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Old 01-19-2019, 10:32 PM
 
Location: Tupelo, Ms
784 posts, read 507,942 times
Reputation: 464

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Quote:
Originally Posted by brickpatio2018 View Post
These data show that Jackson policing has vacillated between average and terrible, by going from 40 to 80 homicides and in between. If Jackson policing were performing at the level of New York policing, Jackson would drop to just 10 homicides per year.

From what I've read about New York, they did a couple of big things. They divided the city into subsections, with one officer in charge of each section and held accountable for results. They created daily processes to analyze the successes and failures in each area and adjusted their tactics accordingly.

Secondly, the police became extremely pro-active, enforcing all the laws large and small, under the theory that criminals won't bother to try big crimes if they can't even get away with small crimes. Also they began pro-actively checking people who fit the usual criminal characteristics, thereby catching those who were evading warrants, carrying weapons, etc. By placing them in jail for smaller offenses, the criminals weren't in the community and thus unable to commit homicides and other larger offenses in the community.

Governor Phil Bryant could save the city simply by taking over parts of the Jackson city government that aren't working (police, water, roads) and making life better for everyone. Jackson is not just another small town in Mississippi. It's the capital, the largest city, and home to the state's major institutions such as state government, major hospitals, universities, etc. He cannot sit by while Mississippi's capital turns into another El Salvador or Guatemala with literally the highest homicide rate on the planet.
That's not guarantee. It won't be another El Salvador nor Guatemala. That's exxageration.
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Old 01-20-2019, 05:03 AM
 
28 posts, read 7,528 times
Reputation: 87
So far in 2019 Jackson averaging 5 homicides per week, which by the end of the year will be 250 homicides.

That comes to a homicide rate of about 140 homicides per 100,000 people. The most dangerous cities on earth (e.g. in Mexico, Brazil, El Salvador) average only about 100 homicides per 100,000 people.

So yes, at the moment on a per capita basis, Jackson is indeed the most violent city on earth. With the stroke of a pen, Governor Phil Bryant could take over the city of Jackson's police, adopt New York-style policing strategies, and reduce Jackson's homicides down to about 1 per month (i.e. around the same rates currently seen in New York City). It can be done.
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Old 01-20-2019, 02:27 PM
 
Location: Tupelo, Ms
784 posts, read 507,942 times
Reputation: 464
Quote:
Originally Posted by brickpatio2018 View Post
So far in 2019 Jackson averaging 5 homicides per week, which by the end of the year will be 250 homicides.

That comes to a homicide rate of about 140 homicides per 100,000 people. The most dangerous cities on earth (e.g. in Mexico, Brazil, El Salvador) average only about 100 homicides per 100,000 people.

So yes, at the moment on a per capita basis, Jackson is indeed the most violent city on earth. With the stroke of a pen, Governor Phil Bryant could take over the city of Jackson's police, adopt New York-style policing strategies, and reduce Jackson's homicides down to about 1 per month (i.e. around the same rates currently seen in New York City). It can be done.
That's an incorrect assessment. On average the city have roughly 5 a month not a week. The past week was an unprecedented event to have 4 in 1 day. There wasn't that many the previous week before therefore it can't equate to an average. Like last year, people was expecting Jackson to hit 100 or more homicides via per capita trends. It was proven false.

Again, you shouldn't compare it to foreign cities with a complete different political/social/crime strata. To recite the FBI per se there's different factors at play for every city. I've already spoken on the NYC style approach.

People shouldn't use homicides rate as a primary measure of a city's safety when it's only a minor fraction of crimes. If anybody paid attention to the crime trend of Jackson over a long period than you'll get a better understanding of it.
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Old 01-20-2019, 06:03 PM
 
Location: Tupelo, Ms
784 posts, read 507,942 times
Reputation: 464
Correction: Jackson, MS - 10 thus far.
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Old 01-20-2019, 11:15 PM
 
620 posts, read 595,764 times
Reputation: 611
I think comparing Jackson to Guatemala or Mexico is asinine.
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Old 01-21-2019, 11:22 PM
 
28 posts, read 7,528 times
Reputation: 87
The homicide rates in both Guatemala and Mexico, nationally, are 25 homicides per 100,000 people. Jackson's homicide rate in 2018 was almost 50 homicides per 100,000. So far in 2019 Jackson's rate is almost 150 per 100,000 people, annualized.

So you're right. It's asinine to compare those places to Jackson since Jackson's homicide rate is at least twice as high or worse.

