Your top value stock picks (mine are included) (calls, dividends, purchase)

[first one]

Originally Posted by motoman

I read your post and I don't see how you could have made any rational decision to purchase any of these companies. Cash levels, P/Es, market caps, mean nothing without knowing the fundamentals of the businesses, performing a SWOT analysis on the business and the industry, and then coming up with a long-term discounted cash flow model to determine the estimated intrinsic value of the business.

What you are doing is nothing more than speculating based on short-term metrics driven by irrationality.

motoman, these are just the basic numbers provided for a quick reference. I've done much, much more analysis than just looking at these numbers before deciding on these stocks. My idea here is just to provide a starting point and document picks, not to show the whole process (though of course if someone wants to do it, they are welcome).

Current results as of 4/9/2009 since my last post: +26.4% as compared to +17.5% for the total stock market index, for an outperformance of 8.9%.

Totals since my first post: +11.0% for my portfolio vs. -1.2% for the total stock market, for an outperformance of 12.2%.

Number of stocks held at a time: at least 13.

[ndfmnlf]

I bought VBR (the Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF) 3 weeks ago when my annual SEP IRA contribution became available to be deployed. Just my luck, I went in just before the huge run up. Needless to say, I'm quite pleased with the double digit gains the ETF has achieved in just a few weeks.

VBR was sporting a price-to-book value ratio of 0.8 when I bought it. That's dirt cheap. If the companies making up the VBR had liquidated all their assets, I was buying them at a 20% discount.

[pghquest]

Originally Posted by first one

motoman, these are just the basic numbers provided for a quick reference. I've done much, much more analysis than just looking at these numbers before deciding on these stocks. My idea here is just to provide a starting point and document picks, not to show the whole process (though of course if someone wants to do it, they are welcome).

Current results as of 4/9/2009 since my last post: +26.4% as compared to +17.5% for the total stock market index, for an outperformance of 8.9%.

Totals since my first post: +11.0% for my portfolio vs. -1.2% for the total stock market, for an outperformance of 12.2%.

Number of stocks held at a time: at least 13.

I'm up 95% in 4 weeks.. I'd credit most of that just due to luck though..

[thebigr]

Originally Posted by first one

Here is the thread to post your value stock picks and your reasons for owning them. I will revisit this thread in the future to evaluate how my picks have performed compared to the market (assuming equal weighings).
Disclosure: I own these stocks. Do your own research. I intend to sell them if there are signficant news affecting their business prospects or if their price goes up significantly and I won't necessarily inform you about it. Those are not stocks for traders - I expect to hold them for long term.

Here are my picks and their Yahoo! Finance stats as of Dec 15, 2008.
My value stock picks all have positive earnings, low trailing or forward P/E, low debt compared to cash, and their businesses and industries are not declining, based on their history of earnings and revenues. I considered other fundamental data, such as the value of their assets. Many of them had huge declines in stock price this year. Basically, I believe that they are currently cheaper than they should be. It doesn't mean that the market will agree with me, but with the proper diversification, I believe that they should outperform the market. A couple of them have additional risks of being foreign based and some are pretty thinly traded. However, since many report a lot of cash and low debt compared to their market caps and positive earnings, I think they should be actually less risky than other random stocks with similar market cap/industry characteristics. I also think that these companies could be attractive takeover targets.

Ceradyne Inc. (CRDN) - Trailing P/E 5.4, Estimated forward P/E 7.8. $212M in cash vs. $121M in debt. Market cap of $632M. Stock price: $24.05

Mitcham Industries Inc. (MIND) - Trailing P/E 3.4, Estimated forward P/E 4.1. $5.8M in cash vs. $8.4M in debt. Market cap of $39M. Stock price: $4.00

Patni Computer Systems Ltd. (PTI) - Trailing P/E 4.1, Estimated forward P/E 5.2. $37.5M in cash vs. $0.4M in debt. Market cap of $395M. Stock price: $5.82

MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. (WFR) - Trailing P/E 5.3, Estimated forward P/E 5.0. $1120M in cash vs. $30M in debt. Market cap of $3490M. Stock price: $15.44

Perini Corp. (PCR) - Trailing P/E 5.6, Estimated forward P/E 7.2. $409M in cash vs. $70M in debt. Market cap of $1070M. Stock price: $21.27

Telemig Celular Participacoes S.A. (TMB) - Trailing P/E 5.7, Estimated forward P/E 4.5. $405M in cash vs. $76M in debt. Market cap of $567M. Stock price: $31.31

American Oriental Bioengineering Inc. (AOB) - Trailing P/E 8.6, Estimated forward P/E 6.5. $220M in cash vs. $126M in debt. Market cap of $473M. Stock price: $6.04

