Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Gotcha... clearly the reporting is the problem.
But you go right ahead and bury your head back in the sand.
and the end result is wackadoodles trying to bomb news outlets.
I'm not a big fan of China from a business perspective. They've infringed on company trade secrets for years without any ramifications. It's extremely difficult to get them to honor contracts.
Trump's going to bluster through trade deals because that's what he thinks is the right thing to do, both for the country and his political base. He doesn't like Jiiina. He doesn't think they'll hold their end to any bargain made and he needed an escalation path that didn't immediately result in WTO sanctions from around the world.
He's going to hold up China for as long as he can because he can use that to show other nations what will happen to them if they don't give in to our trade demands.
but in a worldwide game of hot potato...nobody wants this guys negative attention for too long. His bully thought is its just too expensive for them to oppose him. The other side will think this is all done in a couple years, give in for now.
I would completely expect him to continue to treat China as a respected adversary or rival. He can't let it go too far or nothing gets done. He can't let it get resolved too soon, or the fear is gone and the eventual underwhelming deal seems silly. He's got Corporate America rethinking their China approach. He needs that to sink in and plans to be executed on. Then....he can relax the stance.
Honestly, it's right out of China's playbook. New product or service is launched and the founder doesn't want to do a JV with China....stall stall stall until copies or alternatives have already developed....then open the market.
He's going to stall stall stall until companies decide China is too risky to rely upon for more than selling to the Chinese market. Even if the jobs don't come back, they likely go to areas where the US has more sway.
It's far too horrible for our finely tuned tastes, but from a guy that started out comparing himself to Andrew Jackson (guy that took out the National Bank, which responded by calling in loans and crushing the country) it's not altogether unexpected.
Honestly, it adds a level to the negotiation strategy that Americans haven't used in so long, the world thought it was gone. Don't tread on me, I'll play lose-you lose more.
I would not expect a fast resolution. Xi and Trump are cut from the same cloth. Xi's smarter, but Trump has less to lose...and it's personal.
Interesting and realistic analysis which explains the games he is playing. Yes, the Chinese need to be made to behave - naive to expect we'll ever be permanently successful with that. Seeing as how Trump doesn't care how long it takes or economic damage incurred, in short, bottom line is - expect a recession here much sooner rather than later.
Guess the market knows what it's talking about after all.
The administration's history is to not remove sanctions regardless of any agreements or steps made by the other side. This appears to be a long game of trying to move the global supply chain away from reliance on China. Some of the plant capacities will move, but not all, since the requirement is that foreign plants have to produce 50% for export. China's plan has been to move their economy away from reliance on external trade, such as the Made in China 2025 program. The more independent they become, the less vulnerable they are to trade embargoes or currency attacks that the US has used in the past to destabilize other economies.
On tariff, i don't think Chinese will blink easily. Xi is kind of king now( can't be removed from post), so there is King's ego.
China is waiting for midterm results and would strategies accordingly.
So, two possible outcomes
1) If democrat wins than China will not blink easily and then current admin will also be more interested in getting any kind of deal at all , so they can use it as win in next election and name it as big win.
So in this scenario, China might blink on paper but not loose much , so win win for both.
2) If Republican wins than China have to decide either come to quick resolution or wait 2 more year.
This fight scenario will be more dangerous as China has to loose more if they blink.
If you look at admin intent, They put 10% tariff now and 25 % after midterm.
That decision alone shows that admin is only afraid of midterm and after that they are ready for the tariff fight.
They know what they are doing , and what it can lead to. So, thats why they did 10 % initially.
This intent clearly shows US is not going to blink first.
^^I think you nailed it. You confirmed my belief that a Dem win in November will not roil the markets. If anything, it should calm them and help get this tariff mess settled before we end up in premature recession. Let's hope.
Thank you for the input.
Last edited by Ariadne22; 10-27-2018 at 12:04 AM..
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
