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Old 07-13-2008, 10:54 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,045,063 times
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Oil: Above $155 but below $160 by Friday
Dollar: approximately $1.65 vs. the Euro by Friday. $1.70 is possible depending on how Freddie and Fannie plays out.
Dow: Above 10,000 but below 10,500.
Gas: $4.25/gal nationwide average.
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Old 07-13-2008, 11:06 PM
 
42 posts, read 170,043 times
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what
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Old 07-14-2008, 01:01 AM
 
655 posts, read 731,938 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
Oil: Above $155 but below $160 by Friday
Dollar: approximately $1.65 vs. the Euro by Friday. $1.70 is possible depending on how Freddie and Fannie plays out.
Dow: Above 10,000 but below 10,500.
Gas: $4.25/gal nationwide average.
My prediction:

Lots of money will be made and lots of money will be lost, all depeding on how you play the game.

I think the DOW will spike a little due to the feds promise to keep Freddy Fanny alfloat, this until they realize their dollar was just devalued some 15% more. Then the dive to 10,000 will be on.
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Old 07-14-2008, 08:22 AM
 
Location: Texas
4,933 posts, read 6,797,440 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
Oil: Above $155 but below $160 by Friday
Dollar: approximately $1.65 vs. the Euro by Friday. $1.70 is possible depending on how Freddie and Fannie plays out.
Dow: Above 10,000 but below 10,500.
Gas: $4.25/gal nationwide average.
Even the most die hard doom and gloomer would take that bet that you are totally off base. America's fall will drag out much slower than this. In fact, I'm betting on a rally. We'll see 11,800 before 10,500 on the dow. It'll be a great opportunity to start shorting again.
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Old 07-14-2008, 12:25 PM
 
2,197 posts, read 6,719,180 times
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I think we're going to go up a little, then down more, then up a little less, then down even more; in other words, lower highs and lower lows. I bet we do get to Dow 10K, but it'll take us months, so there's less panic just little losses that add up slowly. It's like working a band-aid, instead of ripping it off. I'd much rather have the market take a couple of steep plunges, shake out the excess then start to rebuild. If we break Dow 10K, I think it will trigger widespread selling. Dow 10K is a psychological breaking point, and everybody will be selling like mad if it's breached. Personally, I think we have a 50/50 shot of that happening.

I'm not a trader, so I'm out of stocks... after taking some big hits on companies my former broker called "safe bets." I don't think the risk of being long is worth the potential return near-term. If I were to trade, I'd be shorting strategically. I don't see how some banks can be saved. The Fed can't prop up everybody, so some of those with the most exposure are going to go under. I think we'll see two or three big failures in the next 3-6 months. There will be mergers and a new financial landscape will emerge.

I can't time the market, so I'm preserving capital. I won't get rich, but I'm just hoping to not get poor.
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Old 07-16-2008, 09:30 AM
 
Location: Texas
4,933 posts, read 6,797,440 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
Oil: Above $155 but below $160 by Friday
Dollar: approximately $1.65 vs. the Euro by Friday. $1.70 is possible depending on how Freddie and Fannie plays out.
Dow: Above 10,000 but below 10,500.
Gas: $4.25/gal nationwide average.
The week isn't over yet, but how does that crow taste? The fake rally is here and commodities are going to get hammered over the next couple of weeks (depending on Citi banks earnings report). I say short oil for the next couple of weeks (risky, but if nothing major happens in the mideast, it will come down to $120), and add to your long positions in commodities as they pull back.
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Old 07-16-2008, 10:37 AM
 
17,784 posts, read 19,805,586 times
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Yeah, I think that is really, really extreme... I think we have a lot of months to go before it reaches those levels... not by the end of the week as you proposed which is in 2 days.. I don't think so...
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:29 PM
 
Location: Texas
4,933 posts, read 6,797,440 times
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SKF got hammered. Down 22% baby. I love to see it. I can't wait to buy back in when it goes below $100 a share. I'm going to be in such great position when the market takes it's next leg down. Ignore the noise and happy faced goldylox people. We are in bear market baby. Buy commodities as they correct. If gold goes below $900, you better make that trade. I love it. All of these suckers are going to push the markets back up, bringing in the perfect opportunity to capitalize on their stupidity.
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:46 PM
 
655 posts, read 731,938 times
Reputation: 240
My shares of NFG got whacked the past 3-days. Down about $4 over two sessions. Natural gas was not even affected by the huge dip in oil, but the weight of the overall enery market brought it down, with no justification. This stock has about the most stable finacials you can find in this market. No reason for the sell-off. I'll be adding more.

I think today was a bear trap, overall, but do agree, some of the bank stocks are a bargain if you have long term goals in mind.
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Texas
4,933 posts, read 6,797,440 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travelmate38 View Post
My shares of NFG got whacked the past 3-days. Down about $4 over two sessions. Natural gas was not even affected by the huge dip in oil, but the weight of the overall enery market brought it down, with no justification. This stock has about the most stable finacials you can find in this market. No reason for the sell-off. I'll be adding more.

I think today was a bear trap, overall, but do agree, some of the bank stocks are a bargain if you have long term goals in mind.
I suspect we'll give up some of the gains tomorrow, but if Citi reports better than expected earnings (or less write downs than expected), we are off to 11,800-12,000 over the next couple of months. Remember, when trading, always be contrary to the masses. When investing, stick with the macroeconomic fundamentals. It's an easy game. Just ignore the noise.
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