[SHEPNYC]

Home Builders making fresh lows today on the stock market.

"The challenging market conditions we experienced through the first three quarters of 2007 continued during the fourth quarter," said Jeffrey Mezger, KB Home's chief executive, in the earnings release. He cited a litany of problems for home builders: a glut of homes for sale, rising foreclosures, more competition to close sales, lower affordability, mortgage and credit turmoil, and weak consumer confidence.

"We believe 2008 will be another tough year for the homebuilding industry," said Mezger.

The question is which home builders will survive the shakeout. Any opinions?

Full article below:

KB Home reports loss, says 2008 will be 'another tough year' - MarketWatch

[SHEPNYC]

The National Association of Realtors also said Tuesday it no longer sees even a modest rebound in existing home prices this year, as it had previously forecast, and pushed back its estimate of a full-year uptick in prices to 2009.

Home sales sink as Realtors push back recovery forecast - Jan. 8, 2008

[Eric Young]

Originally Posted by Positiveone

To all the current realtors out there...

When was the last time you sold a home here in Henderson or Vegas? Friday, January 4th.

How often are you yourself getting an actual sale? About one per month.

Also on average how long does it take for one to sell a home in this market? If you're improperly priced (i.e., not getting at least 5 or 6 showings per month), you may never sell. If you are priced properly - and keep yourself priced properly - you'll sell in three months.

[Greatday]

Originally Posted by Eric Young

Also on average how long does it take for one to sell a home in this market? If you're improperly priced (i.e., not getting at least 5 or 6 showings per month), you may never sell. If you are priced properly - and keep yourself priced properly - you'll sell in three months.

Our markets are different, yet similar in many ways. We are averaging 97.8 days on market to sell, with a majority being on the market (in Nov '07) 60 days or less

[gulfer]

Is it me or does it seem that prices have FLATENED out??

[Eric Young]

Originally Posted by gulfer

Is it me or does it seem that prices have FLATENED out??

It's you, Gulfer.

In terms of price per square foot for comparable homes, we dropped 10.8% in the 4th Quarter. Overall, we're down 19.3% from the 2006 Q1 highs.

One thing I didn't mention in my post about the 2007 Q4 decline was that nearly all of that decline occurred in the first six weeks of that quarter...the median held steady in the final six weeks.

Does that mean the "crisis" in housing is over? No - the steepness of the decline is simply beginning to moderate.

Personally, it's my view that we are in the panic or capitulation phase of the downturn. We're on the verge of the bankruptcies (Countrywide, Beazer, WCI, maybe Lennar) and the recession has probably begun.

I've written elsewhere why I think Q1 will offer the best deals long-term. (I had 4 offers on a listing that was aggressively priced and, already this month I've lost out to other bidders on aggressively-priced homes I was attempting to buy).

Despite what's going on at the bottom-of-the-bottom, I believe that median prices still have another 10 points to go. Buyers who put off their purchase until later in the year may not get the outrageously great deal available today, but they will get a very good deal and have a broader selection from which to choose.

[coolricks]

Yesterday, my Astoria seller told me that they are going to raise prices on the new and standing inventory, they started to build 8 new homes?!?!?!? Weird!!!.

[airics]

what is the going rate per sf in vegas at this time? $100?

[Eric Young]

Originally Posted by airics

what is the going rate per sf in vegas at this time? $100?

I track single family detached homes built between 1995 and and 2000 that are below 3000 SF without a pool...they represent 20.2% of all sales in the past three years.

Average price per square foot in Q4 2007 was $154, down 10.8% from $173 in Q3, down 15.3% from $183 in Q4 2006, down 19.3% from $191 at the Q2 2006 high and 11.5% above the median price per square foot of $139 in the 1st quarter of 2004.

Lowest available in popular areas range from $130 PSF in Summerlin to $88 PSF in Aliante. Obviously, 98% of all properties on the market are substantially higher, but those are your lows.

[SHEPNYC]

... bought out for the bargain price of $4 Billion. A year ago it was valued at $25 Billion. Things must be worse than we know.