I love Jackson; I don't know why you guys are minimizing the homicide problem, especially when the homicide rate could be as low as 1 per month if the city and state managed policing in Jackson as effectively as evidently has occurred in New York. Just saying.
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Old 01-22-2019, 12:14 AM
 
Location: Tupelo, Ms
784 posts, read 507,942 times
Reputation: 464
Quote:
Originally Posted by brickpatio2018 View Post
The homicide rates in both Guatemala and Mexico, nationally, are 25 homicides per 100,000 people. Jackson's homicide rate in 2018 was almost 50 homicides per 100,000. So far in 2019 Jackson's rate is almost 150 per 100,000 people, annualized.

So you're right. It's asinine to compare those places to Jackson since Jackson's homicide rate is at least twice as high or worse.

I love Jackson; I don't know why you guys are minimizing the homicide problem, especially when the homicide rate could be as low as 1 per month if the city and state managed policing in Jackson as effectively as evidently has occurred in New York. Just saying.
Because you're reaching a conclusive theory base on a 1 year analysis. I stated the long term trend of homicides of Jackson and even back in 2018 posters based the outcome on the per capita which they was proven wrong. You have to pay attention to monthly trends accurately and that's not possible when it's still the 1st month of the year.

I'm not trying to minimize the homicide rate but I'm not going extrapolate the circumstances out of proportion. Anyone that review the homicide rate history thoroughly will notice the pattern. Just saying.
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Old 01-22-2019, 01:08 AM
 
28 posts, read 7,528 times
Reputation: 87
Gotcha, thank you for explaining. You're clearly right that 2018 was even worse than most previous years. And though the first couple of weeks of 2019 were far worse than even 2018, indeed two weeks does not make a trend. I will cede those points to you entirely.

My point is that even in relatively average years in Jackson (e.g. 50 to 60 homicides), that is a total disaster. We should expect so much better.

In metropolitan Tokyo, with 38 million people, they have about the same number of homicides as Jackson with its 180,000 people. That means that Jackson's murder rate is something like 300 times that of Tokyo, per capita. But Japan is the safest country on the planet so, if we're looking for a better target to emulate, let's use New York as a more reasonable point of comparison.

If New York can quickly drop from 2,000 annual homicides to around 280 per year, then Jackson can do the same, which would mean dropping from 50 or 80 per year to maybe say 12 per year, or one per month.

It's also worth noting that in New York about 55% of homicide victims are African-American and tragically about 75% of victims of gun shootings are African-American, though the city is just under 25% African-American in population. So in New York African-Americans' safety has improved in amazing way as homicides and shootings of African-Americans have been reduced by some 80% or more.

And Jackson, where over 90% of homicide and shooting victims are African-American, we should be demanding that the mayor and governor take action and get results, for all. Jackson may never be another Tokyo, but it can reach the success seen in New York. There is no need for Mississippi's capital city to have homicide rates equal to or double those of yes sadly, Mexico and Guatemala. We know this problem can be solved; I say let's demand that they do so for all our sakes.
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Old 01-22-2019, 08:45 AM
 
Location: Jack-town, Sip by way of AL and FL
828 posts, read 484,136 times
Reputation: 1221
Shariff and and brickpatio - geez. Neither of you guys understand urban and rural areas or per capita statistics. I could not sit by idly and allow it to continue.

Shariff - duh.....of course urban areas will increase the "volume" of homicides more than rural areas....THEY ARE URBAN...THUS MORE PEOPLE IN A SMALLER AREA.

and Brickpatio....this is also why you can't compare Jackson to South American countries (as a whole). Pick a city in Mexico and compare that, but you can't compare Jackson to the whole of freaking Mexico. That is idiotic.

Get the facts right, guys.
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Old 01-22-2019, 09:13 AM
 
620 posts, read 595,764 times
Reputation: 611
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mississippi Alabama Line View Post
Shariff and and brickpatio - geez. Neither of you guys understand urban and rural areas or per capita statistics. I could not sit by idly and allow it to continue.

Shariff - duh.....of course urban areas will increase the "volume" of homicides more than rural areas....THEY ARE URBAN...THUS MORE PEOPLE IN A SMALLER AREA.

and Brickpatio....this is also why you can't compare Jackson to South American countries (as a whole). Pick a city in Mexico and compare that, but you can't compare Jackson to the whole of freaking Mexico. That is idiotic.

Get the facts right, guys.
Bingo
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