Mass Transit Crystal Ball (Jacksonville, University: insurance, how much, homes)

[Ocklawaha]

Okay, by now, some of you have figured out that I'm somehow connected to the future of Mass Transit in Jacksonville. Correct. A few have asked me to post what I see in the Crystal Ball...



Bus Rapid Transit: What JTA is calling the Rapid Transit System, is going to be neither, Rapid or a Transit System. It will be built, but nothing like what they have envisioned, IE: elevated bus freeways over railroads and Interstates. The only part I see really getting off the ground (pun intended) is Arlington Expressway, but even this segment will more likely follow the service roads rather then the crazy expensive elevated busway they think they need. BRT has it's place in our transit picture, but BRT or Bus Rapid Transit, for all their advertising and promotion is NOT "Just like Rail only Cheaper". Some of the reality checks they'll encounter are:

• A mile of highway is MUCH more expensive to build then a mile of railroad.
• A single track railroad with passing sidings has the same Passenger-Per-Hour capacity as a 10 lane freeway.
• Paint it, change it, hide the wheels, call it Rapid Transit, whatever you do it still carries the old bus stigma.
• Fixed route transit carries many times the riders of flexible transit, since buses can enter and exit the busway it is flexible, ridership will suffer.
• Developers will not beat a path to anything that can be moved on a 7 day notice, nationwide BRT accounts for only 8% of all Transit Oriented Developments.
• BRT through the heart of downtown is DEAD.

But BRT has a place in Jacksonville, we will see a scaled down model of the route plans, perhaps BRT in new HOV lanes. This will give us much needed extra lanes in off hours and much higher Passenger-Per-Hour capacity with large articulated buses in rush hours. Rather then being the Trunk or Mainline of our "Regional Transportation System" BRT will become a vital and live feeder on routes such as Lem Turner, MLK, Arlington Expressway, JTB and Blanding. Some of this within 5 years.



Commuter Rail: This animal is REALLY any rail vehicle that carries people in the rush hours. But thought of in the traditional sense, It's well on it's way to Jacksonville. We could see locomotive hauled trains or some form of DMU (Diesel Multiple Unit) or RDC (Rail Diesel Car) serving the Southwest route to Edgewood, Roosevelt, NAS, Orange Park, Doctors Lake/Flemming Island, Green Cove Springs. This within 10 years. Also look for the FEC route to St. Augustine, via San Marco, University, Avenues, Nocatee.



Hybrid Rail: Maybe Commuter Rail or Maybe some form of electric Light Rail watch for the rebuilding of the old "S" line in the Northside. This old Seaboard route twists from Union Terminal - Shands Hospital - Swisher - Gateway Mall. Also a possible run from Swisher (junction) north to Busch - Airport - Yulee and Fernandina Beach.



Downtown Trolleys: Watch for these little used rough vehicles to become real flesh and blood STREETCARS with steel wheels on steel track. Watch the ridership soar and the tourists discover the magic of our beautiful downtown. Any "Trolley" route they add today, will be built with the real-thing in mind. Downtown will go electric.



Monorail: To the current administration, the Skyway is a no-mans land of political minefields. Those old enough to remember my first fight in the City will recall it would carry 56,000 people daily, then as it went up, 30,000, then 18,000, then 10,000... We finally topped out at 3,000 a number we had just reached after nearly 30 years when JTA raised the fare and now we're back to 1,500 daily. This creation was NEVER finished, and not a single proposed end Terminal was ever built. Somewhere in the future, as more and more cities are using short monorails for downtown distribution, costs per mile are WAY down. Some can give us a fix for as little as 10-25 Million a mile. A simple addition of the following would, in my mind, fix the system:

• From Bay and Hogan - to Bay and Randolph - up Randolph to Expressway total length 14,063 feet.
• From Kings Avenue Station - South along and over the FEC Railway to Atlantic in San Marco, total length 5,252 feet.
• From Brooklyn at Times-Union - South along Riverside to area of Blue Cross, perhaps with a western jog over toward Francis Lytle School as a transit center, total length 9,057 feet.
• From current Prime Osbourne Station, West and hence South to loop around the building and come up alongside the Commuter Rail platforms. Total length 3,258 feet.
• 6 miles total, for a "complete" system, with cost ranging from $30 Million to $75 Million local money, with matching federal grants.

Transportation Center? The old Union Terminal or "Prime Osbourne Convention Center" is about to re-re-incarnate back to Rail and transit. Look for dirt within 2 years. Public hearings (your all invited) at FDOT office on Jan 10, 2008, at 2198 Edison Ave, 4-6 PM.

Amtrak: Finally gets complete funding and priority ONE is extending the high speed Northeast Corridor to JACKSONVILLE. Watch for this to happen as soon as the dust settles on the funding fights. CSX has already applied for the grants to TRIPLE TRACK the mainline. Are electrics next? The sky is the limit. Moving back into Union Terminal, watch for the current station to be converted into something useful, Public urinals? Institute of Stupid transportation planning? More likely, an office for another freight line or trucking firm.

Ocklawaha

[Since 1972]

Six more miles of Monorail? Pffft. Fuggetaboutit. The only way I see to make these systems actually work is to build a gazillion miles of rail criss crossing each and every neighborhood and connecting everybody to everything. Until that happens, it'll benefit too few people to be worthwhile.

We need to be able to go to and from Jax International Airport from our homes, schlepping baggage, and not have to worry about parking or being stuck in traffic, or the all-day bus ride we have now or an $85 round trip taxi fare.

