News: "Kansas tax collections nearly $54M below expectations in February; universities face millions in cuts" (Hope: budget, estimate)

[thriftylefty]

Brownback wants to change Kansas budget estimate process | Local News - KMBC Home

I think this is called Killing the messenger.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by SyraBrian

The March shortfall was "only" $1.7 million.

Just remember, when it goes negative by 1.7million some month to show it as a percentage rather than total dollars because 1.7 million makes the number seem material and 0.1% or so just makes people shrug.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by thriftylefty

Brownback wants to change Kansas budget estimate process | Local News - KMBC Home

I think this is called Killing the messenger.

Without knowing what goes on between the governors office and the estimators you nor I can accurately comment.

If they are independent and have been getting it wrong for the past year then um, shouldn't they look to see what they're doing wrong?

If Brownback etc. pressured them or influenced what the estimates of the tax changes then yeah, it's deflection of blame.

I've seen BOTH of the above happen in corporate settings.

A third option is that given the complexities of state-national-global economics and making major tax changes that there is going to be inherent difficulty in estimating budgets a year in advance. Since we've already discussed Oklahoma missing their estimates by over a billion I'm a little surprised that you aren't contemplating that it's not unique to KS.

[thriftylefty]

Originally Posted by Mathguy

Without knowing what goes on between the governors office and the estimators you nor I can accurately comment.

If they are independent and have been getting it wrong for the past year then um, shouldn't they look to see what they're doing wrong?

If Brownback etc. pressured them or influenced what the estimates of the tax changes then yeah, it's deflection of blame.

I've seen BOTH of the above happen in corporate settings.

A third option is that given the complexities of state-national-global economics and making major tax changes that there is going to be inherent difficulty in estimating budgets a year in advance. Since we've already discussed Oklahoma missing their estimates by over a billion I'm a little surprised that you aren't contemplating that it's not unique to KS.

Is he changing the parameters of his experiment?

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by thriftylefty

Is he changing the parameters of his experiment?

Again, without being present it's impossible to know.

The only thing I'm 100% sure about is that his supporters will think it's a good, fair thing to do and his rivals will think the opposite.

However, they are currently just looking at other states and how they estimate their budget revenue etc.

Logically, at this phase you cannot claim that the parameters have changed because nothing has changed....you could claim that he's making excuses....but whether they're somewhat valid or not we don't know.

Personally my inclination is that because he's a politician AND because many other states are having similar shortfalls without the major tax changes that the vast majority of this is whining and excuse making by both Brownbacks camp and of course his rivals.

It's an election year and let's be honest....ALL the crazy comes out of politically inclined people during election years. Sane, reasonable thought goes right out the window.

[Kthnry]

Originally Posted by Mathguy

Personally my inclination is that because he's a politician AND because many other states are having similar shortfalls without the major tax changes that the vast majority of this is whining and excuse making by both Brownbacks camp and of course his rivals.

I believe the only other state with such extreme budget shortages is Louisiana, where Bobby Jindal took the same unfortunate path as Brownback. In fact, Louisiana is probably in worse shape than Kansas. Are there any other Republican governors planning to try this strategy?

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by Kthnry

I believe the only other state with such extreme budget shortages is Louisiana, where Bobby Jindal took the same unfortunate path as Brownback. In fact, Louisiana is probably in worse shape than Kansas. Are there any other Republican governors planning to try this strategy?

Google Oklahoma budget shortage. (Oil prices hammering most states with large oil revenues) In fact, that's cited as one of the reasons KS is in a shortfall.

Also, my home state of Illinois still doesn't even have a budget so I guess they are doing better than anybody!

Then again, if you also "believe" some media it won't matter in Illinois because they will all be shot dead by gang members this year.

There are concerted right and left wing media attacks on some states\regions due to politics so be careful where you get news and take it with a grain of salt.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Mathguy

Google Oklahoma budget shortage. (Oil prices hammering most states with large oil revenues) In fact, that's cited as one of the reasons KS is in a shortfall.

Also, my home state of Illinois still doesn't even have a budget so I guess they are doing better than anybody!

Then again, if you also "believe" some media it won't matter in Illinois because they will all be shot dead by gang members this year.

There are concerted right and left wing media attacks on some states\regions due to politics so be careful where you get news and take it with a grain of salt.

Once again, Kansas has a small fraction of total employment from the energy sector compared to Oklahoma, so that is not a valid reason.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Once again, Kansas has a small fraction of total employment from the energy sector compared to Oklahoma, so that is not a valid reason.

Didn't say that. Maybe re-read carefully.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Mathguy

Didn't say that. Maybe re-read carefully.

Yes, I understand that point. However, the lower employment levels with respect to total state employment in the energy sector in Kansas does not qualify it has an "energy patch" state compared to Oklahoma, Wyoming, North Dakota, Alaska, etc.