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Tony
What staying in a Holiday Inn has to do with sector investing I can't guess
And I don't think it is a "coincidence" that tech ETFs dominate the best performing ETFs for a 3 yrs period--
But that is sort term--
I am looking for returns that average above the norm---
I think most people would be happy with a return of 10% or more for 15 yrs--
I don't particularly care what "sector" or investment profile---
I am looking for stability in good and bad times---
Right now the 08 downturn is fading and soon it won't show up when you run a time-search for returns
Funds or ETFs will only show the upswing from 08 when QE was taking place and putting lot of cheap money into the economy--that is an anomaly whose effect probably really isn't quantified as to how it has effected returns of stocks/bonds/funds/ETFs
I used Zack's MF screener and asked for no-loads with at least a 10% performance over all the time periods out to 15 yrs-that is long time in mutual fund years since many close or merge over time...
There was a list of about 65 funds
Many of them were in the small cap valuation in different sectors
I don't think there were very many large caps--maybe a few mid caps
And many were in fund families I had not heard of
What am I missing when I run a search with that parameter and see there is at least a 10% avg return over those time periods?
Wouldn't that show that small caps have a more stable return history even if they might not reach the highs of large caps or certain sectors over sort term returns?
Well, I guess I’m more short-term thinking. If next year or 5 years out the best performing ETF’s are XYZ sector, I’ll switch. I don’t care about more than 3 years back - irrelevant IMHO. I don’t care about a small load. I just looked, it’s hard to find a tech ETF that made only 10% per year over the past 3 years.
It’s a total coincidence that I’ve been in IT forever and the best returns are tech. Being in tech I can understand what companies are doing - cloud, SaaS, software - what’s hot, what’s not.
It’s F’ing Moron’s tariffs that caused me to sell almost everything. The effect that they’ll have on most tech companies is scary. Probably a coincidence, but, Trump announced another sit-down w/China to discuss tariffs this week - once the market dropped. Once this trade war is settled, I’ll jump back into tech - no reason not to IMHO.
Techs ain’t for the faint of heart - today’s hot technology is tomorrow’s hula hoop. Years ago I worked for a company that had 110,00 employees - 5 years later they were outta business - they guessed wrong where the technology was heading. IBM was, of course, the main player - then they missed “the next big thing” and they’ve been struggling ever since - Amazon, Microsoft etc. are eating their lunch.
You are referring to technology stocks for companies--not mutual funds or ETFs --
We don't do stocks--
And inside the technology field there are variety of sectors for areas technology covers--
Fidelity rearranged some of its tech funds earlier this year and merged some into other so they don't always stay in same category
There is no way the world is doing w/o "tech"
Admittedly it is one of fastest evolving areas of production/design but it effects ALL our lives--even people in 3rd world countries are adopting/adapting to various aspects of technology and skipping steps that other countries moved through...
Tech might be volatile because of certain companies' roles and the growth/outdated aspects of certain areas of technology but how can anyone thing that technology is going the way of the buggy whip---
The problem is trying to choose the optimum way to benefit ($$$) from that sector
Same as food--we all need to eat and more people will be needing more food until/unless we hit Soylent Green status==
How do you anticipate and establish a gameplan to benefit from food--its growing, manufacturing/distribution, storing--
Food is spread over so many sectors--commodity, transportation, manufacturing, consumer staples, consumer discretionary (restaurants for example)...
Water--another commodity that is becoming very threatened--
Same issues...
You are referring to technology stocks for companies--not mutual funds or ETFs --
We don't do stocks--
And inside the technology field there are variety of sectors for areas technology covers--
Fidelity rearranged some of its tech funds earlier this year and merged some into other so they don't always stay in same category
There is no way the world is doing w/o "tech"
Admittedly it is one of fastest evolving areas of production/design but it effects ALL our lives--even people in 3rd world countries are adopting/adapting to various aspects of technology and skipping steps that other countries moved through...