It would also be nice to be able to hop a train to the beach and get off within walking distance of the sand, since there's no parking at the beach anyway.

Connect people to the local malls, Alltel Stadium, and the concert arena, and have a realistic way for commuters to get to work and back. That's all I ask.

[apvbguy]

Originally Posted by Since 1972

Six more miles of Monorail? Pffft. Fuggetaboutit. The only way I see to make these systems actually work is to build a gazillion miles of rail criss crossing each and every neighborhood and connecting everybody to everything. Until that happens, it'll benefit too few people to be worthwhile.

We need to be able to go to and from Jax International Airport from our homes, schlepping baggage, and not have to worry about parking or being stuck in traffic, or the all-day bus ride we have now or an $85 round trip taxi fare.

It would also be nice to be able to hop a train to the beach and get off within walking distance of the sand, since there's no parking at the beach anyway.

Connect people to the local malls, Alltel Stadium, and the concert arena, and have a realistic way for commuters to get to work and back. That's all I ask.

you're not asking for too much, a viable, usable mass transit system would really make Jacksonville a top notch town.
who do you think should pay for this dream system?
I don't know of any mass transit system that isn't heavily subsidized.

[Since 1972]

Originally Posted by apvbguy

you're not asking for too much, a viable, usable mass transit system would really make Jacksonville a top notch town.
who do you think should pay for this dream system?
I don't know of any mass transit system that isn't heavily subsidized.

I'm sure they're all heavily subsidized. Of course, the same is true of the interstate highway system.

[KerryB]

I like this thread. I was actually just telling my wife yesterday how much I really HATE driving. Especially seeing that we lived in DC before here last year & they have the excellent "Metro" underground rail system, so we really took advantage of that. Its not that I really hate driving, I just don't like to feel that I HAVE to drive for every single thing that I may wanna do outside my home.

Yes, Jax (and many other big cities) needs some kind of serious rail system. Like you said, those bus "rapid systems" are stupid. Why would someone wanna take a bus & sit in traffic on the road when they could do that in their own car? And you cant just make a special lane all of a sudden for the bus to travel on.

And that monorail is a joke & really shouldn't have even been built. Tear that stupid thing down & get serious about mass transit. Other cities find a way & Jax could too, cause its just getting bigger & bigger. Sprawl is outta control, gas prices wont get better & population/cost of living keeps going up.

Plus, walking is so much healthier than going from your front door to car to parking lot to destination.

[apvbguy]

Originally Posted by Since 1972

I'm sure they're all heavily subsidized. Of course, the same is true of the interstate highway system.

the interstate highways system has a massive base of dedicated taxes that help to fund it, mass transit in JAX does not share that base, the Feds might kick in money for building it but money for operating it will surely have to be raised locally. This is something the mass transit advocates always seem to forget.
Are you willing to pay more taxes for a mass transit system?

[Since 1972]

Originally Posted by apvbguy

the interstate highways system has a massive base of dedicated taxes that help to fund it, mass transit in JAX does not share that base, the Feds might kick in money for building it but money for operating it will surely have to be raised locally. This is something the mass transit advocates always seem to forget.
Are you willing to pay more taxes for a mass transit system?

I'd have to get something for the money. Six little miles of monorail doesn't cut it. If people can honestly save money on driving (gas, insurance, wear and tear, aggravation, etc.) by paying higher taxes and dropping a buck into the turnstile when they take the train, then it might be worth paying for.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a small-government low taxes kinda guy. But I've seen what a properly done mass transit system can do, and it's a pretty nice thing to have.

[apvbguy]

Originally Posted by Since 1972

I'd have to get something for the money. Six little miles of monorail doesn't cut it. If people can honestly save money on driving (gas, insurance, wear and tear, aggravation, etc.) by paying higher taxes and dropping a buck into the turnstile when they take the train, then it might be worth paying for.

There's the rub, that buck or 2 you drop into the farebox usually does not cover the cost of that ride, hence the needed subsidies.
For example (not exact numbers) NYC has a $2 fare for their buses and subways but each ride costs about $3 to provide, people pay high tolls and there are extra taxes on everything to fund their system, is that what you want for JAX?

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by apvbguy

There's the rub, that buck or 2 you drop into the farebox usually does not cover the cost of that ride, hence the needed subsidies.
For example (not exact numbers) NYC has a $2 fare for their buses and subways but each ride costs about $3 to provide, people pay high tolls and there are extra taxes on everything to fund their system, is that what you want for JAX?

month pass for metro card (NYC mass transit pass) is 76$ USD. What is your monthly gas expense, insurance (per month), car maintenance per month? Once you figure that out, then figure out how much you will be paying for gas as gas nears 4 dollars a gallon (they said it will reach that before the end of 2008) and trust me, gas will not be going down in price from here on out.

[KerryB]

Originally Posted by apvbguy

There's the rub, that buck or 2 you drop into the farebox usually does not cover the cost of that ride, hence the needed subsidies.
For example (not exact numbers) NYC has a $2 fare for their buses and subways but each ride costs about $3 to provide, people pay high tolls and there are extra taxes on everything to fund their system, is that what you want for JAX?

You're comparing apples to oranges. NYC's transit system is the biggest in the country & NYC is one of the top most expensive places to live.

Be a little more modest. There are many other cities with mass transit that don't tax people to death & toll them to death.