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Well that's really kind of ridiculous. Long term mutual and index fund investors are better off in the long run (and by long run I'm talking over 10 years) not selling anything until monies are needed for spending.
Name one time the US stock market has never recovered. Even the Great Depression didn't stop the markets, as they recovered in about 4 years and went on to new and greater heights.
Guess I'm lost on this point. There's been a huge push in my lifetime to reduce tariffs. That was one of the ultimate items for the Eurozone, it kickstarted NAFTA and CAFTA to depend great trade ties, as the Soviet Bloc went away, here came our free trade to get them all jump started into good little democracies....or if they weren't the guy we hated the most like in an area....or maybe they were just poor and we felt bad....or had a gargantuan population....or maybe they just speak English.
Yeah, I get that it could have been done better. The new rich countries are going to learn from what we've done, but hopefully we can still be the good guy....because for all the swipes and cheats that take us down....that freedom and rule of law is still a valuable combo...even as we peck away at it.
i figure that there have probably been tariff talks throughout our history. i dont really think that trump intends to maintain these tariffs or implement most of them. he is trying to remove tariffs on US exports. so i dont think there is a point in pretending that the sky is falling when all this could have come and gone in the next year.
also, the US isnt the good guy and has never been the good guy. the US may have been relatively good compared to some other parties but it has always been bad and now is probably the worst actor in the world. also, we are not free. maybe we are relatively free compared to some others; but we shouldnt pretend that we are free.
i figure that there have probably been tariff talks throughout our history. i dont really think that trump intends to maintain these tariffs or implement most of them. he is trying to remove tariffs on US exports. so i dont think there is a point in pretending that the sky is falling when all this could have come and gone in the next year.
also, the US isnt the good guy and has never been the good guy. the US may have been relatively good compared to some other parties but it has always been bad and now is probably the worst actor in the world. also, we are not free. maybe we are relatively free compared to some others; but we shouldnt pretend that we are free.
Relatively better delivers a lot more effective freedoms than absolutes do. I'll never bash being pragmatic over being blindly idealistic. Socialism has a lot of lofty ideals, but none of it works. For people trapped in those countries, they have very little freedom, even if the law allows them to eat cake. Monarchs and Dictators can be benevolent. Some perhaps even are, but when things are decided by people and not laws....and yes there's always a blur...then you never can know where you stand. That's not freedom.
Right now, in my home, I'm free to enjoy climate controlled environment, or I can step outside and enjoy my new pergola or perhaps go for ride in a car that is relatively free of being stolen or seized and visit thousands of places or shops to work or play, within rules established to make this good for all. Because others can do the same, there are lots of ways people can make money. Needs and wants change and the market is free to profit on that, and if they succeed, it's their money to keep. We can all be any religion we'd like, any race we were born in, move to neighboring areas if we prefer.
Now, I can't run in naked public, drive 100 mph in a school zone to get somewhere or decide to start shooting targets in my backyard...but that's ok. Certainly theres aspects of crony capitalism that stink, and there's crime around...but it's not the design...it's cheaters and if caught they'll get punished. Where the US can help imperfectly establish that instead of supporting some warlord or socialist paradise....sounds pretty good to me.
Now, I can't run in naked public, drive 100 mph in a school zone to get somewhere or decide to start shooting targets in my backyard...but that's ok. Certainly theres aspects of crony capitalism that stink, and there's crime around...but it's not the design...it's cheaters and if caught they'll get punished. Where the US can help imperfectly establish that instead of supporting some warlord or socialist paradise....sounds pretty good to me.
the US has the highest incarceration rate in the world because we are so free.
and what country has murdered the most people in other countries during the 21st century? when it comes to foreign policy, the US government/military is the modern day evil aggressor with millions of murders under its belt.
I have a lot of money in a high yield account. Also have a lot in bank CDs paying 2.85% APY. Keeps up with inflation. The rest is in my 401K in a plan that guarantees 3% each year, is not affected by the market and is insured so that I will never lose my principal. I chose it when the market was coming out of the 2008 recession and at the time 3% was low. However I will get that 3 percent every year and the best part is that the 3% almost covers my mandatory withdrawal so my balance will not go down much each year.
I am waiting for the next recession and then will buy Index ETFs at bargain basement prices. My stock market money is not needed to live on as that is covered. I want it to grow to cover assisted living in case both of us need it. I have twice entered the stock market right before a recession and am not going to make that mistake again. I know all about it being impossible to time the market but the guys who say that are not going to try to encourage people not to invest as it affects their income. What is so difficult to know when you are in a recession and then dollar average when it starts too get better? I have learned the hard way that when the doom and gloom, end of life as we know it talks start, it is time to enter the stock market.
