[olecapt]

Originally Posted by New City V

jfkIII, you did not answer my question about the target of your Business Week statistics,
so I must assume they are for the older, smaller, more urban "city of Las Vegas" rather
than the typically suburban Las Vegas metro area. Better luck next time.

*

The numbers are for Las Vegas Paradise which are the metro numbers. They also compute.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by ParkTwain

A default notice on a mortgage payment doesn't mean that foreclosure will happen. It's only the first of three phases in the process for which the economists track the numbers: default notices, auction sale notices, and bank repossessions. The foreclosure activity is more of a pipeline, with exit points along the way before the end of the pipe is reached. Not everyone who misses or delays a payment ends up being repossessed by a bank. So don't take the combined figures for a given city too seriously if the highest figure is the number of default notices, especially if the other two figures aren't significantly rising month-to-month. That's my understanding as a person NOT in the RE business.

Don't think it makes any difference. It is a relative number. Whether absolutely accurate really is not an issue. Las Vegas is high up in the foreclosure numbers. That does not of course make it an issue.

The Las Vegas Short sales are over 50% owner occupied and over 90% locally owned. Half of the houses offered as short sales were built since 2003. It would appear that those in financial trouble are almost all locals and mostly owner occupied. And pretty much all in the last four years.

Financial sin is punished...unless you are lucky.

[asik]

When these houses are put back on the market as REO, houses will start really coming down (real estate agent has said they're already 25% lower). It will take years and will get at least 50% lower prices. Every lowering will wipe out another sucker who fell for the line "real estate never goes down".

[olecapt]

No such thing is happening. See...

http://www.lasvegasrealtor.com/stats/Statindex.htm

The median price of Single Family Residential is down less than 2% year over year. The average price is actually up a good bit.

The median is actually a little worse than shown as the spifs offererd to buyers are up. Likely impacts the costs around 1 or 1 1/2 per cent. But we are still down on the median only between 3 and 3 1/2 per cent. The average likely represents an increase in the portion of the sold population with very expensive homes. These show little impact from the downturn.

We see some specific neighborhoods down as much as 8 or 10% but others that are actually up. Go figure.

Single family homes are selling at 1500 per month and have been consistent in that range since the first of the year. Well down from the last few years.

What happens next? Not much. My guess is the present trend continues. Flat sales numbers, increasing inventory and slowly decreasing prices.

There are deals out there but mostly those who are up against some limit and have to sell.

The short sales simply point out that builders manage pretty consistently to collect more than fair market for their homes. The "new home" premium. If you end up overextended or have to sell you are in trouble. Those homes seldom go much below market...they are simply mortgaged above the market.

[SHEPNYC]

Here's the latest numbers for June, just out today. Not very encouraging.


Nevada's foreclosure rate, with one filing in June for every 175 households, topped the list for the sixth straight month and was more than four times the national average. The state's foreclosure filings dropped by 10 percent from May but remained three times the year-earlier level.

[asik]

Nevada is a non-rescission state, meaning your home lender can come after you for any shortfall, unlike Cal. There will be a lot more bankruptcies as foreclosures rise. The Vegas housing bubble is toast.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by asik

Nevada is a non-rescission state, meaning your home lender can come after you for any shortfall, unlike Cal. There will be a lot more bankruptcies as foreclosures rise. The Vegas housing bubble is toast.

Where do you get this babble. All states are rescission states. It is required by federal law. Has nothing to do with foreclosure.

[asik]

In California, a mortgagee can turn in the keys to the bank or lender and be done with it (except for any taxes on the shortfall). In Nevada and many other states, the bank can sue the foreclosed mortgagee for any shortfall in what the bank gets when they sell the house. The mortgagee who was foreclosed upon would then want to declare bankruptcy to avoid owing the bank more money.
Bankruptcies will rise in Las Vegas in huge numbers.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by asik

In California, a mortgagee can turn in the keys to the bank or lender and be done with it (except for any taxes on the shortfall). In Nevada and many other states, the bank can sue the foreclosed mortgagee for any shortfall in what the bank gets when they sell the house. The mortgagee who was foreclosed upon would then want to declare bankruptcy to avoid owing the bank more money.
Bankruptcies will rise in Las Vegas in huge numbers.

That is called a deficiency judgement. While technically possible it rarely happens. The process is reasonably complicated and difficult and can in some cases bite the bank. Its only real use to the bank is as a threat.

It will have no significant impact on foreclosures in Nevada.

[asik]

But the increasing number of foreclosures will lead to more bankruptcies. No knowledgeable person thinks real estate prices will keep going up.
Deficiency judgments are quite common, as are taxes due on the deficiency. The bank can't write off the loss unless they hit the foreclosed borrower with a IRS Form 1099.