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Old 12-05-2007, 08:25 AM
 
1,755 posts, read 3,744,223 times
Reputation: 228
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobKovacs View Post
But in this case, we've got the president of a major national home builder telling people that prices "home prices "may not have stopped falling yet," adding that it may not "be the best time to buy a home."" That's the exact opposite of the barber analogy, and should be a cause for some concern, dontcha think? I'd be like your barber telling you "nah....you can go a few more months without a cut".
Unfortunately, many people "buy into" the best case scenario, instead of the worst case scenario. In reality, the people who play by the rules are often times not the winners, as will be evidenced by freezing rates, and govt. bailouts. Smoke and mirrors are the way of the financial world, and eventually, the piper must be paid. For every winner, there's a corresponding loser somewhere----the masses.
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Old 12-06-2007, 07:34 AM
 
Location: Jersey City
416 posts, read 1,183,942 times
Reputation: 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by muneepenee View Post
problem with repo's:
bout 25% R trashed. Apparentlee many get mad wen the bank take bak the hous. Also, many rented the empty hous, so renters live theer then suddenly
(without warning), em get throed out intu the street. & yuno how volatile
em wetbak "hispaniks" kan get.
Hmmm . . .but you're not going to be buying it without visiting it . . . and any serious problems are supposed to be disclosed to you anyway--even if you did buy without seeing it first.
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Old 12-06-2007, 09:42 AM
 
Location: Santa Monica
4,708 posts, read 5,495,505 times
Reputation: 1001
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobKovacs View Post
But in this case, we've got the president of a major national home builder telling people that prices "home prices "may not have stopped falling yet," adding that it may not "be the best time to buy a home."" That's the exact opposite of the barber analogy, and should be a cause for some concern, dontcha think? I'd be like your barber telling you "nah....you can go a few more months without a cut".

When do you think that Average Joe is going to figure out when the bottom is in, when Matt Lauer says so? Good luck on that.

A careful person would look at the kinds of homes built by Toll Brothers, look at the trends for homes in that price range in the regions/cities where they do business, then consider the facts. Is TB a leading or trailing indicator in the last couple of years? Etc.

Last edited by ParkTwain; 12-06-2007 at 09:51 AM..
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Old 12-07-2007, 12:39 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
403 posts, read 783,485 times
Reputation: 209
Personally, I'm in the camp that believes home prices, over time, reflect inflation.

There are, of course, examples of periods that yielded prices that moved above or below inflation rates. Soldiers returning after WWII and the recent delinking of monthly payments from the actual purchase price resulted in price escalations greater than inflation; spiking interest rates and recessions have caused prices to lag inflation rates during other periods.

I've previously written that my interpretation of the available data leads me to believe that both average and median prices will continue to decline throughout most, if not all, of 2008 and possibly into 2009, finally settling at a level consistent with historical valuations + inflation and traditional spreads over equivalent rental costs.

Despite such a bearish view, my sense is that the outlook presented by Toll Brothers' CEO is, on balance, more reflective of the fact that the building industry is facing competition with which it simply cannot compete as the correction in the market plays out. I'm in no position to put words in the mouth of Robert Toll, but I think that a more accurate statement of his view would have been that now is not the best time to buy a new home.

While the builders can clearly under-price the 70% of resale homes being offered by owner-occupants, it's my view that the return to mean prices is now clearly being driven and accelerated by banks unloading foreclosured assets. This is occurring far more rapidly than even the most prescient analysts anticipated as recently as three months ago; most have still not recognized the full effect for the building industry.

I am currently involved with or tracking multiple transactions in which foreclosed homes are being purchased at prices within 1% of their inflation-adjusted prices of mid-2002. Of course, in no way are these transactions indicative of most in our region - fewer than 1/4 of 1% of homes have asking prices that even approach their 2002 prices - but they are out there for buyers that want to invest the time and energy in finding them.

It's my current view that these types of "deals" will represent between 3% and 5% of the overall housing market by early or mid-2008 before they are snapped up as we begin to exit our current mess in the second half of the year and through 2009.

Quite simply, it is economically unviable for most builders to construct houses on land they purchased in 2004 and 2005 and sell them at prices that can be competitive with the prices I am beginning to see in the REO market.

At least through the first half of 2008, builders are likely to undergo their greatest challenge since the 18% interest rates of the early '80's and perhaps even the Great Depression. In that respect, Bob Toll's statement is, for the building industry anyway, a leading indicator.

