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Old 07-02-2022, 10:07 AM
 
Location: Warwick, RI
4,611 posts, read 5,233,667 times
Reputation: 7347

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Quote:
Originally Posted by treasurekidd View Post
My watch list:

AAPL, BAC, BAM, BRK-B, BROS, BX, COST, DE, DPZ, HD, MA, MSFT, TROW, TXN, V, WSM, and ZTS.

I own many of these already, and I've been adding steadily throughout the last 6 months. - building positions in some and adding to long held positions in others. BROS is a purely speculative pick, but the rest were chosen around quality management, strong balance sheets, dividend growth and strong history of share repurchases criteria.

BAM, COST, MA, MSFT, and ZTS are NOT in the buy zone at the moment. Everything else is and I would be happy owning and holding any of them as long term investments.

Also watching MOO, SMH and XLE ETF's, and a few choice preferred shares as well.
OP, I don't know that you'll be interested in many of my choices, as it seems like you're mainly interested in the big cap tech names that BMW named, but to follow up on what I posted yesterday, here are my target buy prices for all the stocks I follow. Stocks priced in green are currently under the buy target and, to me anyway, can be bought now as long term holdings. Those priced in red are above the price target and not buyable at the moment. If I have an established position, I don't mind adding shares above the buy price target, as long as my overall average cost for the position remains below the target price.


AAPL - $143
BAC - $35
BAM - $40
BRK-B - $290
BROS - $29 ***
BX - $100
COST - $375
DE - $325
DPZ - $343
HD - $299
MA - $233
MSFT - $235
TROW - $140
TXN - $160
V - $187
WSM - $125
ZTS - $146


I have chosen all of these stocks using certain quality metrics such as balance sheet, management, dividend growth and share repurchase history, as well as their business (I stay away from REITS, MLPs, and anything heavily commodity related such as energy, materials, etc.)

I use a DCF calculation that takes earnings and FCF into account to assign each stock a fair value, and then I discount fair value by 20% for most business, and 35% for financials which are a somewhat different animal. The 20% or 35% discount below estimated fair value is my margin of safety, and I feel this gives me the flexibility to both buy when these stocks are below a certain margin of safety but won't also leave me waiting for some absolute rock bottom low that the stock may or may not ever reach. In long term value investing, you can't be afraid to pull the trigger in a down market. Sometimes you have to either go or get off the pot!

*** The one exception on my watch list is BROS, which is strictly a speculative pick, and having bought a very small starter position at higher prices, I decided to set a random $29 buy target price. Value investing tools such as DCF do not work when trying to assign a fair value to a growth company that isn't retaining earnings but rather using them all to grow out the store footprint.

If you have any questions regarding any of the stocks on my watch list, let me know. I'd be glad to discuss my investment thesis on any of them!

Last edited by treasurekidd; 07-02-2022 at 10:37 AM..
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Old 07-02-2022, 03:41 PM
 
2,003 posts, read 1,778,486 times
Reputation: 3651
Quote:
Originally Posted by treasurekidd View Post
OP, I don't know that you'll be interested in many of my choices, as it seems like you're mainly interested in the big cap tech names that BMW named, but to follow up on what I posted yesterday, here are my target buy prices for all the stocks I follow. Stocks priced in green are currently under the buy target and, to me anyway, can be bought now as long term holdings. Those priced in red are above the price target and not buyable at the moment. If I have an established position, I don't mind adding shares above the buy price target, as long as my overall average cost for the position remains below the target price.


AAPL - $143
BAC - $35
BAM - $40
BRK-B - $290
BROS - $29 ***
BX - $100
COST - $375
DE - $325
DPZ - $343
HD - $299
MA - $233
MSFT - $235
TROW - $140
TXN - $160
V - $187
WSM - $125
ZTS - $146


I have chosen all of these stocks using certain quality metrics such as balance sheet, management, dividend growth and share repurchase history, as well as their business (I stay away from REITS, MLPs, and anything heavily commodity related such as energy, materials, etc.)

I use a DCF calculation that takes earnings and FCF into account to assign each stock a fair value, and then I discount fair value by 20% for most business, and 35% for financials which are a somewhat different animal. The 20% or 35% discount below estimated fair value is my margin of safety, and I feel this gives me the flexibility to both buy when these stocks are below a certain margin of safety but won't also leave me waiting for some absolute rock bottom low that the stock may or may not ever reach. In long term value investing, you can't be afraid to pull the trigger in a down market. Sometimes you have to either go or get off the pot!

*** The one exception on my watch list is BROS, which is strictly a speculative pick, and having bought a very small starter position at higher prices, I decided to set a random $29 buy target price. Value investing tools such as DCF do not work when trying to assign a fair value to a growth company that isn't retaining earnings but rather using them all to grow out the store footprint.

