ETSU economist very skeptical that region can sustain retail growth. (Knoxville: sales, 2014)

[Serious Conversation]

ETSU economist Steb Hipple stated recently that he doesn't think the region can sustain its retail growth, largely because retail sales and wages/employment are going in different directions. I completely concur with him.

Expert questions if region can support new shopping centers | Kingsport Times-News

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I think you're right. This is just the recent version of this argument that has been made by Strb and others for about a year now. That's when we were a year into the current jobs slump. At the same time average private sector wages have been stagnant. When adjusted for inflation against a 2008 benchmark Kingsport-Bristol's weekly average is up $5 while it down about $60 in Johnson City where most of the jobs have been lost in the last two years.

[bound2TN]

Interesting article--thanks for sharing. I notice in the Comments the usual complaints about low wages. What people ignore is the relatively low cost of living. See the attached--- http://www.money-rates.com/research-...-list.htm---or to calculate the COL in another place--- Cost of Living Calculator | Comparison Tool
Sometimes, if you don't like the wages, living conditions, etc. in a place, you have to bite the bullet and go elsewhere.

[Rangerred]

Definitely an interesting article. I think the layout of the Tri-Cities influences this somewhat as each city thinks they deserve the same retail as the other cities. Even if the market won't support this in the long run, retailers are happy to take advantage of the incentives offered and will then simply close up when the deal runs out. Retail tends to have a very poor return on investment in a prosperous area so Bristol and Kingsport incentivizing these developments is just foolish and extremely short-sighted.

The job loss statistics are surprising. Not sure if ETSU and the seasonal employment associated with college students has anything to do with this. Also, Unicoi and and Carter counties are in the Johnson City MSA and their economies have been suffering for some time. However looking at incomes, Johnson City has a median family in come of nearly $60,000 so the city itself is far from poor or depressed.

I do think a big reason their hasn't been a ton of retail growth in Johnson City is due to a stagnant job market and the fact that the city has been smart in not incentivizing retail. JC's investments have been in infrastructure and amenities to hopefully attract jobs and retail without the need of incentives. It is my hope that these investments, along with JC' emergence as the cultural leader in the region, will bring higher paying tech, medical, and finance jobs.

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Originally Posted by bound2TN

Interesting article--thanks for sharing. I notice in the Comments the usual complaints about low wages. What people ignore is the relatively low cost of living. See the attached--- http://www.money-rates.com/research-...-list.htm---or to calculate the COL in another place--- Cost of Living Calculator | Comparison Tool
Sometimes, if you don't like the wages, living conditions, etc. in a place, you have to bite the bullet and go elsewhere.

Since local MSA are not part of the Bank Rate calculator check out the COL comparison at Best Places.
Some of the interesting things you'll find is the cost of living in Knoxville is lower than it is in Kingsport, but wages are higher. Moderator cut: link removed, linking to competitor sites is not allowedThat doesn't take away from the fact that the cost of living in the Tri-Cities is low. But the average pay for private sector workers in both the Kingsport-Bristol and Johnson City MSAs traditionally holds down the bottom of comparisons with other MSAs in the state. That also doesn't mean there are not high-paying jobs in the Tri-Cities. There are. The bigger picture, in my opinion, is this area is developing a two-tiered marketpalce and that's not a very good ground for growth.

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by bound2TN

Interesting article--thanks for sharing. I notice in the Comments the usual complaints about low wages. What people ignore is the relatively low cost of living. See the attached--- http://www.money-rates.com/research-...-list.htm---or to calculate the COL in another place--- Cost of Living Calculator | Comparison Tool
Sometimes, if you don't like the wages, living conditions, etc. in a place, you have to bite the bullet and go elsewhere.

We all know wages and COL are low. Still, a lot of people would be better served by living in a place that pays a lot better, even if costs a little more.