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I'm liking commodities and energy stocks (particularly natural gas). I suppose it's also a good time to by real estate as a long term investment. What are your stratagies and how are they working out for you. I'm up 6.5% on the year.
I'm liking commodities and energy stocks (particularly natural gas).
Are we in a commodities and energy stock bubble? Any comment? My energy stock really went up (one of them jumped three fold recently). I didn’t choose them. My adviser told me I should allocate some money into that sector.
I remember during the housing bubble, everyone told me there was a limited amount of land plus the nice weather in South Florida. House price will go up and up since there will be always a demand. Now crashed, everyone says it is because of overbuilt.
Now everyone blames China for commodities and energy price. There is a short supply and get ready for a higher price. On the other hand, I also read somewhere there is no short supply. I don’t understand. Is it caused by all those super rich investors who influence the markets since there is no where to play their money now? Or it is really a supply and demand issue?
Personally, I wish it is just a bubble. Hopefully, it will burst soon. Any thought?
I'm liking commodities and energy stocks (particularly natural gas). I suppose it's also a good time to by real estate as a long term investment. What are your stratagies and how are they working out for you. I'm up 6.5% on the year.
I don't like commodities at all. Way too volatile. After all, remember when everybody was making money in energy in the late 70s and early 80s? A scant few years later, and the energy biz went through a major bust.
My preference is commercial property in growing markets with stable economies, particularly cities with high occupancy rates. I think distribution properties such as warehouses and distribution centers deserve a special look, even though they are not particularly sexy. Cities such as Atlanta, Birmingham, Charlotte, Orlando, and Richmond are good places to look at, too, given that 60% of the country's growth over the next 15 years will probably take place in the six states of the Southeastern US. As long as you invest through somebody with a solid, long-term record you'll do great.
Are we in a commodities and energy stock bubble? Any comment? My energy stock really went up (one of them jumped three fold recently). I didn’t choose them. My adviser told me I should allocate some money into that sector.
I remember during the housing bubble, everyone told me there was a limited amount of land plus the nice weather in South Florida. House price will go up and up since there will be always a demand. Now crashed, everyone says it is because of overbuilt.
Now everyone blames China for commodities and energy price. There is a short supply and get ready for a higher price. On the other hand, I also read somewhere there is no short supply. I don’t understand. Is it caused by all those super rich investors who influence the markets since there is no where to play their money now? Or it is really a supply and demand issue?
Personally, I wish it is just a bubble. Hopefully, it will burst soon. Any thought?
On Commodities, I would read Jim Rogers, I think he nailed it.
Basically, there was a huge bull market in the 70's. Supplies went up as prices rose. Although supplies take a long time to come on stream (it takes years to find oil, copper, etc). You can't create new commodities the way you can issue new stock or file an IPO. Supply eventually over took demand by the early 80's.
Then during the 80's and 90's, all the supply got worked off. Mines depleted. There was no new productive capacity added (everyone put money into dot coms and stocks).
Then it bottomed by 98/99. Low supply, emerging demand (China, India, Asia, everywhere really). Then back in the same cycle.
I think it'll burst eventually, but it'll take a long time. Commodity cycles tend to last 15-20+ years.
Oil and the others are overextended. Probably the 5th inning of a 9 inning game, but I dont think we're going back to $40 or $60 oil soon. Eventually though, supply will outstrip demand, like condo's in Florida.
I think housing was more artifical. That bubble couldn't be sustained without alot of tricks (easy money, easy loans, lax standards).
There is no other place for the speculators to play..the equities market tanked and the bond market is untrustworthy due to outright fraud.
Sure there is. Commercial real estate never got overbuilt the way residential did.
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