04-22-2013, 04:14 AM
Location: Sunrise
10,864 posts, read
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Reputation: 9084
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Trader Joe99
Higher interest rates will kill real estate or housing interest AND will kill our baby recovery. When will housing reach a bottom: when interest rates are around 20%. Keep your powder dry.
I cannot believe that interest rates will hit 20% when the Fed is simply printing monopoly money. I'd be very much surprised if they hit 5% in two years. Or even 6% in five years. What are you basing your predictions on?
04-22-2013, 08:53 AM
Location: ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻ ̡
7,112 posts, read
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Reputation: 3900
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Trader Joe99
Higher interest rates will kill real estate or housing interest AND will kill our baby recovery. When will housing reach a bottom: when interest rates are around 20%. Keep your powder dry.
Ok...
You are finally starting to make some sense, at least when talking about interest rates. I am currently at 3.1%. I know that I will NEVER EVER be able to refinance any lower than that(except to 2.7% if I switch to 15 years, which I may soon do)...
Anyway, IF interests rates climbed to 20%(which I don't think will happen) but lets say it did. How will this affect people like myself that purchased near the bottoms or investors? Investors will still receive their rental income and primary home owners still have a low mortgage. So what if properties are worth $30K?
20% interest rates would price a lot of people out of the market. Better to get in now than later.
Motorola DynaTAC 8000x
04-22-2013, 09:09 AM
Location: really close to Mount Si
391 posts, read
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
von949
" In 2006, Las Vegas had 112,000 workers employed in construction, a rate three times the national average. Today that number is under 35,000."
I believe the home interest rates going the way of a Latin American country is a straw man's argument. One heck of a what if. More than the housing market will be having issues if something so radical occurs.
As for the linked article, the key point within it (on housing) is the effects of AB 284 and how the market may or may not be affected by it. "Shadow inventory", what have you. If that spigot opens up, the artificiality will go like APPL stock, which currently isn't good for those that bought at $700. Oops, lol? Now, how big a manipulation and whether or not all that inventory will open up and cause a sudden devaluation in the next five years (five years is my event horizon, others may be one year, etc)
should be a concern for any smart homeowner or speculator. It definitely is for me and I'm neither.
04-22-2013, 09:51 AM
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Reputation: 11902
In the end most people buying houses to live in are payment buyers. Some have cash, but most need a mortgage. Given that, housing prices will inversely track interest rates. Assuming a buyer can afford the payment they bought the house at, they can always refinance to a lower rate if that's available. So basically a buyer is better off buying when rates are high. They'll pay a lower price. If rates drop, they can then refinance to a lower payment. If you buy when rates are low, and then rates pop, the value of the property will drop, and there's nothing you can really do about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
von949
Ok...
04-22-2013, 11:02 AM
244 posts, read
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Reputation: 204
Manipulation?
Housing Recovery: Statistical Manipulation - Foreclosurepedia
"When the prices go back up; prices with respect to the mortgage backed securities (MBS)/toxic assets, we are going to see this new bubble burst. Smoke and mirrors folks; just another dog and pony show."
04-22-2013, 11:41 AM
28,803 posts, read
47,675,571 times
Reputation: 37905
Quote:
Originally Posted by
von949
Ok...20% interest rates would price a lot of people out of the market. Better to get in now than later.
We'd love to see this if the corresponding drop in prices would follow. Loan? What loan?
04-22-2013, 12:01 PM
12,973 posts, read
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Reputation: 5478
Whole discussion based on the connection between interest rate and price.
However such a connection does not actually exist. Certainly an interest rate increase would tend to drive prices higher - but there are many other factors.
Here is a discussion of the subject including a Shiller chart showing it is not a very strong correlation.
How Rising Interest Rates Affect Home Prices - Daniel Indiviglio - The Atlantic
Las Vegas pricing continues to increase at a very high rate. Inventory remains low. So the probability is of a maintenance of the present trends.
There are a number of people out there projecting a downturn this year. No sign of it in the present data.
04-22-2013, 12:07 PM
8 posts, read
10,101 times
Reputation: 84
What about wages going up w/ inflation?
If we get some inflation then most wages will go up with it. So if you buy a home now with a mortgage at todays low rates you could pay it off sooner with the higher wages you would be making as long as the other goods you need to live off of do not get hyper inflated.
04-22-2013, 12:15 PM
Location: Sunrise
10,864 posts, read
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Reputation: 9084
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mrlocksmith
If we get some inflation then most wages will go up with it. So if you buy a home now with a mortgage at todays low rates you could pay it off sooner with the higher wages you would be making as long as the other goods you need to live off of do not get hyper inflated.
Agreed. The reasons for "buy a house" or "buy a house quick as you can" and even "buy many houses" are compelling. This entire thread appears to be a debate between "people who have taken an economics course at some point in their lives" vs. "those who haven't."
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Urban houses (%)
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House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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What about wages going up w/ inflation?
