Random population stats.... (Kansas City, St. Louis, Lee's Summit: sales, 2013, low crime)

[Bluefox]

Originally Posted by RisingAurvandil

Look, growth is good, but most of us know that both cities are declining in their cores. The 2010 census makes that very clear. Sure, each has a few bright neighborhoods, but the vast majority of growth is in the burbs.

I don't think that KC is declining nearly as much as St. Louis though. Even if you disregard the differences in the city limits, which I think you should, my theory is that KC still comes out on top in the urban core when it comes to stemming population loss, and most definitely wins when it comes to growth in the metro area. KC has huge city limits which you don't normally see outside of the South and the West, and it skews the data. But the metro overall sees quite a bit of growth, particularly in Johnson County which really does experience sunbelt-style growth. Does Saint Louis have anything comparable to Johnson County? Not a sarcastic or rhetorical question.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Bluefox

I don't think that KC is declining nearly as much as St. Louis though. Even if you disregard the differences in the city limits, which I think you should, my theory is that KC still comes out on top in the urban core when it comes to stemming population loss, and most definitely wins when it comes to growth in the metro area. KC has huge city limits which you don't normally see outside of the South and the West, and it skews the data. But the metro overall sees quite a bit of growth, particularly in Johnson County which really does experience sunbelt-style growth. Does Saint Louis have anything comparable to Johnson County? Not a sarcastic or rhetorical question.

Johnson County growth in percentage terms is nowhere near as high as in previous decades. It will likely grow at a slower rate than 2000-2010, unless percentages dramatically increase over the next few years.

[Bluefox]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Johnson County growth in percentage terms is nowhere near as high as in previous decades. It will likely grow at a slower rate than 2000-2010, unless percentages dramatically increase over the next few years.

Yeah, it has slowed to an average of about 11% decade growth if the Census estimates are to be trusted, but a lot of sunbelt cities are also seeing that as well. Even so, it would still be considered quite a high rate of growth for a Midwestern county. Overland Park and Olathe in particular are growing quite meaningfully. But it's definitely maturing in growth.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Bluefox

Yeah, it has slowed to an average of about 11% decade growth if the Census estimates are to be trusted, but a lot of sunbelt cities are also seeing that as well. Even so, it would still be considered quite a high rate of growth for a Midwestern county. Overland Park and Olathe in particular are growing quite meaningfully. But it's definitely maturing in growth.

That is often the case for areas that are completely built out, like any other area that becomes more demographically mature. One of the fastest growing suburban counties in the US is in the Sunbelt in Collin County, TX. It went from 782K to 885K between 2010-2014. JOCO went from 544K to 574K in that same time frame.

[kcmo]

Originally Posted by Bluefox

Well a lot has to do with the fact that STL is a much smaller city... the annexed areas north of the river are part of KC proper but are basically suburbia, and that's what I think is driving growth. Downtown and Midtown/Plaza areas too, but I don't think enough to offset the population loss in the blighted half of the city east of Troost. Though I will say, there seem to be a number of newer and nicer developments east of Troost in recent years. Interestingly, the older suburbs in the Northland like Gladstone and Liberty don't seem to be growing too fast, the really "booming" areas do seem to be in KC proper, especially the 3 mile or so radius around the Barry Rd and I-29/Zona Rosa/Tiffany Springs area and northward, like Platte City.

KC proper is, based on the 2010-2014 estimates, growing at a faster pace than it has since 1970. That I think is a really good sign for the city. I'm not sure if it will get to 500k by 2020 but it will definitely by 2025.

And wow at JoCo... Overland Park and Olathe are still booming.

Nearly all growth in the Northland is in KCMO proper. Second to KCMO would be un-incorporated Platte County in areas west of Parkville mostly. Gladstone is nearly built out and landlocked so very little room to grow. Liberty is sort of an oddball. It's been around for a while, but it's still an ourterbelt suburb with room to grow. Liberty is sort of anti growth though. It has not declined at all though, if anything, the housing and retail centers have only improved even though the city is slow growth.

However, just across I-35 is the fastest growing area in all of metro KC, including Johnson County. That area is called Shoal Creek and it's actually KCMO proper, but it's sort of the Liberty "area". In only about 10-15 years, the Shoal Creek area of KCMo grew from only a few thousand to more than the population of Liberty (close to 30k now) and it's still growing. Two new high schools were built to serve the area recently.

However, do to sewer infrastructure upgrades, the Twin Creeks area of KCMO is about to take off and it will be 2-3 times the size of Shoal Creek (about 75k) when built out in 20 years. That is the area east of KCI/I-29, west of 169, south of 435 and north of 152. That area of KCMO will be one of the hottest growth areas of metro KC over the next couple of decades. So as fast as the northland has been growing recently, it's about to take things to another level.

