived that, they can handle the next downturn. The lesson from 2008 was no matter how bad it got (and it got really bad), the ones who lost were the ones who panicked, sold, locked in their losses, and then were too afraid to get back in the market.
Those who stayed the course and kept going did fine and dandy over the next 9 years. That's the reality.
Markets just turned positive today despite interest rates going even higher than open, the 10YT hit 3.03% now... sounds like no fear and plenty of euphoria to me! Yes, companies are posting record profits but that is yesterday's news not what will happen in the future which is what the stock market is mostly concerned about anyway. Looks like there is a huge disconnect between reality and perception which is what I would call euphoria.
Markets just turned positive today despite interest rates going even higher than open, the 10YT hit 3.03% now... sounds like no fear and plenty of euphoria to me! Yes, companies are posting record profits but that is yesterday's news not what will happen in the future which is what the stock market is mostly concerned about anyway. Looks like there is a huge disconnect between reality and perception which is what I would call euphoria.
If you call this euphoria then you must not have been around in the summer of 1987 or the early spring of 2000.
Anyone who went through 2008, had monies in the market, and *SURVIVED* and thrived should realize if they survived that, they can handle the next downturn. The lesson from 2008 was no matter how bad it got (and it got really bad), the ones who lost were the ones who panicked, sold, locked in their losses, and then were too afraid to get back in the market.
Those who stayed the course and kept going did fine and dandy over the next 9 years. That's the reality.
This is true, and your point bears repeating, even if our various respective situations, values etc. differ markedly. Unfortunately, every successive crisis of the moment, feels the starkest. Today's headache or skin-irritation feels worse than that broken leg from 10 years ago. The former has receded into memory. The current is poignant and topical. Experience teaches us on an intellectual level, but on an emotional level, the lesson isn't as forthcoming. And thus it will be again, in 2027 or 2049 or whatever, at the next teetering or crash or "decimation" (which really just means a 10% loss).
Those of us who live in the "heartland", had little cognizance of a real-estate bubble. We didn't meet any of the characters in "The Big Short". Our landscapers, barbers and shoe-shine-boys didn't speculate in flipping McMansions. The bustle and excess that caused instabilities, mal-investment and crashes, was for us blindsiding and shocking. So it will likely be, at the next event - its antecedents, unfolding, and eventual resolution. Learn this, study that - and what?
So, yes, of course we stay the course; what else is there to do? But on this cloudy, soggy and unseasonably cold day (as so many others in recent times), how does one stave off that numb feeling of maladroit helplessness?
markets are UP, investors are largely shrugging off higher rates... even though the 10YT went even higher today at 3.02%. Everyone was predicting total doom when the 10YT hit 3% but it seems to be a non-event. Just goes to show that predicting/timing the market is a fools errand.
there is no direct link from rates to housing markets . housing is dependent on the local economy more than anything . the housing bubble was when mortgages were 6-7%
markets are UP, investors are largely shrugging off higher rates... even though the 10YT went even higher today at 3.02%. Everyone was predicting total doom when the 10YT hit 3% but it seems to be a non-event. Just goes to show that predicting/timing the market is a fools errand.
there is no direct link from rates to housing markets . housing is dependent on the local economy more than anything . the housing bubble was when mortgages were 6-7%
Higher interest rates will eventually impact house sales as fewer people will be able to qualify for mortgages.
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