Tech might be volatile because of certain companies' roles and the growth/outdated aspects of certain areas of technology but how can anyone thing that technology is going the way of the buggy whip---
The problem is trying to choose the optimum way to benefit ($$$) from that sector
Same as food--we all need to eat and more people will be needing more food until/unless we hit Soylent Green status==
How do you anticipate and establish a gameplan to benefit from food--its growing, manufacturing/distribution, storing--
Food is spread over so many sectors--commodity, transportation, manufacturing, consumer staples, consumer discretionary (restaurants for example)...
Water--another commodity that is becoming very threatened--
Same issues...
I AM referring to tech ETF’s of stocks. ETF’s are bundles of stocks in a certain sector - tech, healthcare, financial etc. 2/3 of my money was in 2 tech ETF’s. There are (obviously) multiple subsets of tech: software, services, hardware, semi’s etc. (I was in AAPL and 2 others - made 40+% last year). I don’t try and choose the next Apple! I choose a couple of stocks/companies that I think are simply “in the right place at the right time” and I choose the tech ETF’s that have the best performance RECENTLY, AND are in the best subset of tech IMO. Takes me all of 20 minutes! I’m fine w/30-40% growth per year!
F’ing Moron has changed EVERYTHING with his tariffs/trade wars - look at the drop in the Nasdaq recently. Tech companies are highly reliant on trade/tariffs w/China. I imagine that other sectors/companies are too, but, I’m guessing NOT to the extent of tech and/or I’m singularly focused on tech, at least for now. (I get a lotta emails etc. wanting me to invest in marijuana stocks, but, NOT interested. Although, the way F’ing Moron is going may cause me to begin smoking marijuana AND buying marijuana stocks. Even If I lose $$ I’ll be happy!).
There is supposed to be a theory as to how to rotate the sector funds based on the economic cycle
Beside the Fidelity Sector newsletter is there any well-regarded book with overview of this form of portfolio strategy?
Not saying I would do it all in---but a Roth or two might be work it
Maybe grandson's 529 could use some...
If you have a Fidelity account, there is a webinar that talks about sector investing based on the economic cycle. Currently they estimate we are in the early period of the late growth cycle, so consumer staples, energy, health care, materials, and utilities are recommended sectors to be rotating into. Sectors to reduce at this stage are technology and consumer discretionary.
If you have a Fidelity account, there is a webinar that talks about sector investing based on the economic cycle. Currently they estimate we are in the early period of the late growth cycle, so consumer staples, energy, health care, materials, and utilities are recommended sectors to be rotating into. Sectors to reduce at this stage are technology and consumer discretionary.
Thanks
A couple of others mentioned Fidelity
My husband has IRA there
I will get him to log into Fidelity and watch it
Thanks for the comments others have offered
Markets are still trying to decide if they are going to test lower levels
From: info@elliottwavetrader.net
Date: October 16, 2018 at 2:14:30 PM EDT
To: "Tony
Subject: Market Update from ElliottWaveTrader
ElliottWaveTrader - Precision wave analysis with Avi Guilburt & our Team.
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Author: Avi
Bulls Smacked The Bears Today
S&P500, IntradayChart, DailyChart
While the bulls seemingly smacked the bears today, if you pullback to the bigger picture on the 60-minute chart, you will see that we still have not even broken through resistance YET. That shows how deep a hole the bulls have found themselves within.
So, again, is 3000+ still possible for a 5th wave in a larger ending diagonal? Sure. But, as I noted today, the market has a very small hole to thread that needle:
“I don't do this very often, but, folks, I want you to take a step back for a second.
The market just broke a number of supports on its way down to its recent bottoming. Can it still get back to the ideal target region over 3000? Sure. But, I can assure you that most of the investors on this site would not likely be trading for it - and wisely so - because the risks to attain that last gain to 3000 directly from here are likely outweighed by the risk of having already begun wave 4.
Remember, when you put your money to work, you are always considering the risks vs. the reward. And, as I outlined in my weekend update BEFORE we broke down, trying to trade for that last gasp higher is often not worth the effort.
Currently, the market is testing the resistance region we have been consolidating under for the last 4 days. Unless and until it can actually take it out, I cannot even consider any potential for 3000+. And, even if it does take out resistance, there is a VERY small hole through which this market has to thread that needle to get to the 3000 region. That means the blue wave structure must PROVE it can pullback correctively and hold this resistance region as support IF - again, big IF - we are able to take out resistance.
