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Old 05-06-2013, 11:50 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
548 posts, read 1,002,334 times
Reputation: 774

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trader Joe99 View Post
Observer53, $80 per sq is just my own comfortability zone and in line with local wages. As you know Las Vegas is mostly a blue collar town with hardworking people in casino industry and other service supported industries. Jobs in Las Vegas are mostly low paying service jobs. Las Vegas, same is true with other cities, needs lower housing prices, not higher prices.
Why are lower housing prices lower food prices, lower gas prices and etc not good for Americans?

I don't believe in DEBT and can't stand when other people are trying to lure uneducated and unaware buyers into more debt or higher debt.
We need to cut DEBT and not create even more debt.
Our problem is a huge amount of DEBT in this country.
That why I want to see higher interest rates, deflation to finaly kick in and flush all speculators and debtors who took debt at the end of the growing business cycle.
Time to start rewarding responsible savers, not speculators and gamblers.
If I understand your point....you think that buyers should limit the debt that they assume when buying a house and therefore should not pay more than $80 SF. In other words, the debt acquired by the buyer correlates to the price per SF of the home purchased? I cannot agree with that logic. If you want to argue that buyers should limit their debt when purchasing a home, there are plenty of ways to measure that debt. But the price per SF of the home being purchased is not one of them. Argue that buyers should purchase smaller homes with lower sales prices perhaps, but the price per SF is simply not relevant.

You also seem to be saying that the amount of debt in plain dollars taken on by a buyer is relevant to the average wages earned in LV. That might make sense if the buyer's income is like that of the average wage earner in LV, but of course, many of the home buyers here have income not like the average wage earners. So for an individual earning $200,000 per year, do you think they can pay more per SF because they might require less debt to purchase a $150,000 home? Or for an individual earning $35,000 per year, do you think they should pay less per SF because they might require more debt to purchase a $150,000 home?

If the question we are addressing is the SF price of a home that is a safe investment in terms of future appreciation or lower risk of depreciation, neither the debt needed to make the purchase nor the wages of the buyer makes any difference. I am trying to see your point TraderJoe, but I haven't found it yet.

 
Old 05-06-2013, 11:53 PM
 
Location: The North
4,962 posts, read 8,679,624 times
Reputation: 3832
Quote:
Originally Posted by WestieJeff View Post
Sorry the facts don't back up your guesses. household income is around 50k. Salt Lake, Denver, etc. have similar household income and higher median home prices compared to Vegas.

Keep riding your horse, regardless if you're right or wrong about the debt in the country, your opinion is yours only and doesn't affect 99% of the country that doesn't care.
Not quite correct, Las Vegas MSA is $42k which is well below Salt Lake and Denver, but agree the poster is off the mark with the assessment of Las Vegas being mostly low wage workers.
 
Old 05-07-2013, 12:03 AM
 
1,681 posts, read 3,045,042 times
Reputation: 1776
Direct from Census, 2007-2011:

Las Vegas, City: $54,174
Clark, County: $55,961

Salt Lake, City: $44,501
Denver, City: $47,499
Denver, County: $47,499

Quote:
Originally Posted by Willy702 View Post
Not quite correct, Las Vegas MSA is $42k which is well below Salt Lake and Denver, but agree the poster is off the mark with the assessment of Las Vegas being mostly low wage workers.
 
Old 05-07-2013, 12:34 AM
 
674 posts, read 754,882 times
Reputation: 429
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trader Joe99 View Post
We need to cut DEBT and not create even more debt.
Our problem is a huge amount of DEBT in this country.
That why I want to see higher interest rates, deflation to finaly kick in and flush all speculators and debtors who took debt at the end of the growing business cycle.
Time to start rewarding responsible savers, not speculators and gamblers.
Agreed...and those that saved and were able to take advantage of great returns on RE...what's wrong with that? I sense some bitterness due to having missed the boat.
 
Old 05-07-2013, 01:30 AM
 
59 posts, read 79,905 times
Reputation: 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by aardogfsu View Post
Agreed...and those that saved and were able to take advantage of great returns on RE...what's wrong with that? I sense some bitterness due to having missed the boat.
Oh here we go again with missed the boat or buy now or be priced out forever.
I haven't missed out on anything when it comes to this latest run up in housing.
My return alone on home builder stocks was well over 100%, yes 100% and up. (KBH for example that I bought at low $7 and sold at $19.74.
It's hard to go short against the Mad Man Bernanke but I'm watching this market closely and
will not hesitate to SHORT home builder stocks to the ground again and make
a fortune on the huge leg down that is eventually coming. In the mean time I'm collecting nice dividends from solid and conservative companies with a great balance sheets. Bought some gold and silver recently and will
add more if we see lower prices.

But again housing market is not a stock market.
Here is a interesting article that everyone should read.