There is also still a lot of infill in northland KCMO in areas like along Line Creek and along 1-29 south of Platte Woods. Combine that with all the residential construction in urban KCMO and a stabilizing east side, I think you will see KCMO's population start to shoot up rather fast. KCMO should easily pass 500k in ten years even with continued east side population loss. I can see KCMO hitting 600k in the next 30 years. I think people are underestimating the future growth of the Northland and the revival of urban KCMO.

St Louis unfortunately is one of the poorest performing cities/metros in the country. It's a very slow growth region and not a city KC should really even compare to.

[Bluefox]

^^That's true I did forget about Shoal Creek. That is about 10 miles east of I-29. Interesting about the Twin Creeks area.

[Bluefox]

KCMO or anyone else, what are your thoughts on Independence? Seems like slow growth. A lot of co workers think it's in decline. They think the mall is going to ****. But I was just at Independence Center and it was totally packed. It doesn't have a lot of the nice stores like Oak Park but it's fairly good as far as malls go.

[kcmo]

Originally Posted by Bluefox

KCMO or anyone else, what are your thoughts on Independence? Seems like slow growth. A lot of co workers think it's in decline. They think the mall is going to ****. But I was just at Independence Center and it was totally packed. It doesn't have a lot of the nice stores like Oak Park but it's fairly good as far as malls go.

People have been saying that mall is going to **** for as long as I can remember. It's typically people that don't go there anyway. From what I have read, the mall is as popular as ever and fully leased. It's actually growing as they are adding a Dicks sporting goods to the mall which will take some of the Sears space, but it will also add some sq footage as well. I still think the mall has one of the best layouts I have seen anywhere. I like how you an see nearly the entire mall from the main atrium.

That entire area of Independence is thriving. All four corners of the I-70 / I-470 interchange have growing commercial development of retail, hotels, apartments and restaurants. Basically its fine and the area is a super regional destination for about a half million people in the eastern jackson county and beyond like Warrensburg etc.

As far as the entire city, it's more of a mixed bag. Northern Independence is some of the poorest areas in all of metro KC. The poverty is parts of northern Independence is as bad or worse than the worst parts of east kcmo or kck. Those are also the areas that gave the city its "meth" image when the city was shutting down all the meth labs in the early 2000's. This is a sizable part of the city, but still probably only about 20%.

Most of the southern parts of the city (generally along I-70) is simply working middle class. Modest ranches, but generally well maintained. Very few empty properties etc. This part of Independence (which is probably 60% of the population) gets a bad rap. It's just blue collar suburbia and not a bad place to live if you don't make enough or don't want to live in Lee's Summit or Liberty.

There are some high growth areas of Independence, mostly northeastern in the Fort Osage area or in parts of the city in the Blue Springs school district. This area sees quite a bit of new homes, but they are generally modest new homes or starter homes.

Then you have southeast Independence. This is a very nice area and most of it is VERY affluent. From Lee's Summit Road southeast to the borders of Lees Summit and Blue Springs. There are parts of Independence in this area that will blow people away if they knew they existed. Most people don't know these areas exist and if they do know about the areas, they probably don't realize they are in Independence and not Lee's Summit or Blue Springs.

Downtown Independence is actually a very underrated and overlooked historic district in metro KC with some nice shops, cafes etc and nice restored and charming historic homes.

I think the city is doing okay. There are some huge mixed use new urbanism projects that are taking a very long time to get off the ground in the little blue valley. I think that is the area that is key if Independence is going to continue to grow or even remain stable. Those projects need to get going.

We are at the mall every time we are in KC and it's doing very well and always bringing in new tenants.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by rwiksell

Indepedence is the 4th-largest city in Missouri, and yet Olathe surpasses it? Amazing...

I'm looking forward to KCMO topping the half-million mark again, eventually. Looks like the only time that happened in the past was at the 1970 census. And it once ranked as low as 19th, but we all know that's never happening again.

Well, having lived in Chicago, if you judged it by how long it takes to get downtown from where you live....St Joe is as much a part of "the metro" as many of the Chicago burbs. On a bad traffic day, you might be able to include Des Moines too.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Johnson County growth in percentage terms is nowhere near as high as in previous decades. It will likely grow at a slower rate than 2000-2010, unless percentages dramatically increase over the next few years.

A lot of that is math related though.

If you have a town of 100k and add 20k a year to it, your percentage growth rate goes from 20% in the first year to 7% roughly a decade later. (just as an example).