Again, I personally view the risks as quite high in this region and most should be much more discerning of any long trades you decide to take. Remember, we have caught the rally from the 1800 region to the 2900 region. How much effort do you really think it is worth trying to get a POSSIBLE move to 3000 at this time?
Should I see something that makes me change my perspective, I will certainly put it out on an alert and update, and likely more than one. And maybe I would consider a rally from the blue b-wave corrective pullback to 3000 later this year if the set up should develop. But, for now, please recognize that the weight of evidence has shifted towards wave 4 on the larger degree charts.
I will now step off my soap box.”
At this time, resistance is still that - resistance. And, even if we are able to break out through resistance, the primary count would view that as the green (b) wave within the a-wave of wave 4. Only if the market would pullback correctively and hold this resistance region as support for the blue (b) wave would I even begin to consider any potential for 3000+ in the 5th wave of the ending diagonal.
As I noted before, there is a very small hole through which the market will be able to thread the needle to 3000+. And, even if it does, it will likely simply extend the point in time where we reach the 2600SPX region, as that is still my target for the a-wave of 4 even if we are able to get to the 3000 region to complete a bigger diagonal for wave (v) of (5).
At the end of the day, I still expect to see the 2600SPX region to complete the a-wave of wave 4. The question is from where we will see that drop. For now, my expectation is that we will not see the 3000 region – at least not until we see a successful test of this break out of resistance. But, I will retain an open mind should we be able to break out of resistance and continue to rally to 2840+SPX. But, even in that circumstance, the market will still likely come back to test this region from above, as once we break through resistance, that region becomes support which is then tested by the market. That is the (b) wave potential in blue. And, should that test fail, that tells us we are heading down to the 2600SPX region to complete the a-wave of wave 4 – even after a break out.
But, take note that the break out has not yet been seen.
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Yes--
Not the only person's input I have read about how hard it will be to break through that resistance to set new high
We put money into our grandson's 529 Utah account yesterday
Told the guy we wanted it to go into money market--not deployed yet
Guess I was told when we opened the account but had forgotten that you can't trade inside the account like you can others
We have only 2 opportunities each year to "rebalance"
So putting it into the money market vs adding to specific existing allocations counts as one of those moves
Guess it is risk waiting until closer to the elections--but seems like volatility will be part of the action for a while
The market is up today but has not closed yet
We have seen down times on days like this
I use sector funds for a black swan event -- like when oil was $30 a barrel. I knew that price wasn't sustainable so I picked up XLE which is an energy sector fund. I recently got out when oil hit $70.
The next sector I might pick up is financials XLF. In a rising rate environment, financials should benefit.
Well, I guess I’m more short-term thinking. If next year or 5 years out the best performing ETF’s are XYZ sector, I’ll switch. I don’t care about more than 3 years back - irrelevant IMHO. I don’t care about a small load. I just looked, it’s hard to find a tech ETF that made only 10% per year over the past 3 years.
It’s a total coincidence that I’ve been in IT forever and the best returns are tech. Being in tech I can understand what companies are doing - cloud, SaaS, software - what’s hot, what’s not.
It’s F’ing Moron’s tariffs that caused me to sell almost everything. The effect that they’ll have on most tech companies is scary. Probably a coincidence, but, Trump announced another sit-down w/China to discuss tariffs this week - once the market dropped. Once this trade war is settled, I’ll jump back into tech - no reason not to IMHO.
Techs ain’t for the faint of heart - today’s hot technology is tomorrow’s hula hoop. Years ago I worked for a company that had 110,00 employees - 5 years later they were outta business - they guessed wrong where the technology was heading. IBM was, of course, the main player - then they missed “the next big thing” and they’ve been struggling ever since - Amazon, Microsoft etc. are eating their lunch.
Hell, I play the horses - I like gambling! LOL
I also have worthless stock from one time high flying tech companies. Tech scares me due to momentum investing, dominance of tech in stock indexes and "dumb money" investing. You really need to understand the tech space because standard fundamental analysis does not work for the most part.
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