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Unread 07-25-2007, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas
201 posts, read 632,316 times
Reputation: 80
Semi on topic question. With all that's going on isn't now the "best" time to be a buyer?

Even if prices go down more won't mortgage rates go back up soon thus washing things kind of even?
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Unread 07-25-2007, 02:02 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,759 posts, read 19,044,337 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by ejl127 View Post
Semi on topic question. With all that's going on isn't now the "best" time to be a buyer?

Even if prices go down more won't mortgage rates go back up soon thus washing things kind of even?
An interesting point...and it is a good one. The trick is to get into the market when prices and rates are low. Relatively small increase in rates can defeat a large drop in price.

However at this point in time it is likely that house prices will continue slowly down until year end and it is historical for interest rates to drop in the second half of the year. So if you have the option and no strong drives to buy now I would wait until January/February which will likely be the local low.

From everything I have seen it is a great time to watch.

According to the most knowledgable of the local gurus time is running out for a new home buy. He bases that on a standing inventory position that is now under a month of demand. As that inventory vanishes so do the spifs.

He also projects a big run up coming in rents soon. Simply the impact of the 5,000 a month increase...which is still going on like clockwork. He believes the smart money in the Vegas Valley has gone almost entirely to building new rental apartment buildings. I think that projection is more for 3 to 5 years than immediate. Though it is true that some of the condo conversions have unconverted and a tract of new three story town houses near downtonw has stopped selling and gone to leasing.
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Unread 07-25-2007, 03:26 PM
 
41 posts, read 134,923 times
Reputation: 31
As I said in my thread, I am trying to wait till the end of the year. I also hope "it is historical for interest rates to drop in the second half of the year"

But no one knows the future so I am also afraid that if i am waiting to long, I will lose those" nice incentives"

The hardest thing is to find the best community to live. I am looking a new house in the south so GV is out, probably Southern Highlands (too many houses on sale in 89141, make me wonder) or anthems/7hills area (too expensive).
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Unread 07-25-2007, 05:08 PM
 
Location: South Strip, NV --> Philly (Fall 2009)
2,405 posts, read 6,977,723 times
Reputation: 564
89123 may be what you are looking for...Silverado Ranch, Rancho Las Palmas...they have product similar to Anthem, 7 Hills, and Southern Highlands...at least the tracty parts...
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Unread 07-25-2007, 06:12 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas
201 posts, read 632,316 times
Reputation: 80
My wife and I just purchased thinking home prices won't drop that, that much as well as we figured builder incentives may dry up as well. We can also lock in the current rate and/or we're still 5 months out build wise so if rates go down we can still nail that. Figured we made the best gamble/financial decision for us for now.

Oneway - what about the SW? My wife and I just purchased a KB home in a community called Sunset Ridge. Too me it seems like a tucked away gem. All the way west, new retail etc. going up but not yet too populated or congested and still one minute drive to the 215. There's a few builders/communities to choose from over there.

KB offered us a 20K incentive to do as wish with. Down payment, upgrades, etc. if we went with their lender. This is new yet to be built homes.
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Unread 07-25-2007, 06:32 PM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,759 posts, read 19,044,337 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oneway View Post
As I said in my thread, I am trying to wait till the end of the year. I also hope "it is historical for interest rates to drop in the second half of the year"

But no one knows the future so I am also afraid that if i am waiting to long, I will lose those" nice incentives"

The hardest thing is to find the best community to live. I am looking a new house in the south so GV is out, probably Southern Highlands (too many houses on sale in 89141, make me wonder) or anthems/7hills area (too expensive).
The problem neighborhoods all share similar characteristics. All were built between 2004 and 2006. The have too many investors and too many renters. They likely will never fully recover. If you buy areas built after mid 2006 or before 2004 you will not have an trouble. In general present construction has little of the problem. The problem is actuall worse in the middle...it is homes costing between 300 abd 500K that are in the big problem. The small houses and the big houses sell much better. Everything though is a little slow.

In general one can live anywhere along 215 and get to the south side pretty quick. Consider coming to the inside of 215 ..The Lakes for instance or the areas around Fort Apache and Trop. Or come all the way around to Far Hills. Still a quick commute. Or back behind the new hospital. Some good buys on nice houses in there. Do your homework or get it done. It is the Owner Occupied percentage that is important. Desirably above 80% At least 50% if below 50% don't go there.

Richard Lee was on his mountain today. He observed that the town goes like holy hell for the next five years. Probably pick up close to half a million people. And all the numbers are good to fantasitic. The bad news is if you think traffic bad now...you ain't seen nothing...

Lee is advocating establishment of local neighborhoods so you generally don't travel large distances. Then again he thinks Coyote Springs will be loaded with commuters to Las Vegas. We shall see.

