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The crash from the 29 to the 30s can't happen again because the nation doesn't allow those things to occur anymore.
Margin buying is regulated now
There are social safety nets
Trading curbs
The reasons the crash occurred is not possible to recreate today due to those conditions no longer being part of the equation. The variables don't exist like they did.
Not to say we couldn't already be in the middle of a lost decade or two. We probably are. If we see a recession and prolonged bear market which is certainly possible we could find that adjusted for inflation, much of the gains during the last 10 years are all we'll see or even perhaps wiped out completely.
Government spending is a massive bubble. We still need to address FICA. We are seeing the very beginning of the end for fossil fuels which account for massive amounts of GDP for certain States. There is a massive commercial real estate bubble as all this retail consolidates to a few online players and a few brick and mortar. There is a pretty big corporate bond bubble as well. Especially in high flyers like Netflix, telsa or even old companies like at&t
We probably are heading for recession. What exactly will be there to pull us out?
It won't be 1929... or 2008 for that matter. But I think the sugar rush is definitely over. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see Dow 26k again for another 2 years. It'll surge up past 30k eventually but I think we're several years out from that.
The Fed is absolutely right to raise interest rates. I care more about long term monetary stability than I do stock market gains in the short term.
As for now I am sticking to my asset allocation plan.
I really think his basic thesis about Federal Reserve money printing and government deficits is correct. But predicting when the crash will happen is difficult.
This.
See also Peter Schiff...
I got out of my 401K funds on 9/18
However, I am getting hurt in my personal account and ROTH, but it is manageable.
Perhaps "the Singularity" will save us from "the Liquidation". Unless of course Paul is warning us that we're all to become Peter Thiel's personal soylent green stash.
I think Elon Musk would be more likely to stash soylent green than Thiel--he seems too prudish for that dish...
I really think his basic thesis about Federal Reserve money printing and government deficits is correct.
People like Ron Paul who claim a loaf of bread would still be $0.05 if we would still be on the Gold Standard are ignorant fools who have zero understanding of economics.
It's amazing how people suspend all reality just so they can live in a dream world of wealth through debt.
So you think the banking endgame is starting?
It has been a long time since it's been tried. I gotta admit, that would **** me off. It's a tad disruptive.
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