Right now I am not affected by the stock market so I have peace of mind. My friends are dreading a recession because they need income from their stocks. I will never need income from the stock market, just growth over the next 20 years and that is very doable.
I have a lot of money in a high yield account. Also have a lot in bank CDs paying 2.85% APY. Keeps up with inflation. The rest is in my 401K in a plan that guarantees 3% each year, is not affected by the market and is insured so that I will never lose my principal. I chose it when the market was coming out of the 2008 recession and at the time 3% was low. However I will get that 3 percent every year and the best part is that the 3% almost covers my mandatory withdrawal so my balance will not go down much each year.
I am waiting for the next recession and then will buy Index ETFs at bargain basement prices. My stock market money is not needed to live on as that is covered. I want it to grow to cover assisted living in case both of us need it. I have twice entered the stock market right before a recession and am not going to make that mistake again. I know all about it being impossible to time the market but the guys who say that are not going to try to encourage people not to invest as it affects their income. What is so difficult to know when you are in a recession and then dollar average when it starts too get better? I have learned the hard way that when the doom and gloom, end of life as we know it talks start, it is time to enter the stock market.
Right now I am not affected by the stock market so I have peace of mind. My friends are dreading a recession because they need income from their stocks. I will never need income from the stock market, just growth over the next 20 years and that is very doable.
I'm not sure what your time horizon is , but if you want/need growth from the portfolio you've made an awful decision by buying an insurance product that "guarantees 3% and preserves principal" esp given you bought coming out of a recession....do you realize how much money you left on the table for that "guarantee"?
the US has the highest incarceration rate in the world because we are so free.
and what country has murdered the most people in other countries during the 21st century? when it comes to foreign policy, the US government/military is the modern day evil aggressor with millions of murders under its belt.
Still, it's nice to have people thrown in prison because they break laws and are tried in a justice system. It leaves me with the freedom to not worry about getting mugged walking to a 7-11*. Other countries throw people in prison for religious or political differences.
Economically, this means we have a better market, with more participants.
As to the other...not sure. Darfur region of Sudan?
Economically, I wouldn't recommend investing there.
Brazilian soybeans....could be good for the futures market.
... a plan that guarantees 3% each year, is not affected by the market and is insured so that I will never lose my principal. I chose it when the market was coming out of the 2008 recession ...
I am waiting for the next recession and then will buy Index ETFs at bargain basement prices.
Peace of mind isn’t to be gainsaid, but it comes at a cost. Consider that 3%/year, over the past 11 years. I intentionally pick 11 years, to place our starting-point at the then-zenith of the US stock market, in the summer of 2007. Since then, the 3%/year has compounded to a 38% gain, assuming that no annual taxes were paid. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has risen from 1550 to around 2720, for a gain of 75% - not including dividends.
The upshot is that 3%/year may accord one welcome composure and sound sleep, but it comes at a price.
As for the capacity to behold the next recession, and to act upon it, we cite at least three problems.
1. Gains might be large, between now and the advent of the next recession. Thus, that 75% - vs. 38% ratio may widen further.
2. When the time comes, would we be able to distinguish a historical bear-market from yet another histrionic correction, and act accordingly?
3. Would we sell prematurely, leaving remaining gains unrealized, scurrying back to the smothering embrace of the 3%-cloak?
It’s a fine thing, to allocate a portion of one’s money into a high-confidence, if low-return bin. But all of it, or even a majority of it? Then again – who was ever convinced of any course of action, or disabused of any bias, on the internet?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnyfl
... I have learned the hard way that when the doom and gloom, end of life as we know it talks start, it is time to enter the stock market.
Let's hearken back to the fall of 2008. We were inundated with doom-and-gloom, were we not? Was that indicative of opportune time to buy? What about say late-March, 2009. The market had turned around, beginning its remarkable ascendancy. But wasn't it the case, that doom-and-gloom remained rampant? Of course it is generally true, that intense and fantastical sentiments are a contrarian indicator, in either direction. But how specifically true is this? How accurately? In other words, we must distinguish between historical knowledge, which correctly captures general trends, and actionable knowledge, which is useful for making money.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinnyfl
...My friends are dreading a recession because they need income from their stocks. ...
Regrettably, the price of having money, is dreading its potential loss - no matter how we invest.
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