Ohh an interesting number. Lee says the rule is you save $2,000 in home costs for every minute in your commute.
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Unread 07-25-2007, 09:15 PM
 
41 posts, read 134,923 times
Reputation: 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by ejl127 View Post
My wife and I just purchased thinking home prices won't drop that, that much as well as we figured builder incentives may dry up as well. We can also lock in the current rate and/or we're still 5 months out build wise so if rates go down we can still nail that. Figured we made the best gamble/financial decision for us for now.

Oneway - what about the SW? My wife and I just purchased a KB home in a community called Sunset Ridge. Too me it seems like a tucked away gem. All the way west, new retail etc. going up but not yet too populated or congested and still one minute drive to the 215. There's a few builders/communities to choose from over there.

KB offered us a 20K incentive to do as wish with. Down payment, upgrades, etc. if we went with their lender. This is new yet to be built homes.

I am working at GV so Southwest is little bit to far. I notice that the traffic is bad around 5PM in I215 going west after I15. I am considering outside Southern Highlands (north of cactus), basically right outside SH. They have some new builders which i believe they started in 2006 so I hope these houses do not have many renters. The Silverado Ranch Bridge at I15 is almost done, so my commute would not be bad through this route and St. Rose is an alternative route. I live outside Anthem area right now and I like the area so does my family, lot of parks/shopping/close to work. But the house prices are way to high, I think.

Richmonds are offering 20-40k incentives right now in SH area and some other builders are offering similar incentives. It is hard to resist eventhough, i think I will have to wait till the end of the year to get better deals. We'll see.

There arre only 3 builders in Silverado ranch, one of them is duplexes, 2 of them are more than 400k, i am looking low 300k. Also in south of maryland pkwy above the 7 hills, there are lot of houses for sale and it was built in 04 and 05. The price is very good for 2000Sqf. I think this area has too many investors and too many renters. olecapt is correct. I just realized this. Thx for the advices.
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Unread 07-26-2007, 12:02 AM
 
Location: South Strip, NV --> Philly (Fall 2009)
2,405 posts, read 6,977,723 times
Reputation: 564
Warmington has some homes along Spencer or Maryland that are new builds and I believe start in the mid-200s...most of that area is really small boxy looking houses, with maybe 1 or 2 windows, or 3 stories...
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Unread 07-26-2007, 08:24 AM
 
89 posts, read 198,604 times
Reputation: 23
Some analysts think new-home prices would have fallen even further if not for all the incentives - high-end kitchens and the like - that builders are offering.

When you start selling homes for $400,000 that were $500,000, all the homeowners who paid $500,000 are going to be in your sales office complaining, saying, “Why are you doing this to me? Why don’t you just put a sign on my lawn saying, ‘I’m a *******?’ ” So you’ve got to give incentives instead of lowering prices because you don’t want to be rude, crude and barbaric to your clients.

Believe it or not, most are too stupid to realize that the giveaways are the same thing as lowering the price. Is America great or what?
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Unread 07-26-2007, 10:45 AM
 
Location: NW Las Vegas - Lone Mountain
15,759 posts, read 19,044,337 times
Reputation: 2661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oneway View Post
I am working at GV so Southwest is little bit to far. I notice that the traffic is bad around 5PM in I215 going west after I15. I am considering outside Southern Highlands (north of cactus), basically right outside SH. They have some new builders which i believe they started in 2006 so I hope these houses do not have many renters. The Silverado Ranch Bridge at I15 is almost done, so my commute would not be bad through this route and St. Rose is an alternative route. I live outside Anthem area right now and I like the area so does my family, lot of parks/shopping/close to work. But the house prices are way to high, I think.

Richmonds are offering 20-40k incentives right now in SH area and some other builders are offering similar incentives. It is hard to resist eventhough, i think I will have to wait till the end of the year to get better deals. We'll see.

There arre only 3 builders in Silverado ranch, one of them is duplexes, 2 of them are more than 400k, i am looking low 300k. Also in south of maryland pkwy above the 7 hills, there are lot of houses for sale and it was built in 04 and 05. The price is very good for 2000Sqf. I think this area has too many investors and too many renters. olecapt is correct. I just realized this. Thx for the advices.
The rule on new builders is reasonably clear...the good spifs are offered only on standing inventory. The standing inventory is now down to less than a month of demand so will likely be gone in 90 days. The regular deals with not yet built houses are the same old builder stuff. Ten to twenty cents on the dollar contribution to home value. Note that builders stll demand and get around 15% to the resale market price. So you need about a 23 or 24% increase to break even. That is not terrrible but you likely need to be in the house for four or five years at this point in the cycle. Most of the gurus who I think get it straight are suggesting the next year with significant appreciation will be 2009. I personally think their crystal ball lacks the range to get there...but I do believe them that nothing much is going to go on for the next 6 months and that any kind of a big runup in 2008 is unlikely.

Then again nobody sees the slow decline in prices getting much worse. So those waiting for the big bubble burst should not hold their breath.
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