Last edited by Eric Young; 12-07-2007 at 12:47 AM..
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Old 12-08-2007, 07:41 PM
 
7 posts, read 13,396 times
Reputation: 11
I can't wait until all these lenders have more property than money. It's just the start.

Sincerly, Selfish Vulture
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Old 12-09-2007, 12:06 PM
 
289 posts, read 685,375 times
Reputation: 81
From a housing blog...

Dec. 7

Las Vegas November Home Sales 'Flatlining'

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors (GLVAR) has released it’s November numbers, and it won’t be a surprise to anyone that the market continues to be in bad shape. Expect the bulls to focus on inventory moderating [‘Tis the season, and nothing to get worked up about] and that sales have been fairly flat the last few months. While the bulls might say the market is "stabilizing", I believe the more accurate term would be "flatlining" Here’s why:



Appreciation [or lack thereof] is the big story for Las Vegas housing- -the median price dropped from $308,000 last year to $273,500 this year for a 11.2% price decline year-over-year. This is nearly unchanged from last month’s 11.4% YOY decline. This is in nominal terms, and not adjusted for inflation.

Sales

Sales have seen very little change in the past few months, although they continue to be down year-over-year. 968 homes sold in Las Vegas in November, compared to 1547 last year for a 37.4% year-over-year decline:



Month’s supply remains practically unchanged. In November there was a 24.3 months supply, as opposed to October’s 24.6. It is the large supply versus demand in Las Vegas that is keeping such downward pressure on the market.



Much has been made of the Bush administration’s subprime bailout program, but this will do virtually nothing to stabilize the market here in Las Vegas. Falling prices, more than ARM resets for subprime borrowers, put homeowners at risk of default. Prices are down 13% from their peak in June 2006. Virtually all Las Vegas buyers in the past couple of years who put 10% or less down on their home purchases are underwater- a great many of them investors.

As investors can’t sell or make payments, and as jobs are lost, as people move or are transferred, more homes will be foreclosed on–and the administration’s plan will do nothing for these homeowners, it will only help the small subset covered by "The Plan."

In spite of the recent slower deterioration of home sales and moderating of inventory, things will get worse before they get better.

Source:
» Las Vegas November Home Sales “Flatlining” - Housing Doom
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Old 12-09-2007, 03:33 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,757 posts, read 20,348,583 times
Reputation: 2661
The market is basically flat. Price is declining at a very slow rate and volume is flat. Inventory is decreasing though I put little stock in that...it is a seasonal thing mostly.

The percentage of REPOs in the mix appears to be stable. Some great buys which are actually turning out to be competitive. The vast majority of the sales are going at prices that have been mostly stable for the last few months.

Is it going to get better? Not enogh information. Could simply be a low before an increased drop in the spring. Could be the bottom leading to a spring upturn. A lot will depend on how the buyers feel.

The only thing getting worse is condo sales. Likely an indication that the low end buyer has been scared off. With all the low end prices dropping one would expect this segment to be picking up...instead it is dying. Priced out of the market wil the REPO condos down 25% from 3 months ago? Does not compute.
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Old 12-09-2007, 06:45 PM
 
Location: Issaquah, WA
818 posts, read 2,602,302 times
Reputation: 239
Is HousingDoom.com considered a reputable source for analysis?
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Old 12-09-2007, 07:58 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,757 posts, read 20,348,583 times
Reputation: 2661
I believe their numbers are correct. However their choices of statistics and presentation is quite slanted.

Standard stunts like publishing year over year differentials. That keeps the numbers negative until they actually exceed last years. So the numbers can go flat or turn around and still look very negative.

Or playing with the origin of the y access. The sales counts are accurate but done with a y axis value that makes it appear that the sales are near zero. The numbers are bad anyway but they are playing games to make it look worse.

The text has little connection to reality.
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Old 12-10-2007, 11:03 AM
 
289 posts, read 685,375 times
Reputation: 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chest Rockwell View Post
Is HousingDoom.com considered a reputable source for analysis?
What, as opposed to the National Association of Realtors?

Housingdoom.com was calling the real estate bust long before it happened, back when all the housing cheerleaders said home prices never decline. We all know how that turned out.

You want to talk slanted? Let's discuss the National Association of Realtor's never-ending litany of spin and lies when it comes to this whole mess. They are the worst bunch of shucksters, spin-meisters, and outright frauds I've ever seen. Even amid come of the worst housing numbers in memory, NAR continues to declare everything is fine and now is a great time to buy a home. Pity the idiots who listen.
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