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it can bounce back in a week . no one knows . the smart do not try to time this . you take the cheaper prices if you have reason to buy or rebalance and just ride the cycle .... no one will call the bottom , nor the turn around point . nor in the long term will you even remember this happened .
well my allocation is 50% but i slid in to the low 40"s so i need to add quite a bit in dollars . when the day comes the end of the month i will just click as unemotionally as i can and do what needs to be done . this is where pucker factor comes in to play . while others are running out of a burning building you are running in .
well my allocation is 50% but i slid in to the low 40"s so i need to add quite a bit in dollars . when the day comes the end of the month i will just click as unemotionally as i can and do what needs to be done . this is where pucker factor comes in to play . while others are running out of a burning building you are running in .
A very dovish Fed report Wednesday...and everything will change on a dime. A hawkish stance and there will be an avalanche.
I think characterizing this as a conflict between Powell and Trump is reading too much into things, although I admit Trump has been critical of Powell.
The most recent Powell quotes I've seen on CNBC indicate December is almost certain, but 2019 is looking more like maybe just 2 rate increases, and that depending on market conditions.
Remember the Fed uses the prime to speed up the economy if it is slowing down, that they usually do it by 1/4 percent increments, and that if the rate goes to 2.5% later this month that leaves them with only 10 bullets in their gun, 10 chances to stimulate the economy if it is flagging at some point in the future.
Personally I do not think there is any danger at all that the US economy is overheating.
ETA:
Just to add, I think the world economy IS in trouble and it's not from overheating, and I think the main US problem is not the Fed, it's the US-China trade negotiations. And the latter is getting more complicated now that it appears that China's economy may be slowing down. IMO Europe is not looking good either, not with the specter of Brexit and the various economic woes that EU faces.
Last edited by Lovehound; 12-16-2018 at 01:43 PM..
It is going to be 0.25 percent because 0.25 percent is already cooked into the market (IMO). Setting it to a smaller amounts might result in 1-2 days of roadkill bounce. There is more mileage to be obtained from not raising it in the future than reducing next week's increase.
It is going to be 0.25 percent because 0.25 percent is already cooked into the market (IMO). Setting it to a smaller amounts might result in 1-2 days of roadkill bounce. There is more mileage to be obtained from not raising it in the future than reducing next week's increase.
That’s what the pundits on CNBC have been saying, but they are not always correct.
OP:
I will be jumping in when SPX hits 2600, likely VLCAX (VG large cap) in a taxable thanks to Vanguard's recent lowering of min invest amount to $3K for admiral class.
Well Friday's close of 2599.95, was tempting.
It's Monday and it's nearing around 2550...tempting.
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