If you have any questions regarding any of the stocks on my watch list, let me know. I'd be glad to discuss my investment thesis on any of them!
Thank you for taking the time to post your picks with prices. I am considering adding back some Apple, after selling most of mine at 170, adding to Microsoft, I am currently underwater on that stock, and buying Berkshire Hathaway.
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Old 07-02-2022, 03:47 PM
 
Location: Valley of the Sun
2,561 posts, read 1,945,885 times
Reputation: 2712
Amzn, bros, pypl, aapl, sq, nvda
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Old 07-02-2022, 03:59 PM
 
Location: Warwick, RI
4,611 posts, read 5,233,667 times
Reputation: 7347
Quote:
Originally Posted by organic_donna View Post
Thank you for taking the time to post your picks with prices. I am considering adding back some Apple, after selling most of mine at 170, adding to Microsoft, I am currently underwater on that stock, and buying Berkshire Hathaway.
Three EXCELLENT choices for long term holds. I’ve owned AAPL and BRK-B for years, and have actually been making small adds to both lately. MSFT is an amazing company too, it’s still too expensive though, imho.
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Old 07-02-2022, 05:08 PM
 
Location: Warwick, RI
4,611 posts, read 5,233,667 times
Reputation: 7347
BTW, after a little researching this afternoon, I am adding TSCO and UPS to the watch list. TSCO buy target price is $145, so still overvalued but worth watching. UPS buy target is $195, so I think it's buyable here.
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Old 07-03-2022, 06:15 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
26,258 posts, read 10,063,489 times
Reputation: 22496
Quote:
Originally Posted by treasurekidd View Post
OP, I don't know that you'll be interested in many of my choices, as it seems like you're mainly interested in the big cap tech names that BMW named, but to follow up on what I posted yesterday, here are my target buy prices for all the stocks I follow. Stocks priced in green are currently under the buy target and, to me anyway, can be bought now as long term holdings. Those priced in red are above the price target and not buyable at the moment. If I have an established position, I don't mind adding shares above the buy price target, as long as my overall average cost for the position remains below the target price.


AAPL - $143
BAC - $35
BAM - $40
BRK-B - $290
BROS - $29 ***
BX - $100
COST - $375
DE - $325
DPZ - $343
HD - $299
MA - $233
MSFT - $235
TROW - $140
TXN - $160
V - $187
WSM - $125
ZTS - $146


I have chosen all of these stocks using certain quality metrics such as balance sheet, management, dividend growth and share repurchase history, as well as their business (I stay away from REITS, MLPs, and anything heavily commodity related such as energy, materials, etc.)

I use a DCF calculation that takes earnings and FCF into account to assign each stock a fair value, and then I discount fair value by 20% for most business, and 35% for financials which are a somewhat different animal. The 20% or 35% discount below estimated fair value is my margin of safety, and I feel this gives me the flexibility to both buy when these stocks are below a certain margin of safety but won't also leave me waiting for some absolute rock bottom low that the stock may or may not ever reach. In long term value investing, you can't be afraid to pull the trigger in a down market. Sometimes you have to either go or get off the pot!

*** The one exception on my watch list is BROS, which is strictly a speculative pick, and having bought a very small starter position at higher prices, I decided to set a random $29 buy target price. Value investing tools such as DCF do not work when trying to assign a fair value to a growth company that isn't retaining earnings but rather using them all to grow out the store footprint.

If you have any questions regarding any of the stocks on my watch list, let me know. I'd be glad to discuss my investment thesis on any of them!
Excellent work, TK, I definitely agree on Visa and Apple. Good long term holds.
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Old 07-03-2022, 08:00 AM
 
5,142 posts, read 5,213,998 times
Reputation: 5266
UNP (Union Pacific) but it's still too expensive.
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Old 07-03-2022, 08:14 AM
 
Location: Concord, CA
6,831 posts, read 7,929,684 times
Reputation: 23974
Buy VTI at 120
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Old 07-04-2022, 09:30 AM
 
2,687 posts, read 1,652,928 times
Reputation: 3225
For now I'm concentrating on AMZN. Most of my money is tied up in GFAI, so working with small amounts in my accounts for quick day or swing trades. Own 5 shares of AMZN at a cost basis per share of 109.23.

Morningstar has AMZN as significantly undervalued, with a fair value of 192. Not sure what their 1-star and 5-star mean, but they have 1-star at 297.60 & 5-star at 115.20. They offer a 7-day free trial, I just don't want to sign up right now. Hoping to find a site that gives fair valuation numbers for free. (Not pie in the sky 1-year forecasts.) Morningstar happened to allow me to check one stock w/o signing up so I checked AMZN.
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Old 07-07-2022, 07:02 AM
 
Location: On the west coast of the east coast.
1,202 posts, read 395,535 times
Reputation: 909
Carnival Cruise Lines
Norwegian Cruise Lines
AmBev
Cleveland Cliffs

All of the above are on my daily buy and sell list
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