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It's well of its highs and is trending back down. Was this the last rally for a doomed currency? Is it on its way to the abyss? To be safe, I'd consider commodities that are on sale today, particularly agriculture and oil. Owning physical PM's might be a good route to go as well. I've been buying them on dips.
The US dollar is unlikely to collapse, why would it? Everyone is in the same position as the US, some in worse positions some in better positions. The "dollar is going to collapse" argument used last year was based on decoupling theories which were obviously false (well...they were obviously false then too).
Anyhow, everything is likely to remain volatile. The system needs to bleed the pseudo wealth, its only after this occurs that people will actually become productive again.
But so long as people are talking about "buying on the dips" blah blah, there is still a lot of more blood to extract.
It's not useful to engage in a "collapse" discussion unless one defines it in measurable terms, such as a certain exchange rate level or as the actual scrapping of a currency and the introduction of a new one.
Versus the EUR, the USD did not improve much past 1.25, which I believe is significant. If the EUR rallies past 1.36, that would also be significant. So far the current EUR rally has stalled around 1.3380.
It would be great if it traded in a predictable range, say 1.25 to 1.34, but I too am not in the business of making such predictions and I too observe that Europe, Japan, and the US, for instance, share common problems both internally and vis-a-vis the rest of the world, and exchange rate adjustments are just one part of the constant rebalancing process, right now going through a highly volatile period.
Having said that, it is a good idea to remain diversified, including currency and commodities, and be in a position to trade.
The USD isn't going to collapse if everyone keeps saying (and betting) that it'll collapse.
Wouldn't be suprised if it rallies up to 95 or 100, given the huge decline since 2001 and the mass volatility of this market. Maybe go back over a 100?
But in 5, 10 years, it'll be lower. Down to 60, 50, 40?
Any opinions on the yen, fxy? Too late to buy?
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