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And it was 4000 in 1995..... It looks like a "bottom signal" to you because you appear to be ignoring the graphs before 2000.
Not at all ... there's actually a lot of great comparisons over that time period. When Clinton was elected in 1992 due to another nasty recession ...
The Dow tripled in value ... about 3200 in late 1992 to over 10,000 in 2000. Of course, after that we had Bush, the internet bubble bursting and 9-11 but ...
There was a terrific market run after Clinton was elected. I think the same will happen with Obama.
i would be good if you could back up your predictions. what do you think will pull us up? apart from cheerleading!
I think the bailout is working to the extent that credit is loosening. While prices aren't up ... the number of actual home sales are up so obviously people are qualifying ... another stabilization signal.
Yeah Citibank is laying off 50K people but, that also means they and other financials will turn the corner in the next quarter or so. By then housing will start to look better also.
Another key factor: gas prices are way down which will help both the consumer and business. We no longer have the sky high crushing fuel prices we had just three months ago, which definitely contributed to this recession.
The market is all about what's going to happen six months from now so ... I'm betting the picture will look pretty good by spring.
When you can buy Ford or GM for under $3 Im thinking there are some great buys out there. But the same is true of real estate as well. the good thing about RE is if you buy it right there is no drop to endure.
. By then housing will start to look better also..
I disagree 100%. The nation will still have a wave of negative news deep into '09. Theres no other way around it w/the record amounts of inventory and the mass # of foreclosures about to happen. No way by 6 months.....9-12 maybe....
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257
. The market is all about what's going to happen six months from now so ... I'm betting the picture will look pretty good by spring.
I agree w/you about the market pricing in the next couple of months, but I'm nowhere near as rosy as you are due to obv reasons w/the housing industry.
I disagree 100%. The nation will still have a wave of negative news deep into '09. Theres no other way around it w/the record amounts of inventory and the mass # of foreclosures about to happen. No way by 6 months.....9-12 maybe....
I agree w/you about the market pricing in the next couple of months, but I'm nowhere near as rosy as you are due to obv reasons w/the housing industry.
I'm not looking for a full housing recovery because I don't think Wall Street looks for that either. What Wall Street looks for is .... when is the worst over and when it will turn.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257
...
There was a terrific market run after Clinton was elected. I think the same will happen with Obama.
This would be a very weak measure by which to judge equity markets. I hope you're right, but I would consider it a 'guess' or 'wishful thinking'. The fundamentals of the world economy are not positive, and Obama is not in a position to ride on any existing or presumed advances in the economy. In fact, he is in a very weak position (from a world perspective) and US industry, housing, and spending is anemic. Unfortunately this is playing out poorly with his recent executive position announcements. It looks a whole lot more like political posturing as opposed to wise economic strategy (or CHANGE). Even NPR is calling it "Clinton's 3rd term". That is not good for global credibility. It was not Clinton (nor his pundits) who were responsible for the economic growth during his term. There were fundamentals to support this, a blossoming world economic growth curve, purchasing Americans, and a popular Fed chairman that had something to work with besides ashes. (and his policies helped 'build the growth' as well as assure it's collapse).
I hope I am wrong in thinking we are in for a prolonged 're-adjustment', but I don't think the markets have found the bottom, and I don't think we will have a clue where that may be for a couple years. It is going to take some time to re-charge the economy, as we (the markets) haven't really digested the recent and current impact. The future impact is really a guess at this point.
I'm not looking for a full housing recovery because I don't think Wall Street looks for that either. What Wall Street looks for is .... when is the worst over and when it will turn.
I think we're pretty much already there.
Based on what???
Prices are still above historicals throughout most of the country
We still have a RECORD amount of inventory (ie houses) that are sitting
Its probably the toughest time in 30 years for potential homeowners to obtain credit.
There will be no recovery until there is a major dent in the glut of homes out there.
I could understand the rosy attitude if you were a realtor or a member of the NAR, but anyone objective would know this. What are you basing your opinion on?
Part of investing is understanding human psychology. The underlying theme of investing (and all human life for that matter) is that humans have a bias towards optimism. It's a psychological make-up that gives a survival advantage to the optimists. People who are optimistic plan for the future. They also are open to having children. More children means more consumers; more consumers means more economic activity. More economic activity means more profits, and more profits means higher stock prices.
People who are pessimistic tend to not produce (goods and services) and reproduce. If they are clinically depressed, they may commit suicide....and are eliminated from the gene pool. Present day humans are survivors of a long line of ancestors who must have been optimistic enough in their lifetimes to reproduce. If our ancestors had been pessimists, they wouldn't have reproduced, and we wouldn't be here today. It stands to reason that we inherited their genes for optimism.
I believe human psychology is biased towards optimism and hence bullishness. This bodes well for stock prices going higher. This optimism may be ill-founded; an asteroid may hit earth tomorrow. Still, you are fighting an uphill battle against human nature if you believe markets and economies will be depressed forever.
I could understand the rosy attitude if you were a realtor or a member of the NAR, but anyone objective would know this. What are you basing your opinion on?
I'm largely basing it on California since this market has been hardest hit but I figure it's a pretty good indicator ...
Home sales are up again in October, like they were in September.
Sure ... prices dropped some more but, that won't last long. What signalled the bust was the drop in sales, even though prices kept rising for awhile.
I think we're seeing the same, but reverse indicator here. Sales are up and prices will eventually follow.
Last edited by sheri257; 11-18-2008 at 11:51 AM..
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). Even NPR is calling it "Clinton's 3rd term". That is not good for global credibility. It was not Clinton (nor his pundits) who were responsible for the economic growth during his term. There were fundamentals to support this, a blossoming world economic growth curve, purchasing Americans, and a popular Fed chairman that had something to work with besides ashes. (and his policies helped 'build the growth' as well as assure it's collapse).
