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Old 03-05-2011, 08:40 AM
 
14 posts, read 25,201 times
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Does anyone actually play any of these for a living? I mean $200 a day or better.

If so, what's your secret? I know many try and lose but surely some have the answer.
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Old 03-05-2011, 08:46 AM
 
2,251 posts, read 3,256,316 times
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No, that's mathematically impossible without cheating. Those are all games of chance and the odds favor the house. You can win one day, one week, even one month but in the long run if you play often you will lose.

Hold Em is a game of skill and that's why there are numerous professionals. Even then of course the pros rely on amateurs, hobbyists, etc. to make their money. If they all just played each other it'd be a nightmare lol.
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Old 03-05-2011, 09:42 AM
 
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As a local, you'd be wiped out entirely if you get into them. So many sad stories abound. Unless you play poker, we learn to stay out of the casinos.
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Old 03-05-2011, 10:16 AM
 
Location: Here and there, you decide.
9,569 posts, read 15,025,682 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjameson922 View Post
As a local, you'd be wiped out entirely if you get into them. So many sad stories abound. Unless you play poker, we learn to stay out of the casinos.
Except if we work at one, of course
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Old 03-05-2011, 12:02 PM
 
781 posts, read 979,735 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tonetls View Post
Does anyone actually play any of these for a living? I mean $200 a day or better.

If so, what's your secret? I know many try and lose but surely some have the answer.

NO! Why do people ever think this is possible? Why do you think casinos spread these games? Look up the odds on them. They're all negative expectation (meaning, over the long run, you'll put in more than you take out). The house does not spread positive expectation games, else they'd go broke.

The only games that are beatable (without cheating) are:
1) Traditional poker, where you're playing against other players, and where the house takes a small percentage of every pot, or charges players a time-based fee to play. Note that this does not include all the dumbass "poker" table games you'll find intermixed with Blackjack and the like - those are not really poker; players are betting directly against the house.

2) Blackjack, if you count cards. Still possible, though you generally have to team count very well to not get caught. And even then....gotta have favorable rules, and be very good at it, etc.

3) Sportsbetting. Theoretically possible, but like the stock market, you have to have better information or better analytics than the crowd. Not an easy task over the long-run. And the stock market is a positive sum game anyways, since that's where benefits from society's innovations end up.

4) Casino Promotions: Sometimes they screw up the math and promotions end up positive expectation for the players. This is rare, and to find it, you'll need to be good at math (which you clearly are not).


This thread jacks my world view a little, honestly. I though that most people in Vegas (at least locals) understood that the house has an unbeatable long-term mathematical edge, and viewed playing these games purely as entertainment. I guess that's, sadly, not the case.
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Old 03-05-2011, 12:08 PM
 
Location: Kingman AZ
15,379 posts, read 23,229,696 times
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SHHHHHHH Robustus.....we need more Suckers.......
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Old 03-05-2011, 12:12 PM
 
781 posts, read 979,735 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dynimagelv View Post
SHHHHHHH Robustus.....we need more Suckers.......
Heh... We need tourist suckers who come, have fun, and go. We do not need locals busting themselves completely and being degenerate drags on our local economy.
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Old 03-05-2011, 12:14 PM
 
3,996 posts, read 2,273,329 times
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^
Hehehe, no tapping the aquarium.

But, Roulette and Baccarat can't be beaten long term. BJ can, and if the casinos figure out you're doing it (and they ARE looking for that), you're not playing it any more.

Poker can be, because the casinos don't care (they get their cut either way.)

Craps maybe be beatable. Not on math though. Some believe there is a way of bending the outcome of the dice rolls to change the odds. This is not generally accepted though.
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Old 03-05-2011, 12:57 PM
 
Location: Kingman AZ
15,379 posts, read 23,229,696 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robustus View Post
Heh... We need tourist suckers who come, have fun, and go. We do not need locals busting themselves completely and being degenerate drags on our local economy.

He's not local.......not Local equals fair game he he he


ZIP Code
64086
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Old 03-05-2011, 01:08 PM
 
781 posts, read 979,735 times
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I guess there are some caveats on roulette:
1) In the past, people have found and exploited biased (ie, broken) roulette wheels. This typically involves taking notes on thousands of spins and analyzing the statistical outcomes. It's hard to imagine there'd still be biased wheels in play anywhere in this country, though, with today's tech.

2) You can beat roulette with a computer. Claude Shannon did this decades ago (google him - pretty interesting). Basically, you can get some probability that the ball is going to land in a certain quadrant of the wheel by calculating it's velocity and then making your bet AFTER you get that data-point. Since the ball always drops at the same velocity, you just need to grab it's velocity and position wrt the wheel once, make your calcs (via a computer), and then make your bet accordingly. I think I recall reading that Shannon's edge was in excess of 25%. Booya.
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