Wall Street Takes A Huge Gamble On Las Vegas | Wall Street Fool
 
Old 05-07-2013, 02:45 AM
 
674 posts, read 754,882 times
Reputation: 429
I agree a lot with what you are calling out in the big picture of the economy though I find it odd you'd be LONG home builder stocks while against believing in a real estate recovery. DOW is up 40% at the same time some home builder stocks are up 100% since 2011, so for you to be insanely confident that home builder stocks would beat the general market at a rate of 2.5x while simultaneously calling for the RE market to bottom even further makes zero sense. Complete enigma.
 
Old 05-07-2013, 03:17 AM
 
59 posts, read 79,905 times
Reputation: 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by aardogfsu View Post
I agree a lot with what you are calling out in the big picture of the economy though I find it odd you'd be LONG home builder stocks while against believing in a real estate recovery. DOW is up 40% at the same time some home builder stocks are up 100% since 2011, so for you to be insanely confident that home builder stocks would beat the general market at a rate of 2.5x while simultaneously calling for the RE market to bottom even further makes zero sense. Complete enigma.
I have been saying all along that stock market and housing market shouldn't be alike. Stocks go up on speculations, on rumors, on sentiment, on greed on anything but fundamentals. Ever wonder why the company just reported good earnings and has beaten the street expectations but sold off and
is going down? Same thing with silver and
Gold today. It trades purely on sentiment, fundamentals don't matter at all.

We shouldn't make housing market another wall street casino game.
I'dont mind trading housing stocks or go long or short on the stock market, but housing shouldn't be a speculators game.
Americans need affordable housing, Las Vegas need affordable housing. Economy is really not improving, it can't really improve until we destroy all the bad debt.

Here is my investment advice to you, buy some gold and silver at these levels. Silver can still go down to 22 or even $19 but once this final flush is over my price target for silver is $60, even $90 and my price target for gold is $2400.

Cheers!!!

Last edited by Trader Joe99; 05-07-2013 at 03:26 AM..
 
Old 05-07-2013, 03:27 AM
 
16,438 posts, read 18,516,574 times
Reputation: 9490
Quote:
Originally Posted by aardogfsu View Post
In where I've invested rent is up 5%-8%, housing is up 50%-70%.
I'm out, you guys can keep on buying.
Same here. This game is rigged.
 
Old 05-07-2013, 04:16 AM
 
Location: Happy wherever I am - Florida now
3,359 posts, read 10,635,552 times
Reputation: 3812
I'm seeing the same thing here in Florida. Most of the houses in any particular area snatched up overnight, houses taken off the market and relisted the next day for 20% more, asking prices up as much as 50% higher than their neighbor sold for a few months ago. Seems it sprung up from nowhere. This isn't happening on all houses just the ones targeted by institutional buyers (here it's 3/2 masonry less than 20yrs old), and to a degree individual investors. There are still foreclosures available if you want to wait.

Read up on Blackstone and it's affiliates. Just like they grabbed up mortgages wholesale and packaged them for investors to cause the housing bubble they are now using the same strategy by actually buying the houses and packaging them for institutional investors, renting them out in the mean time. From one day to the next after they've hit town families can be shut out of the market or be forced to compromise. A quick inflated turn like this is not good. I see problems down the road.
 
Old 05-07-2013, 05:52 AM
 
Location: Washington State
15,365 posts, read 8,031,052 times
Reputation: 13166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trader Joe99 View Post
Observer53, $80 per sq is just my own comfortability zone and in line with local wages. As you know Las Vegas is mostly a blue collar town with hardworking people in casino industry and other service supported industries. Jobs in Las Vegas are mostly low paying service jobs. Las Vegas, same is true with other cities, needs lower housing prices, not higher prices.
Why are lower housing prices lower food prices, lower gas prices and etc not good for Americans?

I don't believe in DEBT and can't stand when other people are trying to lure uneducated and unaware buyers into more debt or higher debt.
We need to cut DEBT and not create even more debt.
Our problem is a huge amount of DEBT in this country.
That why I want to see higher interest rates, deflation to finaly kick in and flush all speculators and debtors who took debt at the end of the growing business cycle.
Time to start rewarding responsible savers, not speculators and gamblers.
Agree with most of your comments TJ. But you need to also factor in cost of construction and location. If a buyer wants a certain location and certain level of amenities, you'll never get it with a set sq ft rate for an entire metro area.

You're correct that Vegas is mostly lower wages compared to many cities. However, the house prices in Vegas are still lower than most of those cities and there is a significant draw of retirees and people with money to live in Vegas and enjoy the no state income tax advantages and weather and entertaiment in Vegas...those are factors affecting the house prices there as well. With house prices of around $160K and interest rates so low, if you're going to be in the area for several years, cheaper to buy right now than rent.
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