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Old 06-30-2008, 10:33 AM
 
190 posts, read 810,381 times
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I've been predicting a Dow bottom of 7000 by 2010. That is when I might consider jumping back in. things are bad this go round, very bad and getting worse by the hour.

Unless I am not understanding something here I don't get all the alarm. Didn't the Dow crash to 7000 or so right after 911? And we recovered from that just fine. So if it happens again, won't the PPT and the scavengers jump in and bring it right back up?
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Old 06-30-2008, 11:12 AM
 
Location: Londonderry, NH
41,478 posts, read 55,656,964 times
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I agree with you guess on the bottom value but I do not think it will recover very rapidly, if at all.
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Old 06-30-2008, 02:22 PM
 
20,190 posts, read 22,152,265 times
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Hehehe... Dow Crashes to 7000? I don't think so... I understand the whole logic that the DOW is overinflated but... that's life... I don't think it will correct itself to the bottom amount, heck, I don't think it will even go below 10k.. I believe it will seesaw at this point and jump upwards to 15k by 2010 (that's about double what the predicted level will be)... but we can wait and see... I have been fairly accurate in my predictions... I think a lot of states will be hard hit though.. such as California but I expect the housing market to correct by 2010 as well with large increases in value between 2010 and 2011..
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Old 06-30-2008, 03:46 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 25,199,961 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
Hehehe... Dow Crashes to 7000? I don't think so... I understand the whole logic that the DOW is overinflated but... that's life... I don't think it will correct itself to the bottom amount, heck, I don't think it will even go below 10k.. I believe it will seesaw at this point and jump upwards to 15k by 2010 (that's about double what the predicted level will be)... but we can wait and see... I have been fairly accurate in my predictions... I think a lot of states will be hard hit though.. such as California but I expect the housing market to correct by 2010 as well with large increases in value between 2010 and 2011..
Really? Supported by what fundamentals? Are wages going to double in two years?
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Old 06-30-2008, 05:18 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 16,133,464 times
Reputation: 4621
Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
Hehehe... Dow Crashes to 7000? I don't think so... I understand the whole logic that the DOW is overinflated but... that's life... I don't think it will correct itself to the bottom amount, heck, I don't think it will even go below 10k.. I believe it will seesaw at this point and jump upwards to 15k by 2010 (that's about double what the predicted level will be)... but we can wait and see... I have been fairly accurate in my predictions... I think a lot of states will be hard hit though.. such as California but I expect the housing market to correct by 2010 as well with large increases in value between 2010 and 2011..
I can see this happening if the oil bubble bursts, but $140 oil is like a ton of bricks weighing on the economy. Increase that to $170 or $200 and we'll be looking at a 5000 dow, not 15k.
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Old 06-30-2008, 05:45 PM
 
Location: Fort Myers Fl
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Would be a lot of good deals if Dow hit 7000.
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Old 06-30-2008, 08:30 PM
 
20,190 posts, read 22,152,265 times
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Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
I can see this happening if the oil bubble bursts, but $140 oil is like a ton of bricks weighing on the economy. Increase that to $170 or $200 and we'll be looking at a 5000 dow, not 15k.
Sure petroleum will drag the economy but I think its an "easier" fix then other things. I don't see oil maintaining its overinflated value for long, maybe a month before we see continual decline... unless Israel nukes Iran which would make oil jump up to probably $300 per gallon... If Israel, I think every country should declare war on Israel... that is outright murder in a lot of countries if oil jumps that high, but that's my personal opinion... I don't think Israel is stupid enough to get more people pissed off at it... it doesn't have "that" much money... I think Israel will back off once countries flex their muscles and the oil prices steadily decline...
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Old 07-01-2008, 11:44 AM
 
48,507 posts, read 90,789,739 times
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Unless the world starts using less( the US already has started) then there is not enough excess capacity over demand that will keep driving prices espacially when a interruption can mean a shortage quickly.Many being devloped now like the Petrobra field in Brizil will not come on line until 5 years.
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Old 07-02-2008, 10:41 PM
 
6,351 posts, read 9,375,472 times
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Originally Posted by texdav View Post
Unless the world starts using less( the US already has started) then there is not enough excess capacity over demand that will keep driving prices espacially when a interruption can mean a shortage quickly.Many being devloped now like the Petrobra field in Brizil will not come on line until 5 years.

The recent price jump has nothing to do with supply and demand. The supply is only slightly down, with less oil coming out of Nigeria, and demand is the same if not lower, with China doing away with fuel subsidies and the price their going up 20% over night. This is just a bunch of people deciding the price should go up...
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Old 07-03-2008, 11:36 AM
 
Location: Ohio
23,184 posts, read 16,660,481 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
Unless the world starts using less( the US already has started) then there is not enough excess capacity over demand that will keep driving prices espacially when a interruption can mean a shortage quickly.Many being devloped now like the Petrobra field in Brizil will not come on line until 5 years.
Petrobas says 2014 and at that point they be pumping a whopping 100,000 barrels per day, which is unfortunate, because by 2014, oil production will have declined much more than 100,000 barrels per day, so it will have ZERO impact.
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