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Old 01-05-2013, 01:06 AM
 
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It seems the real estate trend in Vegas is that prices are on an upward trend. Inventory low (Jan 2013). Banks are holding back on foreclosures, releasing them periodically and short sales have till end on 2013 to sell.
The fiscal cliff has been negotiated, so no economic doom is expected, the debt ceiling is next, but "kick the can down the road " mentality is expected.
With interest rates so low, 3-4%, would you say that this is good time to buy? Will the dollar go down? Does that have any bearing here?

Should people buy brand new homes since it seems that inventory is low in Vegas and homes are being snapped up again (like before the real estate collapse) ?

Of course this is specific to Las Vegas, Nevada.
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Old 01-05-2013, 02:52 PM
 
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Hard to say, it seems like total bubble land to me right now.

A property I walked away from in September (kicking myself now), was picked up at 270k (same price I was under contract at) and relisted less than 3 months later for 375k and was under contract within days (the seller did minimal improvements, maybe 15k).

Desireable areas such as Anthem seem to be moving up at an amazing rate. I used to see a bit of a "ceiling" at 400k price levels where things wouldn't move so quickly, that ceiling seems to be 500k now.

That said, I don't see anything on the horizon that would lower prices. It's hard to say if upward prices can continue, it seems that some areas, prices are already pretty high. Low interest rates are making it extremely cheap to buy.

More buyers are coming on the market daily since people who short sold 2-3 years ago are now eligible to buy again.

One realtor said the number of people 90 days late or better is over 100,000. If that is the case (not sure where that number came from), then there are a lot of future foreclosures, but if they stretch it out over 5 years, those homes become more like a blip.
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Old 01-05-2013, 04:13 PM
 
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I don't remotely believe the 100,000 90 days late. You got 540,000 residences in Clark County. 70% with mortgages gives us 378,000. So far we have had 200,000 foreclosures or short sales. That leaves 178,000 with original mortgages. So he would have us believe that the majority of mortgages holders in Clark County are 90 days or more late? I would expect we are down to under 50,000 under water mortgages and maybe a quarter of those are delinquent. So maybe 15,000 would be more rational.

I have been looking at the trends in Sun City Summerlin a market where we work heavily. It is clearly a split market. The homes selling above 300K have not moved significantly in 2012. Been at 150 to 160 per SF the entire year. The rate of sales is roughly 4 per months as it has been for some years. The homes below $300K however hit a low of about $100 per SF in February and are now just above $120 per SF.

We note similar behavior in the small condos and town houses. Many tracts are up a third since February.

I also took a look at the non tract half acres in 89129 and 89149. There is an apparent price rise but it vanishes if you look at the non-distressed homes only. What is actually happening is that discounted distressed housing is vanishing from the mix effectively raising the price point by 10 or 15%.

Both the Clark County overall median and mean are up sharply. This is likely driven more by rises at the bottom rather than the top.

So I think we have a reasonably strong up at the lower end of the market coupled with the disappearance of the heavily discounted distressed properties creating a virtual price increase. Real to the buyer but not to the seller.
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Old 01-05-2013, 04:48 PM
 
Location: The North
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc View Post
I don't remotely believe the 100,000 90 days late. You got 540,000 residences in Clark County. 70% with mortgages gives us 378,000. So far we have had 200,000 foreclosures or short sales. That leaves 178,000 with original mortgages. So he would have us believe that the majority of mortgages holders in Clark County are 90 days or more late? I would expect we are down to under 50,000 under water mortgages and maybe a quarter of those are delinquent. So maybe 15,000 would be more rational.

I have been looking at the trends in Sun City Summerlin a market where we work heavily. It is clearly a split market. The homes selling above 300K have not moved significantly in 2012. Been at 150 to 160 per SF the entire year. The rate of sales is roughly 4 per months as it has been for some years. The homes below $300K however hit a low of about $100 per SF in February and are now just above $120 per SF.

We note similar behavior in the small condos and town houses. Many tracts are up a third since February.

I also took a look at the non tract half acres in 89129 and 89149. There is an apparent price rise but it vanishes if you look at the non-distressed homes only. What is actually happening is that discounted distressed housing is vanishing from the mix effectively raising the price point by 10 or 15%.

