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The mathematics of human procreation mean that if a man who lived 4000 years ago has descendants alive today, the probability is much higher that he has over a billion descendants than that he has 12-16 million descendants.
That statement may sound strange, as it is logical for a man to have a single surviving descendant after 4000 years. But to have a relatively small number of descendants, he would have to have along chain of very small families, and an incredible amount of intermarriage among his descendants. Given the mortality rate in history, the odds are that his bloodline would have died out. It may be "logically possible", but it the odds of it happening are statistically miniscule.
Mathematicians at Oxford believe that the "point of common ancestry" (POCA) of humanity occurred 5000 to 15000 years ago. The POCA ancestry is defined as the last time when everyone alive on the planet belongs in one of two categories. (A) his bloodline will die out, or (B) he will be in the family tree of every single person living in the year 2014 (all continents and all cultures).
So a man that lived 4000 years ago that has descendants alive today, probably has a billion descendants,
You can choose not to believe that statement, but it is the current best reasoning of some of the most brilliant scientists in the world. And the calculations still take into account the efforts of many ethnic groups to keep themselves pure.
The mathematics of human procreation mean that if a man who lived 4000 years ago has descendants alive today, the probability is much higher that he has over a billion descendants than that he has 12-16 million descendants.
That statement may sound strange, as it is logical for a man to have a single surviving descendant after 4000 years. But to have a relatively small number of descendants, he would have to have along chain of very small families, and an incredible amount of intermarriage among his descendants. Given the mortality rate in history, the odds are that his bloodline would have died out. It may be "logically possible", but it the odds of it happening are statistically miniscule.
Mathematicians at Oxford believe that the "point of common ancestry" (POCA) of humanity occurred 5000 to 15000 years ago. The POCA ancestry is defined as the last time when everyone alive on the planet belongs in one of two categories. (A) his bloodline will die out, or (B) he will be in the family tree of every single person living in the year 2014 (all continents and all cultures).
So a man that lived 4000 years ago that has descendants alive today, probably has a billion descendants,
You can choose not to believe that statement, but it is the current best reasoning of some of the most brilliant scientists in the world. And the calculations still take into account the efforts of many ethnic groups to keep themselves pure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PacoMartin
So how many Jews are in the world?
Are these two parts of your post supposed to be related somehow?
If Abraham has over a billion descendants then how many Jews are in the world?
Does that billion include the millions that have been slaughtered throughout history and all of their potential descendants?
Does it include the exiles and forced conversions to other religions?
Does it include assimilation and the loss of entire families?
Does it include the non-Jewish tribes that descended from him?
Last edited by JB from NC; 02-09-2014 at 05:38 AM..
Does that billion include the millions that have been slaughtered throughout history and all of their potential descendants?
Does it include the exiles and forced conversions to other religions?
Does it include assimilation and the loss of entire families?
Does it include the non-Jewish tribes that descended from him?
If Abraham has over a billion descendants then how many Jews are in the world?
Wrong forum. Your question belongs in the "I hate G-d forum" down the hall. We're Yidden in this forum. It's not our interest to spend our mental efforts trying to simultaneously destroy our belief in G-d while at the same time trying to strengthen our direct relationship with Him.
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