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Old 12-16-2011, 03:58 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Minnesota Spring View Post
Here is an interesting link for metro populations by year: Population -- Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Home
Thanks for that link. A much better to read source. Here's an older 2007 report (2005 data) but shows who moved to/from where. Wish they would update that report. Has KC and MSP.

http://www.metrooutlook.org/assets/migration2007.pdf

Bummer about STL. At least it's not as bad as Cleveland or Detroit. My theory is that it has to do with 'city personality' rather than crime but not many in STL will admit to that. STL seems to get a lot of in-migration, just not keeping them more than 5-10 years. It seems STL is really on a turnaround, it just needs job improvement. I'm from there and was harsh on it in past but it just feels like it's getting better in last couple years. The numbers aren't quite backing it up yet.
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Old 12-16-2011, 04:43 PM
 
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So stat nut I am, I wonder if the MSP baby making thing has to do with being over 50% religious and above US avg. KC/Indy/Columbus metros are apparently below US avg as religious. Are there a lot of large families? I work with many in our MSP office and have not noticed any with large families but many are pretty religious.

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Last edited by Yac; 12-28-2011 at 06:30 AM..
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Old 12-16-2011, 05:11 PM
 
Location: IN
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Originally Posted by xenokc View Post
So stat nut I am, I wonder if the MSP baby making thing has to do with being over 50% religious and above US avg. KC/Indy/Columbus metros are apparently below US avg as religious. Are there a lot of large families? I work with many in our MSP office and have not noticed any with large families but many are pretty religious.

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I think it has more to do with MSP attracting a wide number of people from the surrounding nodal region, which is one of the largest rural areas east of the Rockies. Many of these people move to MSP for employment of a more diverse nature since nearly all of the surrounding metros are very small. That, and the fact that MSP has the highest salaries and income levels of any metro in the Midwest would lead to a more varied demographic makeup overall.

Last edited by Yac; 12-28-2011 at 06:30 AM..
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Old 12-16-2011, 05:15 PM
 
Location: IN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xenokc View Post
Thanks for that link. A much better to read source. Here's an older 2007 report (2005 data) but shows who moved to/from where. Wish they would update that report. Has KC and MSP.

http://www.metrooutlook.org/assets/migration2007.pdf

Bummer about STL. At least it's not as bad as Cleveland or Detroit. My theory is that it has to do with 'city personality' rather than crime but not many in STL will admit to that. STL seems to get a lot of in-migration, just not keeping them more than 5-10 years. It seems STL is really on a turnaround, it just needs job improvement. I'm from there and was harsh on it in past but it just feels like it's getting better in last couple years. The numbers aren't quite backing it up yet.
Much of it does have to do with growing and retaining jobs. St. Louis city lost many jobs and St. Louis county also did not gain a single net job overall since 2000. Jackson county lost 11% of all employment since 2000 with JOCO gaining a 22% differential advantage over KCMO in overall job gains. People are moving where the jobs are going. The places where job growth is lagging, pop growth will begin lagging as well. MN should be gaining far more employment than MO this decade as it just has many advantages that are already inherent in having MSP anchoring all growth in the Upper Midwest.
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Old 12-16-2011, 05:46 PM
 
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All three have sucked with jobs over last 10 years. Seems reasonable jobs would be a major factor but this doesn't seem to always be the case.

MSP Metro Employment (not quite back to 10 years ago)


STL Metro (not quite back to 10 year ago)


KC Metro (not quite back to 10 years ago, never fell below 2004 level at least)



Chicago Metro (has a long long way to go to get back to 10 years ago)


LA too


Even Atlanta is in worse shape than STL/KC/MSP yet still has significant in-migration...

Last edited by xenokc; 12-16-2011 at 06:32 PM..
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Old 12-16-2011, 05:53 PM
 
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MSP is the traditionally larger and more mature city of the ones noted. It's cost of living should be a somewhat higher too, so it's not too surprising to see higher migration for the smaller metros. I think overall all of those cities have done well and will continue to have at least moderate and steady growth based on the past several decades.
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Old 12-17-2011, 08:33 AM
 
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Oops, for STL I acidentally pasted the link to MSP jobs. Annoying this site doesn't allow editing posts forever.

Here is STL metro employment.. also not quite back to 10 years ago. I suspect STL will soon show improved net migration though.

Last edited by xenokc; 12-17-2011 at 09:47 AM..
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Old 12-17-2011, 08:44 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeP View Post
MSP is the traditionally larger and more mature city of the ones noted. It's cost of living should be a somewhat higher too, so it's not too surprising to see higher migration for the smaller metros. I think overall all of those cities have done well and will continue to have at least moderate and steady growth based on the past several decades.
Methinks moderate and steady growth of in-migration is better than too fast but depending on baby making for growth with low to negative in-migration makes a provincial metro. But yeah, there are not really any cities I care for that had ultra high growth, partly due to it. Atlanta/Dallas/Phoenix/Vegas/Orlando - not my thing partly because they grew too fast.

KC has decent moderate in-migration growth and less reliance on baby making than MSP but would rather see more infill instead of sprawl.
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Old 12-17-2011, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Carver County, MN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xenokc View Post
Methinks moderate and steady growth of in-migration is better than too fast but depending on baby making for growth with low to negative in-migration makes a provincial metro. But yeah, there are not really any cities I care for that had ultra high growth, partly due to it. Atlanta/Dallas/Phoenix/Vegas/Orlando - not my thing partly because they grew too fast.

KC has decent moderate in-migration growth and less reliance on baby making than MSP but would rather see more infill instead of sprawl.
But MSP still rely on in-migration for growth as alot of that occurred up to 2001. I suspect that as the economy improves, MSP will see in-migration again as it is just a slight loss right now and not quite as bad as St. Louis.
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Old 12-17-2011, 01:50 PM
 
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Yeah, makes sense. Is strange though that MSP had domestic pop losses even in the early/mid 2000s too while there was job increase going on by mid-200s. Like most metros, the big dump in jobs didn't hit til later 2008. Would agree though that MSP is better positioned than KC/Indy/Columbus/STL to somewhat take off again once economy recovers.
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