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I really don't consider myself a genius and I consistently do it bear or bull market. It's all about risk management and getting your emotions under control. The actual learning of supper/resistance, moving averages is the easy part.
But, in the bigger picture, not much has really changed in my perspective. I still see us in the 7th inning stretch of a longer-term bull market, which will likely take us to the 3500-4000SPX region by 2022/23 estimated time frame.
But, in the bigger picture, not much has really changed in my perspective. I still see us in the 7th inning stretch of a longer-term bull market, which will likely take us to the 3500-4000SPX region by 2022/23 estimated time frame.
There's always the chance the game ended (ie. top of the market) on 10/3/2018 like it did on 1/18/2000. Clearing the stands 2 minutes after the end of the game (ie. 2% from the top) would be pretty good. Of course, maybe you want to stay after the game and watch the fireworks display they are holding. Well get ready for things to explode!
Quote:
Originally Posted by k374
Don't bull markets die of euphoria? Well, that is not the market sentiment now... everyone I talk to is thinking it's crashing tomorrow, especially after what happened in December.... I don't find that euphoric.
If we had true Euphoria the S&P500 would've been something like 3200+. If we look at where we are we have essentially gone nowhere since January 2018, that's 15 months of zero increase in the S&P500.
In regards to the market going nowhere for the past 15 months, couldn't the same thing have been said in 2000? Of course if you look at the NASDAQ it was falling off a cliff that year while the DOW remained relatively flat, so maybe it's not a fair comparison, but just because the market has traded sideways for multi-months doesn't mean a drop isn't coming (ultimately the DOW bottomed in October 2002 after trading sideways in 2000).
The S&P 500 went nowhere for 23 months from December 2014 to November 2016.
Then it shot 30% higher for more than 1 year.
Yup. I took a look at my 2 IRA accounts for that time period, I keep a spreadsheet with monthly balances) and I had made comments on the side...”holy crap”, “Ouch!” And “ damnit” are there in the 2015/ early 2016 time frame.
Here is a chart of the last two long term bull markets in the DOW:
-The bottom of the red line is the 1990 recession low made on 10/18/1990. The top of the red line is the high made on 1/18/2000. That comes out to 3379 days.
-The bottom of the black line is the 2009 recession low made on 3/6/2009. The top of the black line is the current high made on 10/3/18. That comes out to 3498 days.
it was an awful time for most of us ... i lived it .... the inflationary 70's were killer and made it very hard to save a thing ... it was all well and good that the greatest bull market in history was starting ... most of us normal folks had little money to even invest .
this is why i say don't look at averages and charts .... they mean little because your outcome is going to be determined by what happens when your fuel tanks are the fullest ... 1987 to 2003 saw 17 years of almost 14% returns but if you had little money in back then and then hit the lost decade with the bulk of your money your outcome is very different from those averages
it was an awful time for most of us ... i lived it .... the inflationary 70's were killer and made it very hard to save a thing ... it was all well and good that the greatest bull market in history was starting ... most of us normal folks had little money to even invest .
Yes, but we GenXers have had to deal with a lot of crap too, 2000-2010.. one of the lousiest decades on record, skyrocketing home prices, declining wages even in white collar professions. At least you guys had the 80s/90s bull to compensate, now we're told we are not even having that... so many of us who did not have a lot of capital to take advantage of the 09-17 bull are going to have 2 more lousy decades? At least the forecast if correct seems like we are getting shafted way more than you Boomers.
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