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I put in a stop for $1,350 for my AMZN. I have 30 shares of it, so it's gonna hurt to do it but man, I'm afraid it's just gonna keep going lower for a while. If my stop order kicks in I'll just hold it and see if it gets down to $1,100 or even $1,000. If so I just may pick some up again and hold it for the long term. We'll see.
$1350 is a good stop. You saw the chart I uploaded? It fits well it. Its at a key point right now.
According to your chart, it could make one kick up back to $1650 (and the rest of the stocks I own will follow I'm sure). And you sell then.
And that's what I'm thinking too based on the recent trend.
Maybe stop at $1300 would give you a bit more wiggle room to have it get up there.
Or maybe just flat ride it out.
Using stops is to limit risk. If you use 1300 as your stop, you are risking almost 6% from today. That's a big loss. It would also have clearly broken down before it reached 1300. Remember things that are within a range don't last forever, they usually only last a short period of time before breaking out above or below. My feeling is there is more chance of it breaking below, but buying it now and using a stop at or slightly below today's intraday low would be okay. I won't be doing it myself, but if I did, that's what I'd do.
Once again, TA is all about managing risk. Also, being Friday, a lot can happen over the weekend.
Using stops is to limit risk. If you use 1300 as your stop, you are risking almost 6% from today. That's a big loss. It would also have clearly broken down before it reached 1300. Remember things that are within a range don't last forever, they usually only last a short period of time before breaking out above or below. My feeling is there is more chance of it breaking below, but buying it now and using a stop at or slightly below today's intraday low would be okay. I won't be doing it myself, but if I did, that's what I'd do.
Once again, TA is all about managing risk. Also, being Friday, a lot can happen over the weekend.
According to your chart though, the chances are great that it will hit 1600 before 1300.
According to your chart though, the chances are great that it will hit 1600 before 1300.
That's not the message you should get from it.
-It's trending down, generally you don't want to start positions in trending down stocks even if it's in a range.
-It also previously found intraday support, but today it closed near the day's low.
By buying it now, you are expecting it to test the top of the range again, but if it breaks below the range, you expect it to go even lower, you don't want to own it.
You trade based on what has happened / is happening.
You bought it because it is at the base of the range. Generally, I wouldn't buy it unless it bounces off the support line first. However, you can still do it now (more risk, more reward), but you must have a tight stop. If the stock breaks below the support line, you sell it. That's it. It's not based on what you wished happened. It broke the line, sell it.
Does that make sense?
Here is another range bound chart of SPY before it started crashing. I remember posting it a couple times as it was happening in real-time, but I'll just redraw the approx. lines again and upload the picture. You can see what happened. It bounced off on the support line and experienced stronger selling pressure where it couldn't even make it halfway up. I remember telling people, this is a sign that most likely it's going to break below the line. It happened and I went short. I didn't set the stop 6% below the line. Your risk should ideally be 2% max.
It's all about getting emotion out of the equation. It breaks the line, get rid of it. You can always buy it back later.
See the attached two charts...
Side note, when the market looks like that... it would be hard for me to buy any stock even if that stock looks healthy. Why take the added risk of finding the only working stock in a crashing market. Right?
Maybe stop at $1300 would give you a bit more wiggle room to have it get up there.
Or maybe just flat ride it out.
You can call it wiggle room but I call it another $1.5K in the trash. If your stock doesn't open up tomorrow morning I bet it will sell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi
Using stops is to limit risk. If you use 1300 as your stop, you are risking almost 6% from today. That's a big loss...
Once again, TA is all about managing risk. Also, being Friday, a lot can happen over the weekend.
Just think of all the uncertainty that can pop up since right now D.C. is all up in a flutter over the final sessions of Congress.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi
Side note, when the market looks like that... it would be hard for me to buy any stock even if that stock looks healthy. Why take the added risk of finding the only working stock in a crashing market. Right?
I"m so down on the market that I have less in my trading account than I usually spend on dining out.
this guy has some technical analysis and says the head and shoulders neckline has been broken convincingly and the next stop is around the 980 area which is a 30% drop from here:
this guy has some technical analysis and says the head and shoulders neckline has been broken convincingly and the next stop is around the 980 area which is a 30% drop from here:
I usually never agree with charts people share because I can usually see through them as not actually knowing their s***. However, this one, I actually have similar feelings, except I'm not ready to say we are going to see a crash. If we do, I can see SPY going down to $181 range to test those levels that held multiple times over the course of two years. I also agree with the worse case scenario for AMZN as well. I still think it's too early though to say.
That's a pretty spooky video. Like the da-dum da-dum before you see the shark in the movie.
I have been thinking of projecting AMZN into 2020, but since its fall from grace I never gave any thought to projecting the current bottom, because I had no statistical basis. However the video target is a smidgen below where I said I would get interested, so we're thinking along the same lines.
Around then it may make sense to begin timed buys, and follow and test the bottom. Around there it looks like a pretty good bet over perhaps 10 years. We know AMZN will not go below zero, and IMO it will probably set a new record high some day if they aren't broken up.
Is there any truth to that old saw that when a market goes down it has to go half way back to it's most recent low before it can turn up again? Or is that just novice talk?
Is there any truth to that old saw that when a market goes down it has to go half way back to it's most recent low before it can turn up again? Or is that just novice talk?
Not really...
2007 to 2009 - S&P 500 - 56%
2000 to 2002 - S&P 500 - 49%
1987 to 1987 - S&P 500 - 34%
1980 to 1982 - S&P 500 - 28%
1973 to 1974 - S&P 500 - 48%
1968 to 1970 - S&P 500 - 36%
1961 to 1962 - S&P 500 - 28%
1946 to 1949 - S&P 500 - 30%
1929 to 1932 - S&P 500 - 86%
Last edited by bmw335xi; 12-23-2018 at 10:59 PM..
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