[SHEPNYC]

Vegas makes the list at number 5:


Best And Worst U.S. Housing Markets - Forbes.com

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by SHEPNYC

Vegas makes the list at number 5:


Best And Worst U.S. Housing Markets - Forbes.com

Down 7.1%? We will survive

[dynimagelv]

I am not a housing guru but I remain convinced that the only ones that will get bit are the fastbuck guys that rolled in with a hot idea to make a million and didn't care how much they paid to do it. Thanks to them....my $130,000 house is not $235,000....so IF it falls by 10% or %20 I still come out on top cause I'm not here to flip houses.

I have seen [in my 45 years here] sooo many boom and bust periods that it isnt even funny anymore....We WILL survive.

[cbell74]

Here's how the housing market caught me.

2 and a half years ago I moved to Las Vegas from Anchorage for work. I had done fairly well in the real estate market there and at at the time Vegas was still very hot. In fact, things were so hot that I offered nearly the asking price on one condo and was turned down since the seller received an offer for more than she was asking!

I finally found a place in Henderson in my price range and set up a 90/10 interest only loan after putting 10% down. Now before people start yelling about my loan, I did it that way to avoid PMI and have the flexibility to make different monthly payments. I work for the federal government and have a rotating shift schedule (24/7/365), so some of my monthly checks are a lot more due to night differential and Sunday/Holiday pay. Hwever, I always made sure to pay off the amount every month and put down additional money toward the principle so at a minimum every month I was making a payment very close to a 30 year fixed mortgage amount (and many months I put down quite a bit more than the 30 year fixed amount would have been due to higher paychecks).

A few months ago I received a promotion and will be leaving Nevada in December. As is the case with many people, the market in my area is very difficult with many properties up for sale. A few people on my block have not had a single person stop by and look.

My only trump card is the government will buy my house from me after 60 days. Even with that, I am still expecting to lose at least 10% on the property. If the appraisal comes in low, I may lose 20%.

I feel sorry for anyone right now who is needs to move. If they don't have the buyout option and are a recent buyer, they are probably going to be in a world of hurt.

Charles

[Tim Currie]

Gotta question for olecapt (you are a Vegas Realtor right...?) was gonna start a new thread but this seems appropriate.....


Can you please explain to me which one of these September sales figures is correct:

1)
» Las Vegas: September Sales Down 43% YOY, Median Down 8% - Housing Doom

Says Sept. SFH sales were 990 (I know that doesnt include condos).

2)
DQNews - Phoenix Press Release (http://www.dqnews.com/RRCLNV1007.shtm - broken link)
*link says phoenix but goes to Vegas...
Says Sept. sales were 3,033 and includes condos.

I'm confused

Where is the correct source for getting the sales numbers for different city markets?

Also, is there a place where one can view total sales so far this year for a particular city market? (like if I want to see how many sales have closed in vegas so far in '07, or how many there were in '06)

Appreciate any help you can give.

Tim

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Tim Currie

Gotta question for olecapt (you are a Vegas Realtor right...?) was gonna start a new thread but this seems appropriate.....


Can you please explain to me which one of these September sales figures is correct:

1)
» Las Vegas: September Sales Down 43% YOY, Median Down 8% - Housing Doom

Says Sept. SFH sales were 990 (I know that doesnt include condos).

2)
DQNews - Phoenix Press Release (http://www.dqnews.com/RRCLNV1007.shtm - broken link)
*link says phoenix but goes to Vegas...
Says Sept. sales were 3,033 and includes condos.

I'm confused

Where is the correct source for getting the sales numbers for different city markets?

Also, is there a place where one can view total sales so far this year for a particular city market? (like if I want to see how many sales have closed in vegas so far in '07, or how many there were in '06)

Appreciate any help you can give.

Tim

Don't ever expect these numbers to line up exactly. They flop around like rubber bands in the period near the end of the month.

The numbers cited use different sources and count different things. The are actually pretty compatible if properly sorted out. The 990 number is SFR only from GLVAR. That is the total sale of single family residences through the MLS in the month of September and reported by October 5. The current GLVAR number for single families in Septemeber is actually 1011. This number is readily available close to months end and has very good data behind it. It does not however include transactions not in the MLS. Those include private deals and new build. September sales that come in after the cutoff are credited to the next month for trending purposes.

The county data base includes all sales but is not timely. It is not available until a few weeks after the end of the month. It is possible to seperate resales from new build with a little work. It presently shows 2441 single families and 745 condos and townhouses. Those are all September numbers.

In general for trending purposes I use the GLVAR single family numbers. My ratonale is that they are the only numbers that are reasonable consistent and have a similar population over the years. The condo numbers are loused up by condo conversions which are behaving abomonably and the high rises which drive prices to very high levels. New Build numbers can have all sorts of economic incentives built in that don't show in the sales price.

GLVAR has a comprehensive set of stats at...

http://www.lasvegasrealtor.com/stats/Statindex.htm

There is good public access to individual County records through the Assessor Office. There is however no good public access to the data base.

[Tim Currie]

Thanks olecapt!

So if I understand correctly I can compare DQnews stats for different cities and although the numbers may differ from other sources, they are still relative as long as I am comparing DQnews data to DQnews data and not DQ vs. GLVAR?

Also, so the 990 (or 1011) number is more accurate of sales that are closed using a Realtor as opposed to the DQnews number?

Basically, I am interested in how many closings (SFH's OR condos) there are through traditional Realtor listings in two different areas: Vegas and Denver.

Do you know of a source to compare Vegas in this manner with Denver?

Thanks again, appreciate it!

Tim

[SHEPNYC]

More Housing Troubles:

Existing home sales fall to record low in Oct - Yahoo! News (broken link)

[SHEPNYC]

Existing homes drop 11.4%

KOLO - Southern Nevada News (http://www.kolotv.com/southernnevadanews/headlines/11741001.html - broken link)

[dude66]

Yeah, not good - though stocks are loving it, figuring this sort of news means another rate cut. I swear the stock market is a like a crack-addict desperate for their next fix.

"The median price of a home sold during the month fell 5.1 percent to $207,800 from $218,900 a year earlier. It marked the largest year-over-year drop in prices and the 15th month in the last 17 in which that key measure declined. Before the start of the current housing slump, it had been 11 years since prices fell compared to a year earlier.

The median price of a single-family home fell even more, dropping a record 6.3 percent to $205,700. The trade group has tracked those sales prices going back to 1989, so the record is even more significant than the record price drop in all existing homes. The previous record price drop for that key part of the housing market was set in September."