Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
There's no great conspiracy to falsify employment levels.
Except that the people who are unemployed and not receiving unemployment and are looking for a job are NOT being counted. It may not be a conspiracy, but the truth isn't being told. Therefore, it is being falsified.
Except that the people who are unemployed and not receiving unemployment and are looking for a job are NOT being counted. It may not be a conspiracy, but the truth isn't being told. Therefore, it is being falsified.
I would beg to differ. Those people are included in the statistical sampling. The government has been doing it the same way since 1940. Read here: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where
I would beg to differ. Those people are included in the statistical sampling. The government has been doing it the same way since 1940. Read here: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where
Beg to differ all you want. I know that back when I was unemployed I never got contacted to do a survey about my employment status. I know of plenty of others who didn't get the survey as well. Therefore, the numbers just don't add up. After all, per the article they don't have the time or money to contact everyone:
"Other people think that the government counts every unemployed person each month. To do this, every home in the country would have to be contacted—just as in the population census every 10 years. This procedure would cost way too much and take far too long to produce the data. In addition, people would soon grow tired of having a census taker contact them every month, year after year, to ask about job-related activities.
Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country."
It's called statistical sampling. Again, read the info.
There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.
Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed for more than 4 consecutive months. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. As a result, approximately 75 percent of the sample remains the same from month to month and 50 percent remains the same from year to year. This procedure strengthens the reliability of estimates of month-to-month and year-to-year change in the data.
Each month, highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees contact the 60,000 eligible sample households and ask about the labor force activities (jobholding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). These are live interviews conducted either in person or over the phone. During the first interview of a household, the Census Bureau interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including key personal characteristics such as age, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on. The information is collected using a computerized questionnaire.
It's called statistical sampling. Again, read the info.
There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.
Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed for more than 4 consecutive months. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. As a result, approximately 75 percent of the sample remains the same from month to month and 50 percent remains the same from year to year. This procedure strengthens the reliability of estimates of month-to-month and year-to-year change in the data.
Each month, highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees contact the 60,000 eligible sample households and ask about the labor force activities (jobholding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). These are live interviews conducted either in person or over the phone. During the first interview of a household, the Census Bureau interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including key personal characteristics such as age, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on. The information is collected using a computerized questionnaire.
Oh c'mon you mean statisticians and scientists are more in tune with numbers than my personal n=1 experiences /sarcasm
No one has ever called me to participate in the Current Population Survey (CPS), which supposedly gauges the unemployment rate in the U.S. Nor has anyone ever called my friend who is also unemployed.
In my own twisted opinion, just with my experience searching for a job this past year, I believe the unemployment rate is probably around 12-18%, if you count people who go on disability because they can't find work it is probably closer to 20%. Many of the people in my neighborhood who are of working age (not retirement age), are on disability. Disability is a good gig if you can get it.
If I could get disability for being a misanthropic weirdo with a tinge of Asperger's, believe me I would sign up for it today.
It's called statistical sampling. Again, read the info.
There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people.
With 125 million households in the US, this means that somebody in your house will be contacted once every 173 years on this topic. Is it any wonder you (meaning hopefulone) haven't been asked?
The unemployment rate has a specific meaning. Of course if you want to start bringing things like underemployment and disability into it the numbers change, but you should realize that you are no longer talking about the unemployment rate.
Editing to clarify. Charlygal is exactly correct. People who don't agree with the unemployments stats need to learn about what is being measured and how. It is a very useful number
Last edited by fishbrains; 04-09-2017 at 11:42 AM..
Are you guys serious? Are you disputing the validity of statistical sampling? Have you ever taken a statistics course? These same methods are used in business, science, medicine, etc.
Again, this same method has been used for decades.
Lastly, the unemployment figure only includes people actively looking for employment. If people voluntarily take themselves out of the market because their feeling get hurt, then, technically, they are NOT unemployed and shouldn't be counted.
Either get in the game and stay in the game or sit on the sidelines and don't get counted. Statistically, such people are no longer in the population of unemployed and wouldn't be a part of the sample.
Are you guys serious? Are you disputing the validity of statistical sampling? Have you ever taken a statistics course? These same methods are used in business, science, medicine, etc.
Again, this same method has been used for decades.
Lastly, the unemployment figure only includes people actively looking for employment. If people voluntarily take themselves out of the market because their feeling get hurt, then, technically, they are NOT unemployed and shouldn't be counted.
Either get in the game and stay in the game or sit on the sidelines and don't get counted. Statistically, such people are no longer in the population of unemployed and wouldn't be a part of the sample.
It seems that since they were not personally included in the sample or they don't know anyone personally included in the sample, that the numbers are invalid.......which is even more laughable or appalling depending on how one looks at it! This why other countries destroy us in math and science
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