Celestica Inc. (CLS) - Trailing P/E 12.5, Estimated forward P/E 7.8. $1260M in cash vs. $761M in debt. Market cap of $1120M. Stock price: $4.90

Novatel Wireless Inc. (NVTL) - Trailing P/E 7.5, Estimated forward P/E N/A (losses are expected). $137M in cash vs. $0.5M in debt. Market cap of $87M. Stock price: $3.11

GP Strategies Corp. (GPX) - Trailing P/E 6.6, Estimated forward P/E 5.5. $4M in cash vs. $8M in debt. Market cap of $73M. Stock price: $4.50

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico S.A.B. de CV (PAC) - Trailing P/E 9.3, Estimated forward P/E 12.2. $136M in cash vs. $62M in debt. Market cap of $1160M. Stock price: $20.73

Silicon Motion Technology Corp. (SIMO) - Trailing P/E 3.5, Estimated forward P/E 3.4. $58M in cash vs. $3M in debt. Market cap of $92M. Stock price: $3.00

My other pick:
Answers Corp. (ANSW) - Trailing P/E N/A (losses), Estimated forward P/E 10.8. $9M in cash vs. $0.2M in debt. Market cap of $40M. Stock price: $5.07.
The reason for this pick is that answers.com is a very popular and growing website and their market cap doesn't reflect this compared to other Internet content companies with mostly user-generated content.

Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Ind (^DJUS) is at 212.79.

If you disagree and you think they are bad picks, I'd also like to hear about your reasons why.

I find it so much easier to just be a trader. Look at all the work you had to go through and a stock can dump on simply a rumor. I just run daily scans, find what catches my eye and trade according to what a handful of indicators tell me on the chart. I watch the S & P 500 and trade right along side it. I get nervous holding an equity over the weekend. But I did hold onto MGM and INTC over the holidays. I just have good feelings about them, we will see on monday. There I go, using emotions, breaking a strict rule of mine. But good luck anyway.

[jkwing]

OK, here is the deal, I went to a 'Get Motivated" seminar here is Columbia SC, Heard a speaker " Phil Town". Talks about his program "investools" I signed up for his 2 day class. I am wanting to start some kind of investing in the market. I will start with $500.00 and see what he can teach me to build that to at least a 25% return in a short period of time. Anyone out there have any experience with "investools" or Phil Town or can you give a newbie some advise on how to make this work

[Oildog]

Originally Posted by jkwing

OK, here is the deal, I went to a 'Get Motivated" seminar here is Columbia SC, Heard a speaker " Phil Town". Talks about his program "investools" I signed up for his 2 day class. I am wanting to start some kind of investing in the market. I will start with $500.00 and see what he can teach me to build that to at least a 25% return in a short period of time. Anyone out there have any experience with "investools" or Phil Town or can you give a newbie some advise on how to make this work

Im leery of such services. I'd read some books (Buffett, Investors Business Daily guide etc) and check websites like Motley fool and Bloomberg for info.

[Oildog]

Originally Posted by pghquest

I'm up 95% in 4 weeks.. I'd credit most of that just due to luck though..

Hasn't been a bad month at all Luck is kind of an offshoot of the opportunity you prepared for!

[first one]

To update, I sold CLS, PCR, and AOB and bought ITWO, NSTC, JEC, FRX, ANR, and DAR.
My current stocks portfolio is now: CRDN, PTI, WFR, TMB, NVTL, GPX, SIMO, ANSW, NCR, EBAY, MOH, NOV, EME, FWLT, GES, ITWO, NSTC, JEC, FRX, ANR, DAR.

Since my first post on 12/15/2008, my portfolio as tracked here is up 27.3% vs. +7.0% for the total stock market for an outperformance of 20.3%. Number of stocks held at a time: at least 13.

[Jaggy001]

Originally Posted by Jaggy001

Hartford Financial Services (HIG). Current price $7.60. Book value per share $30. Analysts are giving it a target of around $23.

Rodmann Renshaw (RODM). Current price 37 cents. Book value per share is 67 cents. Insiders are buying. Fairly high risk but not hard to see a 50% - 100% gain for the brave.

Gamestop (GME). Good company but pulled down by the state of retail in general. 52 week high of $59 and right now trading at around $24. Owns the video game space in malls all around the country.

AK Steel (AKS). 52 week high $73. Right now about a dollar above the 52 week low at $6.24. Possible takeover target. Only place to go is up.

RODM is now at 49c
GME is now at around $28.89
AKS is up at $14.53
HIG is up at $13.73

I sold AKS today to realize profits on that and I am going into DRYS which is trading at around $10 and I am selling a June $10 call for around $1.60. I expect to get called out of HIG next week and will realize further profits there. I may go back into HIG depending on what the stock price does. So far my realized profits this year are at around 11% of capital employed.

[JL]

I'm looking at HD, BID, EXM, TIE