Both the Clark County overall median and mean are up sharply. This is likely driven more by rises at the bottom rather than the top.

So I think we have a reasonably strong up at the lower end of the market coupled with the disappearance of the heavily discounted distressed properties creating a virtual price increase. Real to the buyer but not to the seller.
Good analysis. I think the real question is are homebuyers just looking for bargains or are they willing to accept prices are what they are and start buying closer to retail? There were some interested last two years at all the great prices caused by distressed supply, but I bet many or most were just put off with the whole process of how the homes were sold whether it was the 6 month wait on a short or the foreclosure process where tons of offers and all cash buyers pretty much excluded the normal buyer.

The whole market has been crazy for years in all sorts of directions, can the Vegas market actually settle down and be somewhat normal?
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Old 01-07-2013, 01:23 PM
 
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A little anecdotal evidence of the craziness. We had our agent call on this house, 2254 Morning Mesa, The listing agent told her to come by because she would be showing in the afternoon on Sunday. There were four other cars there when we showed up including a doctor with Maryland plates. Nice house, we passed because we didn't like the layout. Someone was already planning where they'd put their furniture.

This wasn't an open house, we called an hour before we showed up but houses are going so quickly that we didn't want to take the chance of missing a house we liked. A year ago I thought we could get a house for between 250k and 300k, now I have started looking at houses over 350k. This is getting very discouraging. Some more inventory better come on the market or things could get bubblicious again and that never ends well.
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Old 01-07-2013, 01:29 PM
 
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Originally Posted by tbill618 View Post
A little anecdotal evidence of the craziness. We had our agent call on this house, 2254 Morning Mesa, The listing agent told her to come by because she would be showing in the afternoon on Sunday. There were four other cars there when we showed up including a doctor with Maryland plates. Nice house, we passed because we didn't like the layout. Someone was already planning where they'd put their furniture.

This wasn't an open house, we called an hour before we showed up but houses are going so quickly that we didn't want to take the chance of missing a house we liked. A year ago I thought we could get a house for between 250k and 300k, now I have started looking at houses over 350k. This is getting very discouraging. Some more inventory better come on the market or things could get bubblicious again and that never ends well.
Could you tell if the others seemed like investors or were looking for a house to live in?
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Old 01-07-2013, 01:51 PM
 
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Originally Posted by newopty View Post
Could you tell if the others seemed like investors or were looking for a house to live in?
All were multiple people, some were families with small kids. Since I didn't see a person who was on their own, which would be my guess as to how an investor would look, I think these were all people looking for a place to live.
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Old 01-07-2013, 02:32 PM
 
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Thanks for the info, it's always good to hear first hand how things are going.

I notice that area (89052) is pretty much as hot as can be. I would be extremely surprised if prices slow down in that specific area, even as more properties come in the market.

There is just too much demand for a couple small (nice) areas of the valley.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tbill618 View Post
A little anecdotal evidence of the craziness. We had our agent call on this house, 2254 Morning Mesa, The listing agent told her to come by because she would be showing in the afternoon on Sunday. There were four other cars there when we showed up including a doctor with Maryland plates. Nice house, we passed because we didn't like the layout. Someone was already planning where they'd put their furniture.

This wasn't an open house, we called an hour before we showed up but houses are going so quickly that we didn't want to take the chance of missing a house we liked. A year ago I thought we could get a house for between 250k and 300k, now I have started looking at houses over 350k. This is getting very discouraging. Some more inventory better come on the market or things could get bubblicious again and that never ends well.
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Old 01-08-2013, 10:26 AM
 
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And it's gone. 2254 Morning Mesa is under contract. It will be interesting to see the price.

The first house we bid on was offered at 240k, we bid 260k and were told that there were 23 bidders and we weren't invited back for the next round of bidding. I thought this might have been a realtor tall tale but that house eventually sold for 290k.
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Old 01-08-2013, 11:56 AM
 
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That's a pretty nice place. I suspect it would sell for 350k+ today.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tbill618 View Post
The first house we bid on was offered at 240k, we bid 260k and were told that there were 23 bidders and we weren't invited back for the next round of bidding. I thought this might have been a realtor tall tale but that house eventually sold for 290k.
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